timelets

Факты – упрямая вещь, и эти факты говорят нам о том, что при «слабом» Байдене Москва не могла и близко позволить себе того, что сходит ей с рук при «сильном» Трампе.

Без Трампа у Путина не было уверенности в том, что «энергоцид» Украины и массовый расстрел городов-миллионников баллистическими ракетами сойдет ему с рук. Теперь она есть. Всеми своими действиями, какими бы благими намерениями он ни руководствовался, Трамп последовательно поощрял Путина к террору. Он создавал у него уверенность в том, что «ответка» от Америки не прилетит.

https://t.me/v_pastukhov/1809

Эпизод с Гренландией открыл глаза европейским русским на Трампа.

When it comes to honesty assessments of the Trump administration, Democrats are much closer to Independents than Republicans. Essentially, Republicans are opposite of Independents, not Democrats.

Democrats (93 - 2 percent) and independents (65 - 20 percent) think the Trump administration has not given an honest account of the incident, while Republicans (60 - 19 percent) think the Trump administration has given an honest account of the incident.

https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3947

Miller was influential in Trump’s first term, but his power has expanded in the second one. He personally drafted or edited every executive order the president signed, and faced little opposition from administration officials to his work to reshape immigration policy.

His authority, officials said, derives from his ability to manage the president.

Early in Trump’s second term, Miller told federal agents in a meeting at the headquarters of Immigration and Customs Enforcement that the president was disappointed in their numbers. Miller urged the agents to “just go out there and arrest illegal aliens,” without bothering with targeted lists, according to people familiar with the meeting.

He demanded 3,000 arrests a day—a number deemed unrealistic by many federal agents—and came up with the idea of offering recruitment bonuses as high as $50,000 for thousands of new ICE agents.

Miller rarely leaves a written trail of his orders, using Signal, an encrypted voice and text-messaging app, to communicate.

Unlike most of his colleagues, Miller has Secret Service protection. He moved his family to a military base after protests outside his Arlington, Va., home.

https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/ice-stephen-miller-pretti-trump-2448e779

I wonder who is going to protect him after 2028.

Two months after the March meeting, the administration committed to give the tiny Gulf monarchy access to around 500,000 of the most advanced AI chips a year—enough to build one of the world’s biggest AI data center clusters. The framework agreement called for roughly one-fifth of the chips to go to G42, The Wall Street Journal previously reported.

The agreement was widely viewed as a coup for the emirate’s ruling family, overcoming longstanding U.S. national security concerns and allowing the country to compete with the most powerful economies in the world at the cutting edge of AI advances. Proponents hailed the deal for unlocking a flood of investment into the U.S. and for helping entrench American technology as the global standard.

What wasn’t publicly known: Tahnoon’s emissaries had signed the deal to purchase 49% of World Liberty that January.

At the time of the investment, World Liberty had no products. It had raised $82 million by selling a token called WLFI. Aryam’s investment, though, didn’t give it the rights to future WLFI token sales, leaving the Tahnoon-backed entity out of what was then the company’s only source of revenue, the documents said.

https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/spy-sheikh-secret-stake-trump-crypto-tahnoon-ea4d97e8

Watch on YouTube

We don't need AI to see that ICE, when not parasitizing on the work of regular police, with probability 95% are not doing their job of capturing criminals Trump promised to deport during his election campaign.

Only 13% of those arrested at the beginning of 2025 didn’t have either a conviction or a pending charge.

Since October, 73% taken into ICE custody had no criminal conviction and only 5% had a violent criminal conviction, according to a Cato Institute review of ICE data.

Many of the criminal immigrants the Administration counts among those in detention are convicted criminals culled from prisons.

Syracuse professor Austin Kocher, who tracks official ICE data, finds that between Sept. 21, 2025, and Jan. 7, 2026, single-day ICE detentions increased 11,296. But only 902 of those were convicted criminals, 2,273 had pending criminal charges and 8,121 were other immigrant violators. ICE arrests have been trending upward since January 2025, but criminal arrests have plateaued.

White House aide Stephen Miller’s undisciplined mass deportation and zero-immigration policy is building distrust, and the White House pitch that public safety justifies its enforcement is losing credibility.

https://www.wsj.com/opinion/mass-deportation-trump-administration-ice-criminals-minnesota-tim-walz-kristi-noem-7f3bb88b

Under the headline Videos Contradict U.S. Account of Minneapolis Shooting by Federal Agents (See how immigration officers escalated a fatal confrontation Saturday) WSJ gives a detailed account of the shooting:

...
As Pretti and the two other civilians walk away, one of the agents follows them.

