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People in the persuasion business know very well that the best way to get someone to pull your chestnuts out of the fire would be to convince them that doing so was their own idea in the first place. That is, if you care about the outcome it doesn't matter to you who gets the attribution for the original idea and its execution. Moreover, а vain person is an easy target for such _inception_ manipulation because they crave flattery.

When a couple of days ago both Rubio and Johnson stated publicly that Netanyahu forced Trump's hand in starting the Iran war and the next day Trump said NO-NO-NO it was _my_ idea in the first place, it became obvious to knowledgeable people that Trump's _denial_ was actually a confirmation of the Rubio/Johnson story. Exploiting Trump's vanity is a big business now — from presidential pardons, to tariff exemptions, to foreign wars; those with access to the president send and receive strong signals about how to get things done.

upd: once, a successful litigator explained to me the difference between an ok lawyer and a good one. An ok lawyer, while presenting evidence, tells the jury what conclusion they should make. A good lawyer doesn’t tell the jury what they should conclude until they have already come to that conclusion on their own.
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За просчеты нашего хуйла будет расплачиваться Украина.
The US has cleared the way for India to temporarily increase its purchases of Russian oil, reversing months of pressure on the world’s third-largest crude importer as an escalating conflict in the Persian Gulf upends energy flows.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-06/us-issues-license-to-allow-some-russian-oil-sales-to-india-mme5qix4
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The future is here. The government now bars private businesses from using [one of] the best available AI system (Antrhopic) because it doesn't comply with the government's ideological requirements. Here, blind loyalty is put above competence explicitly and the principle reaches into everything that the government touches way down in the private sector.
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In court on Wednesday, a Justice Department lawyer asked for Eaton to pause his order while the government appeals, but the judge denied that request.

The judge said the repayment process should be straightforward and grew impatient when a Justice Department lawyer said the government hadn’t yet formalized its position on refunding the tariffs, which President Trump imposed by citing a decades-old law. “Your position is clear,” the judge said. “The Supreme Court told you what your position is.”

The Justice Department lawyer, Claudia Burke, said that any refund process would be time-consuming for the tariff collector, CBP. The government agency would have to manually go through millions of import entries, she added.

“We live in the age of computers,” Eaton said. “It must be possible for Customs Service to program its computers so it doesn’t need a manual review."

https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/judge-orders-government-to-begin-refunding-more-than-130-billion-in-tariffs-fdc1e62c.

Actually, we live in the age of AI and it should be even easier to calculate and issue refunds. In any case, the US is likely to see an increase in budget deficit this year because of the refunds, war expenses, and tax cuts. The increase will run the next year too because Trump will not dare to propose spending cuts in an election year.
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President Trump said in the Oval Office that he believed Iran was “going to attack first,” as he discussed his reason for striking Iran.

That perspective developed during negotiations with Tehran, he said.

“We were having negotiations with these lunatics,” he said, referring to Iran. “It was my opinion that they were going to attack first.”

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/iran-israel-us-strikes-2026/card/trump-says-he-thought-iran-was-going-to-attack-first--4ELJsHHebf6NV5Je3uF2

Our stable genius believed that when faced with a historic American and Israeli military buildup in the region and after its air defenses were pummeled in the last year's confrontation Iran would attack first. I hope he's lying as usual. The alternative would be he's dumb as a rock.
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First lady Melania Trump expressed condolences to families who have lost loved ones to death and injury during an address to the United Nations on Monday that described “these challenging times.”

In an unprecedented role for a first lady, she opened a meeting of the U.N. Security Council on behalf of the U.S. as the country assumed the rotating presidency of the council. “I extend my earnest wishes for a swift and smooth recovery to all those who have been injured. You are in my thoughts and prayers during these challenging times,” Trump said, without mentioning any particular conflict.

