timelets

"We are prone to think that we have here are degrees of certainty, with 2+2=4 enjoying the highest certainty. We don't realize that what we have here are not degrees of certainty, but kinds of certainty. And the kinds of certainty are as various as the kinds of proposition in question. *"

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This crucial point is often lost in probability calculations. Nassim Taleb gets it though.

* “Different kinds of certainty have different kinds of grounds. And what it is that is certain is, in each such case, a categorially different kind of proposition. The grounds for mathematical certainty are deductive proofs, and mathematical propositions are rules, not descriptions. The certainty of a perceptual statement such as ‘The curtains are red’ lies in its being evident to the senses – look and see! The certainty of an empirical prediction is determined by its conclusive empirical evidence. And the certainty of a highly theoretical proposition of science, such as e = mc2, is determined by the holistic confirmation of the theory of which it is a part.
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What applies to certainty applies also to truth.
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Empirical propositions, mathematical propositions, logical propositions and ethical propositions are categorially different. And that’s why what it is for propositions of categorially different kinds to be true is also so different, even though the term ‘true’ is unequivocal.”

Peter Hacker;. “A Beginner's Guide to the Later Philosophy of Wittgenstein.”

Хамейни мертв, а мы еще нет!

Jamie Dimond of JPM about AI in his business and beyond

Remarkable, how hard Trump is trying to turn the US into a banana republic.

The Fed received grand jury subpoenas from the Justice Department on Friday that threaten a criminal indictment relating to Powell’s testimony, the Fed chair said in a video statement on Sunday night.

“This is about whether the Fed will be able to continue to set interest rates based on evidence and economic conditions—or whether instead monetary policy will be directed by political pressure or intimidation,” Powell said in the statement.

The investigation, which is being run out of the office of Washington’s U.S. attorney Jeanine Pirro, a close Trump ally, began in November and is examining Powell’s congressional testimony and the Fed’s spending records, people familiar with it said.

https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/federal-reserve-received-justice-department-subpoena-threatening-criminal-indictment-e9e3f84d

Predictions for AI trends in 2026 by the IBM Tech channel

https://youtu.be/zt0JA5rxdfM?si=y1J28AmKk_WAFk75

We'll have to come back to it in 10-11 months.