That agent then shoved someone who appeared to be with Pretti.

Pretti immediately puts himself between the fallen person and the officer, who appears to spray a nonlethal chemical agent on all three of them.

As a struggle ensues, agents pull Pretti from the others; at least five masked DHS agents surround him and force him to the ground.

Bystander footage shows one agent drawing his firearm and pointing it at Pretti.

Around the same time, a different video verified by the Journal shows Pretti pinned to the ground and agents appear to discover a firearm on him.

In a statement, DHS said, “The officers attempted to disarm the suspect but the armed suspect violently resisted.”

Less than a second later, one of the agents fires his weapon toward Pretti—the first of at least 10 shots within 5 seconds.

As shots are fired, bystander footage shows another officer raising his firearm.

A preliminary analysis of the video’s audio suggests a total of 10 shots were fired from a single semiautomatic firearm, according to Robert Maher, a forensic audio analyst at Montana State University.

About a minute after the shooting, bystander footage shows officers shouting, “Where is the gun?” as they attempt to apply first aid to Pretti.

https://www.wsj.com/us-news/videos-contradict-u-s-account-of-minneapolis-shooting-by-federal-agents-fbe1e488

Time to think beyond Trump, but to do that we need a key data point — the process, not the outcome, of the 2026 elections. If Trump manages to intimidate voters, politicians, business people and judges to subvert the elections, we are going to have a completely different country than the democracy we've had so far. The next 10 months are going to define the next 10+ years and beyond. So far, only the markets passed the stress test.

It’s hard to know what Mr. Trump might do next, which feeds public anxiety. But as his popularity ebbs, so does his political capital. His approval rating has sunk, his mass deportations are seen as excessive, tariffs are unpopular, and even GOP voters disliked his Greenland demands. Democrats took November’s races in Virginia and New Jersey in a rout. The GOP House majority is in peril, and the Senate is competitive. Mr. Trump’s attempts to gerrymander a safer House majority have backfired as Democrats have done the same.

The ultimate check on power is an election, and on that score Mr. Trump’s bull-dozing governance may be building the opposition that costs his party its majority in November.

https://www.wsj.com/opinion/donald-trump-greenland-congress-supreme-court-restraints-84dbc858

Introduced in 1949, the Fairness Doctrine required television and radio stations holding broadcast licenses to present "contrasting viewpoints" on controversial issues of public importance. “The repeal of the Fairness Doctrine did not directly enable Fox News through a change in law for cable. Instead, the 1987 repeal (and subsequent deregulation in the 1990s) encouraged a media environment where, for the first time, a channel explicitly targeting a conservative audience with a specific ideological viewpoint was commercially viable.“

Just to think of it: American stock market has a better appreciation of the importance of morality in international relationships than the president of the United States. Again, cold blooded stock traders get it and the supposed leader of the free world doesn't. The invisible hand of the market is more ethical, as objectively measured in billions of dollars, that the asshole tens of millions of Americans voted for in free elections. And those morons still support him. Fucking unbelievable.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell plans to attend Wednesday’s Supreme Court hearing over the attempted dismissal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook by President Donald Trump, according to a person familiar with the situation.

Fed watchers and legal analysts say the outcome of the case will have a profound impact on the president’s ability to fire Fed governors and, by extension, on the central bank’s ability to set interest rates free of political interference.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-19/fed-s-powell-plans-to-attend-cook-s-supreme-court-hearing

Powell wants to look the Supreme Court judges in the eyes and see if they have any courage left to practice law at all. Too bad tv cameras are not allowed during the hearings. It's going to be a moment reminiscent of the Godfather II Committee proceedings episode.

Watch on YouTube

Вот и Пастухов заметил (внезапно!), что Трамп и Путин - две стороны одногo хуйла.

К сожалению, мы достигли той черты, за которой не замечать существенного сходства политико-философских оснований идеологии MAGA и идеологии “Русского мира” более не представляется возможным. ... blah-blah-blah

https://t.me/v_pastukhov/1791

Опыт наблюдения за канадскими трампистами показывает, что, как правило, люди не меняют свое отношение к Трампу, пока события не коснутся их лично. Теперь в Европе симпатизанты Трампа начинают чувствовать*, что их мнение о Трампе расходится с реальностью. Израильтяне следующие.