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/iran-israel-us-strikes-2026/card/speaking-at-un-melania-trump-expresses-condolences-for-the-dead-4oUsYCq5A2LzcAeEHn9Z


It's like watching a really bad movie about geopolitics.
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This time around, the US didn't even try to present any proofs of Iran's nuclear misdeeds. Maybe because nobody would believe Trump anyway.





https://www.reuters.com/world/us/just-one-four-americans-support-us-strikes-iran-reutersipsos-poll-finds-2026-03-01/

As before, Republicans are opposite of Independents, not Democrats.
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Israeli and U.S. military intelligence had long watched and waited for a rare opportunity: senior political and military leaders in Iran holding a meeting—where they could all be killed at once.

The day finally came Saturday.

Intelligence officers had identified not just one meeting but three, Israeli officials said. And they had a fix on Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s top decision maker and spiritual leader.

The moment was so unique that U.S. and Israeli warplanes struck in full daylight. Israeli jets dropped 30 bombs on Khamenei’s compound leaving it scorched and shattered.

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/why-the-u-s-and-israel-struck-iran-when-they-did-a-chance-to-kill-its-leaders-b0dbbc88

Trump started the war because he had an opportunity to kill Khamenei. That's all.
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The real alignment problem:

The federal government will stop working with Anthropic and designate the artificial intelligence company a supply-chain risk, a dramatic escalation of the government’s clash with the company over how its technology can be used by the Pentagon.

The company’s red lines had been domestic mass surveillance and autonomous weapons, areas the Pentagon said Anthropic didn’t need to worry about because the military would never break the law with AI. Defense Department officials said Anthropic needed to fully trust the Pentagon to use the technology responsibly and relinquish control.

“We cannot in good conscience accede to their request,” Anthropic Chief Executive Dario Amodei said on Thursday.

https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/trump-will-end-government-use-of-anthropics-ai-models-ff3550d9

Trump and his administration are threatening to either kill or confiscate the best US AI model because Amodei adheres to some basic human norms.



Compared to that the war with Iran is small potatoes.
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Новые документальные свидетельства о систематических преступлениях российских военных против граждан Украины:
Российский военачальник Роман Демурчиев хвастался родным и сослуживцам пытками, казнями и надругательствами над телами украинских военных. Это следует из архива его переписки за 2022-2024 годы, который изучили "Схемы" и "Система". Мы подтвердили подлинность переписки и восстановили контекст упомянутых в ней событий. Многочисленные описания, фото и видео зверств доказывают: российское командование не просто знает о подобных практиках на фронте, но и поощряет их.

https://www.currenttime.tv/a/systema-schemy-demurchiev/33682482.html

Стирание памяти о систематических преступлениях государства против своих граждан:
Москва. 20 февраля. INTERFAX.RU - Первый национальный Музей памяти, посвященный жертвам геноцида советского народа, появится на месте Музея истории ГУЛАГа*.

"В Москве откроется Музей Памяти. Он будет посвящен памяти жертв геноцида советского народа. Экспозиция охватит все этапы военных преступлений нацистов в годы Великой Отечественной войны", - говорится в сообщении на сайте.

Согласно сообщению на сайте мэра и правительства Москвы, открытие музея состоится в 2026 году.

"В его основу лягут архивные материалы проекта "Без срока давности", инициированного Поисковым движением России", - сообщается на сайте.

Новым директором музея стала Наталья Калашникова, которая, как уточняется на сайте, с апреля 2025 года возглавляет музей "Смоленская крепость", имеет опыт работы по сохранению памяти жертв геноцида советских граждан в рамках организации тематических выставок и издания исторических книг.

