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За сто дней наблюдения около-военных обсуждений в русском секторе ЖЖ увидел, что иммигранты-ватники обязательно трамписты. Ни одного исключения. Но не все трамписты — ватники.
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Подведу итоги. С начала войны я ходил по российским блогам и пытался понять, насколько реальность отличается от опросов Левады. Левада стабильно показывает долю нормальных людей в России на уровне 3-5%. Судя по блогам, их там процентов 10-15%. Это больше, чем я ожидал, но слишком мало для того, чтобы ситуация изменилась изнутри. Поэтому война будет продолжаться, пока мстительная гнида Путин физически не потеряет возможность убивать Украину. Следовательно, Lend–Lease и санкции критически необходимы для его сдерживания. Значит, в будущем я буду голосовать за кандидатов, предлагающих наиболее жесткую политику по отношению к России.

На этом мое неформальное исследование закончено, и русский вопрос для меня закрыт.

P.S. Обнаружил фундаментальную разницу в понимании коллективной ответственности между американцами и русскими. Американцы понимают, что если полиция города незаконно убивает граждан, то родственники убитых получают по суду компенсацию от города. Эта компенсация выплачивается из налогов, т.е. жители города несут коллективную ответственность за убийства. Кроме того, цена на недвижимость в городе падает, поэтому жители несут дополнительную коллективную ответственность. Бездействие полиции оплачивается жителями города по той же схеме.

В силу государственного устройства, русские, как правило, ничего такого не понимают и идея коллективной отвественности, например, за разрушение и убийства в Украине, им чужда.
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https://www.levada.ru/2022/04/28/konflikt-s-ukrainoj-i-otvetstvennost-za-gibel-mirnyh-zhitelej/

Хорошие новости: до войны только 3% считали Россию ответственной за эскалацию и не боялись об этом говорить. А теперь уже целых 7%!
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Then ruled the Kazi* of Battle, in whose ordinance is no wrong, for a seal is on his lips and he speaketh not; and the blood railed in rills and purfled earth with curious embroidery; heads grew gray and hotter waxed battle and fiercer. Feet slipped and stood firm the valiant and pushed forwards, whilst turned the faint-heart and fled, nor did they leave fighting till the day darkened and the night starkened.

--- The Book Of The THOUSAND NIGHTS AND A NIGHT, Vol 7, the 638th night.
https://gutenberg.org/files/3441/3441-h/3441-h.htm


* Kazi - судья.
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“There are, after all, two kinds of growth. One proceeds gradually, allowing adjustments to environments as environments adjust to whatever’s new. Skillful growers can shape this process.

The other kind of growth defies environments. It’s inner-directed, and hence outwardly oblivious. It resists cultivation, setting its own direction, pace, and purpose. Anticipating no obstacles, it makes no compromises. Like an unchecked predator, an ineradicable weed, or a metastasizing cancer, it fails to see where it’s going until it’s too late. It sequentially consumes its surroundings, and ultimately itself.”
...
That’s the difference, fundamental in strategy, between respecting constraints and denying their existence.

--- John Lewis Gaddis. “On Grand Strategy.”


It's more about the relationship between external vs internal detection and control capabilities, rather than fundamental kinds of growth. The cancer example is particularly telling because during the early stages it can be dealt with relatively easily, while in a metastasizing phase it's almost impossible to contain, at least for now. The same applies to a chain reaction.
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Long time ago, professor Searle explained to us that the German and the Japanese societies chose democracy and peace after the WWWII not because they suddenly realized the advantages of democracy and peace. Rather, he said, it happened because they were utterly defeated militarily and their economies were largely destroyed. Rebuilding an empire, like that happened in post-WWI Germany, was not an option. As the result, the people of Germany and Japan reaped enormous benefits of democracy and peace, restoring and exceeding their earlier standings in the world.

Given the current Russian aggression against the Ukrainian state, we need to make sure that a similar mental shift happens in the Russian society. It will take a while, though. I hope it won't take another WW; therefore, crippling economic sanctions would be a good start. It also helps that Putin is doing everything in his power to cripple his own country himself. Moreover, I don't think being friends with China is a good option for him either. Because who needs enemies if you have a cunning and powerful friend like China?

BTW, I don't know how to translate "недобитая [империя]" into English. Google offers "unfinished" but it doesn't sound right to me.
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The usage of the term asabiya has several advantages. The most important reason is that it has very little theoretical baggage, because (unfortunately) few people are familiar with lbn Khaldun's writings.

Peter Turchin. Historical Dynamics: Why States Rise and Fall.

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Лучше быть молодым и здоровым, чем старым и больным.



Sweden's Health Agency said this week that large-scale testing was too expensive in relation to the benefits. Sweden spent around 500 million Swedish crowns (S$70 million) a week on testing for the first five weeks of this year and around 24 billion crowns since the start of the pandemic.


https://www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/sweden-declares-covid-19-pandemic-over-despite-warnings-from-scientists

The bet is that people in high-risk groups can individually afford the burden of precaution and it's inefficient to tax the entire society.
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The execution of Malaysian drug trafficker, Nagaenthran K. Dharmalingam, was stayed after he tested positive for Covid-19.

He was scheduled to be hanged on Wednesday for drug trafficking.

The statement said that Nagaenthran, who opted not to be vaccinated, will receive medical attention and proceedings will resume on a date to be fixed, after he has recovered.


https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/courts-crime/drug-trafficker-facing-execution-gets-further-stay-after-testing-positive-for
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Good news!

