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I've started reading a 2014 novel about spy games between CIA and FSB. Here's what some clearsighted people saw in Russia back then:
“...your Russki is insecure, wants to be respected, to be feared like the old Soviet Union. They need recognition, and they hate their second-tier status in the superpower stakes. That’s why Putin’s putting together USSR 2.0, and no one is going to stand in his way.

...as the chain-wrapped corpse of the Soviet was exhumed, hauled dripping out of the swamp, and its heart was started again, and the old prisons were filled anew..."

Red Sparrow, by Jason Matthews.

upd. It sounds even better in French:

…tandis que le corps enchaîné du Soviétique était exhumé, tiré du marais encore ruisselant, que son cœur reprenait vie et que les vieilles prisons se remplissaient à nouveau…
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“When he was finally assassinated in 96 CE, the Roman aristocracy exhaled in relief. Many among them, foremost the courageous, had fallen victim to “that most savage beast,” as a contemporaneous writer described him. Especially during the last years of his regime, he had stifled life in the capital of the far-flung Roman Empire. Survival was bought with submissiveness and silence, enforced by informers who abolished any free exchange of thought and speech. After fifteen years of fear—a time span during which “young men had reached old age, old men almost the end of their days”—even survivors were mere shadows of their former selves, as if “they had survived themselves.”

--- Christopher B. Krebs. “A Most Dangerous Book.”
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At this point, the fleet blocking Iranian commerce involves about 22 ships, which stop and redirect any Iranian-linked vessel trying to pass through the Strait. Along with a price tag of roughly $32.5 million a day, the blockade represents more than 30% of the US Navy’s warships.
...
Since the naval buildup began in January, those costs have topped $7.1 billion, according to a Bloomberg Economics analysis of the blockade’s naval operations. That price tag does not include all the US assets being used to escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz.


https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2026-us-iran-war-blockade/


Houthis' blockade of Saudi Arabia is a lot cheaper and more effective. Trump's Iranian _excursion gets more stupid and expensive every day.
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Update: yield is now 4.961%. It's now officially higher than the highest yield during the pandemic.

https://www.google.com/search?q=did+trump+promise+to+bring+down+interest+rates%3F

The bond market believes neither Trump nor Bessent.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent promised to go big to bring down bond yields. So far, his efforts still aren’t big enough.

https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/bessents-latest-buyback-move-leaves-investors-wanting-more-82d0268b


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Philosopher Alenka Zupančič makes a distinction b/w the two D's:
Disavowal vs. Denial
    • Denialism: Refusing to accept that a problem or fact exists.
    • Disavowal: Fully admitting the fact exists, but treating it as though it has no real consequences or call to action. [1, 2]
How Disavowal Works Today
    • Climate Change: People acknowledge environmental collapse and scientific data completely, yet maintain habits and economic structures that drive the catastrophe. [1, 2]
    • Performative Knowledge: Simply declaring "I know the truth" or posting outrage on social media acts as a substitute for actual change. The proclamation itself becomes a fetish that blocks real responsibility. [1, 2, 3]
    • Capitalism: The economic system relies on people knowing its flaws and inequalities, yet functioning as if there is no alternative. [1, 2]


Surprisingly, the difference can be exemplified rather succinctly by the two public stances _хуйло_ assumes after being caught red-handed following each of his crimes:

Denial — Ихтамнет
Disavowal — Ачтотакова
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Math can be difficult, and for those with high levels of mathematics-anxiety (HMAs), math is associated with tension, apprehension, and fear.

...when anticipating an upcoming math-task, the higher one’s math anxiety, the more one increases activity in regions associated with visceral threat detection, and often the experience of pain itself (bilateral dorso-posterior insula). Interestingly, this relation was not seen during math performance, suggesting that it is not that math itself hurts; rather, the anticipation of math is painful. Our data suggest that pain network activation underlies the intuition that simply anticipating a dreaded event can feel painful. These results may also provide a potential neural mechanism to explain why HMAs tend to avoid math and math-related situations, which in turn can bias HMAs away from taking math classes or even entire math-related career paths.

https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC3485285/
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/09/universities-prohibiting-ai-classroom/688509/

Procrastination might have the same mechanism.