* В ноябре 2024 года стало известно о том, что Музей истории ГУЛАГа в Москве с 14 ноября временно прекратил работу из-за нарушений пожарной безопасности. Как уточнили в департаменте культуры столицы, решение о приостановке деятельности музея принято для безопасности посетителей.

https://www.interfax.ru/russia/1073861

Больше о современной России думать не имеет смысла. В течение ближайших трех поколений страна будет во власти военных преступников и их наследников. В лучшем случае, лет через 15-20 начнется переход от тоталитаризма обратно к авторитаризму, но, как показывает опыт Ирана, вероятность этого достаточна мала, чтобы следить за развитием событий из соображений прагматики.
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I tried to listen to Trump's press conference about the SCOTUS tariff decision but gave up after few minutes because his answers were a stream of BS claims completely untethered from reality. Only the most stupid members of his political base could take it seriously, with all the grievances of a delusional old man railing against the courts, other US presidents and countries that "disappointed" him. It's insane that we have this moron as the president.
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It's difficult to predict the future of AI, but one thing is guaranteed to happen: we'll have ethical conflicts related to the technology, alignment being probably the easiest one to see on the horizon. What gives me a pause is that people responsible for AI development those who are likely to have a strong influence on AI evolution placed their political bets on Trump, who is one of the least ethical persons in today's politics. Will those people make ethical choices when the future conflicts arise? I really doubt they'd do it, unless significant social pressure is applied to them.

p.s. by the end of Trump's term we'll hit a white collar job crisis and his administration will be flailing like his previous administration did when the pandemic hit.
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South Texas is a heightened example of what contractors are facing across the country in areas where U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement activity has intensified. Home builders in Minnesota relayed similar experiences of raids picking up whole work crews, even those with legal documentation, said Grace Keliher, executive vice president of the Builders Association of Minnesota. Nationally, a third of commercial contractors reported being affected by immigration-enforcement actions in the past six months, according to a January report by trade group Associated General Contractors of America.

Two guards at a nearby immigration detention center said they frequently see detainees come in still wearing dusty work clothes from construction jobsites. A significant portion of the men they now guard have valid work permits, they said, which they haven’t seen in previous administrations, but those detainees still wait weeks to see a judge before being released.

Because of that, people are afraid to work whether they have legal authorization or not, a reality that has hit the industry and broader regional economy hard. Paul Rodriguez, CEO of Valley Land Title, estimated that residential construction activity fell 30% in recent months in Hidalgo County.

https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/texas-immigration-raids-economy-87e23e2e

ICE/DHS agents have quotas for daily arrests and they are highly incentivized to fulfill the quotas. Moreover, arrests counted against the quotas are not revised down even if a person arrested during the raid is released later. Therefore, doing the right thing, i.e. arresting only illegals, puts an honest and conscientious agent at a disadvantage because a) he'd have to spend more time doing verification; b) his numbers would be lower than average because they would not include lawful immigrants. This is a clear case of government corruption, where doing the right thing is disincentivized.

Anyone running a business knows that incentives matter because wrong incentives lead to wrong outcomes. When people voted for Trump in 2024 they partially justified their choice by the fact that in their opinion he was a good (rich!) businessman. What we see now is that he is a good businessman when maximizing his own profits and/or advantages, not pursuing public good. Ultimately, private business and public governance are completely different domains of expertise. I only hope is that the clique of scoundrels (Trump, Witkoff, Lutnick) and morons (RFK jr) will not do too much damage to the country.

upd. One more thing: Trump keeps touting the growing value of people's assets in 401Ks due to the stock market rise. Of course, as a businessman he knows the difference between value of assets and cash flow/liquidity: he himself went bankrupt several times because he was "assert rich and cash poor". This divide — assets vs cash flow — comes loud and clear in surveys, both formal and informal. https://www.wsj.com/economy/consumers/americans-rate-trump-economy-21b85459
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Факты – упрямая вещь, и эти факты говорят нам о том, что при «слабом» Байдене Москва не могла и близко позволить себе того, что сходит ей с рук при «сильном» Трампе.