* https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-18/uk-s-right-wing-parties-criticize-trump-greenland-tariff-threat
*https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-17/trump-s-greenland-play-is-a-step-too-far-for-europe-s-far-right

-- Leaders from the right of the UK’s political spectrum delivered their sharpest criticism yet of US President Donald Trump, after he threatened tariffs on European allies unless a deal is reached for the US to buy Greenland from the Kingdom of Denmark.

-- Alice Weidel, co-leader of the nationalist Alternative for Germany party — which German authorities classified as a far-right extremist movement and has developed close ties with the US administration — said Trump was acting no differently from Russia’s Vladimir Putin in breaching international law in Venezuela and threatening to do so in Greenland.

On Bloomberg Daren Acemoglu talks about our transition to an authoritarian kleptocracy.

Watch on YouTube

Trump moved money from the sale of Venezuela oil to Qatar, the country that bribed him with $400M airplane gift and does billions in crypto business with his sons.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-sending-funds-venezuela-oil-170450578.html

One needs to be an idiot to believe that Trump's run at Greenland is driven by national security, rather than the good old greed for their natural resources.

Here's a guide on how businesses (of course only those who have direct access to him) can buy influence with Trump. https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2026-ceo-playbook-trump-second-term

Corporate America is entering the second year of Donald Trump’s second term with a new, hard-won understanding: The president’s personal interventions can shape business as profoundly as any economic force.

5. Perhaps above all, the author of The Art of the Deal sees every interaction as a transaction. Urban, of BGR, cites a Beltway adage: “The first rule of horse trading is to have a horse.”

In Trump’s Washington, those transactions often hinge on what a company can offer—or surrender—to stay in the administration’s good graces.

This is textbook government corruption.

Under Trump, we are moving toward an authoritarian kleptocracy. The latest episode with Jerome Powell shows that money is the last resort against Trump's attacks. That is, the Fed Chairman doesn't appeal to the law because in an authoritarian state the law is on the side of the ruler. Rather, he appeals to the need for the Fed's independence and its importance for the markets.

It would be fun to make a cartoon sketch in the spirit of the Three Little Pigs. The first pig built its house out of norms and Trump easily blew it away. The second pig built its house out of law and Trump easily blew it away. The third pig built its house out of gold and so far we see how Trump is huffing and puffing, but can't make much damage to it, at least internally in the US.

Remarkable, how hard Trump is trying to turn the US into a banana republic.

The Fed received grand jury subpoenas from the Justice Department on Friday that threaten a criminal indictment relating to Powell’s testimony, the Fed chair said in a video statement on Sunday night.

“This is about whether the Fed will be able to continue to set interest rates based on evidence and economic conditions—or whether instead monetary policy will be directed by political pressure or intimidation,” Powell said in the statement.

The investigation, which is being run out of the office of Washington’s U.S. attorney Jeanine Pirro, a close Trump ally, began in November and is examining Powell’s congressional testimony and the Fed’s spending records, people familiar with it said.

https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/federal-reserve-received-justice-department-subpoena-threatening-criminal-indictment-e9e3f84d

Watch on YouTube

Медуза дает подробный анализ перспектив добычи нефти в Венесуэле. Оставлю здесь вывод, чтобы через год вернутъся:

Chevron снова начала работать в Венесуэле с конца 2022 года, и благодаря ее проектам добыча с тех пор действительно выросла, хотя и не особенно сильно. Более реалистичными выглядят расчеты, предполагающие ежегодный рост добычи на 200–250 тысяч баррелей в день в течение четырех-пяти лет при инвестициях от 10 миллиардов долларов в год.

Все это в основном касается традиционной нефти. Перспективы расширения добычи сверхтяжелой нефти при цене Brent 50–55 долларов за баррель совсем туманны. Для окупаемости таких проектов нужны цены на 20–30 долларов выше.
...
Возрождение нефтяной отрасли Венесуэлы не обещает мгновенных гигантских прибылей, а значит, американские нефтяные компании оказываются перед непростым выбором. У них и без Венесуэлы есть подготовленный конвейер проектов. Ресурсы — технические, человеческие, финансовые — расписаны на годы вперед.

Переключаться на Венесуэлу в такой ситуации означает отказываться от каких-то других вложений. Причем делать это придется в обстановке низких цен на нефть, когда у компаний снижен аппетит к риску и сильно желание блюсти финансовую дисциплину.