Also, the article in the Atlantic (written by the president of Dartmouth) argues that prohibiting AI use in the classroom would be detrimental to students' future professional careers. Moreover, universities can help students master AI skills in a kind learning environment, which novices can't find elsewhere.

Personally, I encourage my students to use as much AI as they can. Consistent and purposeful AI interactions strengthens their habit of self-directed study. In the future, most professional and entrepreneurial work will be of the human-in-the-loop kind. Time to learn.
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Our whole society needs to rethink how much we depend on jobs. AI will generate a lot of wealth, and I think we can find ways of redistribution so people can work fewer hours and be paid for activities that were not economically important. But I think this is very hard to communicate to someone who couldn’t find a job, or lost [their] job.

https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2026-kai-fu-lee-weekend-interview/

Currently, the wealth is set to flow to the top. It's unlikely that people there will start redistributing their wealth toward the middle and the bottom until they are forced to do so. Of course, "we can find ways of redistribution", but who's doing it now? Nobody. Nobody is volunteering to pay more taxes on capital gains. Saying that "this is very hard to communicate to someone who lost their job" is preposterous because there's nothing to communicate. The gap between the positive and the normative can't be closed by wishful thinking.
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The dichotomy that separates humans into motivational and cognitive goes back thousands of years, at least to Aristotle’s distinction between the rational soul – residing in the head (and responsible for cognition), and the appetitive soul – residing in the chest (pertaining to motivation).

... instead of separating cognition and motivation into two separate systems, we propose that any epistemic activity is thoroughly suffused by motivation.

... we first characterize the process of inference, the quintessential mechanism of knowledge construction. Next, we describe the role of motivation in this process. We then identify the parallels between active inference and epistemic motivation and explore their complementarities. Finally, we identify possible applications of their joint epistemic perspective.



All Thinking is ‘Wishful’ Thinking
11 Apr 2020 Trends in Cognitive Sciences
Co-authors:Kruglanski AW, Jasko K, Friston K

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tics.2020.03.004
https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10115009/3/Friston_All%20Thinking%20is%20%27Wishful%27%20Thinking_AAM.pdf
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В твиттере дали ссылку на видео, где путин с самодовольным видом несет ахинею про былых медведей и касаток.

https://x.com/yarotrof/status/2093699411217936515

Его собеседники слушают эту херню и улыбаются, как будто он говорит, что-то остроумное. Как так получается? Такое впечатление, что у них мозги отключили на время разговора. Или на все время правления.

И еще, вчера мне попались на глаза старые записи о детстве в Л-де. Если задуматься, путиноиды украли у меня город и все связанное с ним. Ведь реально, из США я могу поехать туристом в любую нормальную страну, не опасаясь ареста; в любую, кроме России (и Северной Кореи). Вот французы, немцы, китайцы, филипинцы могут съездить посмотреть на свое прошлое, а мы - нет. Еще двадцать лет назад казалось, что вся эта совковая черезжоповость ушла навсегда. Но, нет. Пока путин не сдохнет, ничего не изменится. В принципе, в российском менталитете должна быть очень сильна "ошибка выжившего". Те, кто остались, воспринимают происходящую в стране черезжоповость как что-то нормальное или даже неизбежное. Сидят вокруг несущего ахинею вождя и улыбаются. А он продолжает убивать.

upd:
Mr Putin may express his aims using the language of geopolitics, but in fact he is guided by the criminal logic of his regime: never show weakness. Russia’s system has a high tolerance for violence, but is unforgiving of failure. He probably believes that ending the war without achieving even his minimum goal, taking all of Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region, would put him physically at risk. (“They will hang me,” he told some of his cronies at one point during the war, according to an insider.)

https://www.economist.com/europe/2026/08/30/cornered-vladimir-putin-plans-to-escalate-his-war
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President Trump’s demeanor, name calling, absurd and reckless rhetoric is unbecoming of the office of the president, is a bad example of leadership, and is hurting America’s reputation and place in the world. At this point, he’s no different than an internet troll or one of the many millions of bots that say awful horrible things.