Без Трампа у Путина не было уверенности в том, что «энергоцид» Украины и массовый расстрел городов-миллионников баллистическими ракетами сойдет ему с рук. Теперь она есть. Всеми своими действиями, какими бы благими намерениями он ни руководствовался, Трамп последовательно поощрял Путина к террору. Он создавал у него уверенность в том, что «ответка» от Америки не прилетит.

https://t.me/v_pastukhov/1809

Эпизод с Гренландией открыл глаза европейским русским на Трампа.
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When it comes to honesty assessments of the Trump administration, Democrats are much closer to Independents than Republicans. Essentially, Republicans are opposite of Independents, not Democrats.

Democrats (93 - 2 percent) and independents (65 - 20 percent) think the Trump administration has not given an honest account of the incident, while Republicans (60 - 19 percent) think the Trump administration has given an honest account of the incident.

https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3947
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Miller was influential in Trump’s first term, but his power has expanded in the second one. He personally drafted or edited every executive order the president signed, and faced little opposition from administration officials to his work to reshape immigration policy.

His authority, officials said, derives from his ability to manage the president.

Early in Trump’s second term, Miller told federal agents in a meeting at the headquarters of Immigration and Customs Enforcement that the president was disappointed in their numbers. Miller urged the agents to “just go out there and arrest illegal aliens,” without bothering with targeted lists, according to people familiar with the meeting.

He demanded 3,000 arrests a day—a number deemed unrealistic by many federal agents—and came up with the idea of offering recruitment bonuses as high as $50,000 for thousands of new ICE agents.

Miller rarely leaves a written trail of his orders, using Signal, an encrypted voice and text-messaging app, to communicate.

Unlike most of his colleagues, Miller has Secret Service protection. He moved his family to a military base after protests outside his Arlington, Va., home.

https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/ice-stephen-miller-pretti-trump-2448e779

I wonder who is going to protect him after 2028.
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Two months after the March meeting, the administration committed to give the tiny Gulf monarchy access to around 500,000 of the most advanced AI chips a year—enough to build one of the world’s biggest AI data center clusters. The framework agreement called for roughly one-fifth of the chips to go to G42, The Wall Street Journal previously reported.

The agreement was widely viewed as a coup for the emirate’s ruling family, overcoming longstanding U.S. national security concerns and allowing the country to compete with the most powerful economies in the world at the cutting edge of AI advances. Proponents hailed the deal for unlocking a flood of investment into the U.S. and for helping entrench American technology as the global standard.

What wasn’t publicly known: Tahnoon’s emissaries had signed the deal to purchase 49% of World Liberty that January.

At the time of the investment, World Liberty had no products. It had raised $82 million by selling a token called WLFI. Aryam’s investment, though, didn’t give it the rights to future WLFI token sales, leaving the Tahnoon-backed entity out of what was then the company’s only source of revenue, the documents said.

https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/spy-sheikh-secret-stake-trump-crypto-tahnoon-ea4d97e8

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We don't need AI to see that ICE, when not parasitizing on the work of regular police, with probability 95% are not doing their job of capturing criminals Trump promised to deport during his election campaign.
Only 13% of those arrested at the beginning of 2025 didn’t have either a conviction or a pending charge.

Since October, 73% taken into ICE custody had no criminal conviction and only 5% had a violent criminal conviction, according to a Cato Institute review of ICE data.

Many of the criminal immigrants the Administration counts among those in detention are convicted criminals culled from prisons.

Syracuse professor Austin Kocher, who tracks official ICE data, finds that between Sept. 21, 2025, and Jan. 7, 2026, single-day ICE detentions increased 11,296. But only 902 of those were convicted criminals, 2,273 had pending criminal charges and 8,121 were other immigrant violators. ICE arrests have been trending upward since January 2025, but criminal arrests have plateaued.

White House aide Stephen Miller’s undisciplined mass deportation and zero-immigration policy is building distrust, and the White House pitch that public safety justifies its enforcement is losing credibility.

https://www.wsj.com/opinion/mass-deportation-trump-administration-ice-criminals-minnesota-tim-walz-kristi-noem-7f3bb88b

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