Influenza, usually raging throughout the Northern Hemisphere this time of year, has become virtually invisible.

It is a small bright spot amid Covid-19, although the number of people saved from a flu death pales next to the number dying from the new pandemic. It also presents questions that doctors around the globe will likely be wrestling with for years: If flu can be nearly wiped out this season, why not every season? Which steps help the most to stop the flu from spreading?

https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-has-nearly-wiped-out-the-fluhow-do-we-keep-it-from-coming-back-11611230410

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This portion of Chelmsford was renamed Low- ell after Francis Cabot Lowell (1775–1817), an American businessman who improved American spinning and weaving machines and founded the first mill in America where raw cotton was processed and converted into cloth in the same building. Lowell, Massachusetts, is significant to the history of American industrialization because the town was entirely based around mill life. The mills employed primarily female workers, who lived in local boarding houses, shopped at company stores, and engaged in company-approved leisure-time activities, making Lowell the first company town.
...
By 1836, Lowell was the home to over 17,000 people, most of whom were female mill workers. Work began at 5:00 a.m. and ended at 7:00 p.m., with two breaks lasting a half hour each. In 1834, the company announced it would cut wages. Women workers took to the streets in protest. Though the strike did not raise wages, it did provide female workers with strike experience. In 1836, owners once again announced that wages would be cut. Also, workers would pay housing and meals, which had previously been par- tially paid for by the factory, in full.


--- Welch R & Lamphier P.A., Technical Innovation in America. 2019.
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And seeking to prejudice his son against Greek culture, he indulges in an utterance all too rash for his years, declaring, in the tone of a prophet or a seer, that Rome would lose her empire when she had become infected with Greek letters. But time has certainly shown the emptiness of this ill-boding speech of his, for while the city was at the zenith of its empire, she made every form of Greek learning and culture her own.

It was not only Greek philosophers that he hated, but he was also suspicious of Greeks who practised medicine at Rome. He had heard, it would seem, of Hippocrates' reply when the Great King of Persia consulted him, with the promise of a fee of many talents, namely, that he would never put his skill at the service of Barbarians who were enemies of Greece. He said all Greek physicians had taken a similar oath, and urged his son to beware of them all.


--- Plutarch, the Lives, Cato the Elder: 23.

https://penelope.uchicago.edu/Thayer/E/Roman/Texts/Plutarch/Lives/Cato_Major*.html
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I'd never thought that I'd see conversations between bewildered fanatics in the US this close. Throughout Trump presidency I felt that calling these people трамповатa was a bit rude; that they were just confused, mostly harmless middle-aged men who happen to be mentally stuck in the Soviet/anti-soviet dichotomy of their youth. Maybe it made them feel younger and more at home with their life skills. But guess what? They are true трамповата. They live in the US, but mentally they are working remotely from the USSR, a country and society that exist only in their memories. Bergson was right. Wow.

https://stas.dreamwidth.org/1283813.html
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--- Peter Turchin, Historical Dynamics, 2019. p 44.

This could be key to understanding the density divide.

TIL

Nov. 9th, 2020 12:03 pm
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“IN OCTOBER 2019, just a few months before the novel coronavirus swept the world, Johns Hopkins University released its first Global Heath Security Index, a comprehensive analysis of countries that were best prepared to handle an epidemic or pandemic. The United States ranked first overall, and first in four of the six categories—prevention, early detection and reporting, sufficient and robust health system, and compliance with international norms”

--- Zakaria, Fareed. “Ten Lessons for a Post-Pandemic World.” 2020.


Unfortunately, this cannot be fixed by money.
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The Dakotas, no Sweden, are conducting the great natural experiment in COVID:



“Those who don’t want to wear a mask shouldn’t be shamed into wearing one,” wrote South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem, a Republican, in an opinion piece published in the Rapid City Journal last week. Hospital visits and caring for symptomatic people are times when masks are appropriate, she wrote.

Maggie Seidel, a senior adviser to Ms. Noem, said in an interview that the governor has no opinion on whether people should wear masks while in close proximity to others in public locations.
...

South Dakota’s positivity rate, as reported by Johns Hopkins University, is 46%. That is roughly double the 20% and 24% rate that Texas and Arizona, respectively, saw over the summer, prompting their Republican governors to close businesses such as bars while Texas also began requiring masks. It is on par with the positivity rate New York recorded in April, when testing was much more limited.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-is-worse-in-the-dakotas-now-than-it-was-in-the-springs-hot-spots-11604136600


The herd is being infected with the virus. The experiment will show whether they will get the immunity part too.
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https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/115/19/e4330.full.pdf

Read more... )
The 2016 election was a result of anxiety about dominant groups’ future status rather than a result of being overlooked in the past. In many ways, a sense of group threat is a much tougher opponent than an economic downturn, because it is a psychological mindset rather than an actual event or misfortune. Given current demographic trends within the United States, minority influence will only increase with time, thus heightening this source of perceived status threat. Although whites will likely still be the best-educated and most well-off racial group, by 2040, they are unlikely to dominate in numbers. Likewise, despite US status as an extremely wealthy country relative to those countries perceived to threaten it economically, many Americans find that small comfort.
...
Negative attitudes toward racial and ethnic diversity are also correlated with low levels of education. In this election, education represented group status threat rather than being left behind economically. Those who felt that the hierarchy was being upended—with whites discriminated against more than blacks, Christians discriminated against more than Muslims, and men discriminated against more than women—were most likely to support Trump.

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