In the past, I supported him because of the policies he professed to support and passionately campaigned on, but now as president he’s been revealed to be the Trojan horse who enforces many of the policies he claimed to be against.

I’m sorry I didn’t see it earlier and wish I had never supported him.

My biggest concern remains that as Donald Trump loses power and influence he will turn more and more towards war and take actions to make himself feel more powerful and in control, as he grasp and clings to the Oval Office.

https://x.com/FmrRepMTG/status/2091149612472062328

Too little, too late.
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"бандитский капитализм" is an instance of Hannah Arendt's concept of mob rule in a totalitarian regime. e.g. the alliance between capital and mob, crystallized in the movements from which those [totalitarian] regimes arose.
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Путинизм – это высшая и заключительная стадия бандитского капитализма в России. Та стадия, на которой, как говаривал один полузабытый классик, буржуазия выбрасывает за борт знамя демократических свобод и прав человека.

Путинизм – это война, это «консолидация» нации на почве ненависти к какой-то этнической группе, это – наступление на свободу слова и информационное зомбирование, это изоляция от внешнего мира и дальнейшая экономическая деградация.

–– Андрей Пионтковский, 11 января 2000 года.

https://web.archive.org/web/20210515224000/https://www.yabloko.ru/Publ/Book/Fire/fire_002.html
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Слова, употребляясь нашим мышлением вместо общих понятий, когда они служат, так сказать, алгебраическими знаками и должны быть безобразными, употребляясь в обыденной речи, когда они не договариваются и не дослушиваются, — стали привычными, и их внутренняя (образная) и внешняя (звуковая) формы перестали переживаться. Мы не переживаем привычное, не видим его, а узнаем. Мы не видим стен наших комнат, нам так трудно увидать опечатку в корректуре, особенно если она написана на хорошо знакомом языке, потому что мы не можем заставить себя увидать, прочесть, а не «узнать» привычное слово.

-- Виктор Шкловский, Воскрешение Слова, 1914.

quoted from: https://openu.kz/storage/lessons/1332/teoriya-literatury-prakticheskoe-vvedenie_5_lecture.pdf

Вот и русский язык для чего-то пригодился.
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The original saying is from Stanislaw Lec:

Kiedy znalazłem się na dnie, usłyszałem pukanie od spodu.

S. Lec, "Myśli nieuczesane", 1957.
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Like Enlightenment reason more generally, liberalism has often proven emotionally unfulfilling and inept at cultivating solidarity. It has failed to grasp the power of the instinctual realm, and has ignored a darker, more anguished side of human nature in favor of a stubborn insistence on rationality. Long after his youthful succumbing to fascism and later abandonment of Romania for Paris, the twentieth century Romanian philosopher E. M. Cioran asked, “And what, basically, is the West, what is the great French civilization, the idea of courtesy, other than a boundary that one accepts on account of reason?”

https://dokumen.pub/one-hundred-years-of-communist-experiments-9789633864067.html

Young Romanian fascist Cioran eventually escaped from fascist Romania to Paris and later became an aging French nihilist.

Like Romania, Russia also didn't have Enlightenment and to this day Russians instinctively resist "a boundary that one accepts on account of reason." They prefer воля, a special kind of _freedom from_, as opposed to _freedom for_.

Recently, I bumped into an LJ post by a young Russian woman who spent some time in Western Europe. Here's what she wrote about her inner experience:
Мне было весьма комфортно (в т.ч. в психологическом плане) жить заграницей, в западной Европе (благо скайп и интеренет давал достаточно русского языка). Хочу объяснить этот эффект в сказочном стиле-). Когда начинаешь жить там, то через некоторое время обустройства и акклиматизации, замечаешь, что вокруг тебя овцы. Натурально, утром идёшь на работу и чувствуешь, что окружающие овечки. У меня как-то с недосыпу даже некоторый оптический обман зрения был... Там я впервые остро ощутила себя волком. Возможно, еще волчонком, но всё равно. Ну да, наденешь овечью шкурку и ходишь, серый нос наружу торчит и ушки треугольные. То есть, действительно, люди вокруг стадные, воспитанно благостные, они привыкли к детально расписанным правилам, всё хорошо пока им следуешь, а если чуть нет, то таблетка. И тут я такая - всегда настороже, с "культура есть ширма", с подсознательным пониманием "всё может разрушиться сразу и совсем, но это нифига не повод", с "делай, что должен" и с "жизнь-борьба", в конце концов, со вшитой памятью о войне.
https://roni-14.livejournal.com/488101.html

As a pre- or non-Enlightenment society, Russia lives in a Hobbesian nature, where life, both for a man and a wolf, is _Nasty, Brutish and Short_. One must be _всегда настороже, с "культура есть ширма"_ stance toward the _sheep_. Arguably it's life prior to the nature-to-culture transition proclaimed by the Enlightenment. That is, many Russians treat their Leviathan government as an element of nature one has to accept like rain or blizzard, rather than trying to change it as a voting citizen. It's a pre-Locke society where natural rights have not been invented yet. If there's no rights, there's literally no reason to have boundaries.
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Есть популярное наблюдение о русских технологиях: "что бы русские ни собирали, получается автомат Калашникова". В паре с ней должно идти наблюдение о русских информационных технологиях: "что бы русские ни слушали, получается тотальная прослушка."

Философ Александр Дугин:
Вопрос уже давно не стоит: нужна тотальная слежка или не нужна. Вопрос стоит только так: кто за нами тотально следит — свои или враги? Современные технологии делают каждый наш шаг транспарентным. Может это и неплохо - будем меньше грешить. Но тогда пусть следят свои, наши. И не дают следить врагам.

https://t.me/Agdchan/26582
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“As an economist, Keynes always saw himself responding to the nineteenth-century tradition in economic reasoning. Alfred Marshall and the economists who followed J. S. Mill had assumed that the default condition of markets, and therefore of the capitalist economy at large, was stability. Thus instabilities—whether economic depression, or distorted markets, or government interference—were to be expected as part of the natural order of economic and political life; but they did not need to be theorized as part of the necessary nature of economic activity itself.

Over time he came to the position that the default condition of a capitalist economy could not be understood in the absence of instability and the inevitably accompanying inefficiencies. The classical economic assumption, that equilibrium and rational outcomes were the norm, instability and unpredictability the exception, were now reversed.

Moreover, in Keynes’s emerging theory, whatever it was that caused instability could not be addressed from within a theory which was unable to take that instability into account. The basic innovation here is ... you cannot expect systems to resolve themselves without intervention. Thus, not only do markets not self-regulate according to a hypothetically invisible hand, they actually accumulate self-destructive distortions over time.

Keynes’s point is an elegantly symmetrical bookend to Adam Smith’s claim in The Theory of Moral Sentiments. Smith argued that capitalism does not in itself generate the values that make its success possible; it inherits them from the pre-capitalist or non-capitalist world, “or else borrows them (so to speak) from the language of religion or ethics. Values such as trust, faith, belief in the reliability of contracts, assumptions that the future will keep faith with past commitments and so on have nothing to do with the logic of markets per se, but they are necessary for their functioning. To this Keynes added the argument that capitalism does not generate the social conditions necessary for its own sustenance."

--- Tony Judt. “Thinking the Twentieth Century.”
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...President Trump truly deserves the Nobel Peace Prize because he has already ended the Iran war eight times.

https://www.wsj.com/opinion/trumps-latest-iran-deal-7c90e6cc

If bullshit was oil, our strategic reserves would never run out during Trump presidency. Unfortunately for the environment, even MAGA cars don't run on bullshit.

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