Also:

Mr. Trump seems to view the oil proceeds as a personal executive account, beyond the control of Congress’s purse-strings, to dole out as he sees fit.

It elides U.S. national security interests with Mr. Trump’s personal power, much like his gambit to let TikTok keep operating in the U.S. in violation of the law on the condition that the Treasury get a cut of its eventual sale to American investors. To the victor go the oil spoils won’t improve U.S. standing in the world, and it sends a bad message to the world’s rogues about the way to buy U.S. support.
...
U.S. companies are unlikely to invest in Venezuela until a political transition creates stability and respects property rights. Oil investment is measured in decades, not the next three years. Merely maintaining current output will require billions of dollars a year, and a hundred billion or more to return production to the levels of the early 2010s.

U.S. companies have other attractive opportunities that carry less political risk, such as offshore Guyana where ExxonMobil and Chevron are making big investments. Harold Hamm’s Continental Resources is expanding in Argentina’s Vaca Muerta shale formation. Don’t forget America’s own resources, including in the Gulf of Mexico and Alaska. Mr. Trump may be able to coerce Chevron to invest more in Venezuela, or dangle subsidies as he has suggested, but this is dubious industrial policy.
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/donald-trump-venezuela-oil-tankers-nicolas-maduro-67c4775c

WSJ review shows that ICE agents intentionally create situations that result in shooting of unarmed civilians in vehicles. They also violate rules of safe engagement taught to police officers.

The Journal identified 13 shootings involving ICE or CBP agents and civilian vehicles since July, using court records, news reports and gun-violence databases.

Footage verified by the Journal and a video shared on Friday by DHS show Ross moving in front of the vehicle while its engine was running, which former and current DHS agents say they are trained not to do.

The Minneapolis shooting shares characteristics with others the Journal reviewed: Agents box in a vehicle, try to remove an individual, block attempts to flee, then fire.

Footage from the shootings also shows officers approaching civilian vehicles with their engines still running—a situation police are trained to avoid. According to Kerlikowske, such training is designed to keep officers out of harm’s way.

Videos reviewed by the Journal show officers trying to open vehicle doors, reaching into vehicles and smashing windows, followed by drivers fleeing.

Police are trained to break a window only in specific circumstances, such as if the driver is armed or there is a medical emergency, said Alpert. In footage from the four cases closely reviewed by the Journal, none of the drivers had firearms, but DHS insists they were still dangerous.

Obstructing a moving vehicle
In at least three of the shootings, officers pursued a vehicle on foot. Footage also shows officers moving into the potential path of the vehicle or clinging on to it while it moved.

“It’s like policing 101. Don’t get in front of a car or in their potential pathway, especially if the engine is running,” said Jon Blum, a former North Carolina officer who now develops police training curricula.

Firing into a moving vehicle also creates its own danger, according to Alpert.

“If I shoot you, and I’m successful, now we’ve got an unguided missile,” said Alpert. “What if there are kids playing in the street?”

https://www.wsj.com/us-news/videos-show-how-ice-vehicle-stops-can-escalate-to-shootings-caf17601

The Heritage Foundation, once the leading think tank on the right, is falling apart because it embraced MAGA mentality. Real thinkers on the right are now saying it aloud that Trump's populism has nothing to do with true conservatism:

An existential identity crisis now grips the American right. A political movement once united by a commitment to limited government, moral order, and a robust defense of American ideals now appears fractured, its purpose clouded by populist grievances and ideological drift.

Since the turn of the century, a once-robust definition of conservatism has gradually devolved into "anything that's not 'woke.'"

A truly conservative movement must resist the allure of revanchist politics obsessively focused on destroying the edifices of the left. As Kirk so eloquently demonstrated, civilizations are not built on negation, but on affirmation. They thrive when they are anchored in a moral and spiritual order that shapes their laws, customs, and governance. The same principle holds true for political movements. To regain its footing, the conservative movement must return to this foundation, cultivating ordered souls capable of sustaining an ordered polity.

Ed Feulner is the founder of the Heritage Foundation.

https://www.nationalaffairs.com/publications/detail/rediscovering-order-age-populism

via https://www.wsj.com/opinion/ed-feulner-ed-meese-and-the-heritage-foundations-exodus-8ab6ae02

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Entries tagged with politics

Stating the obvious

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The Miller Administration

Blatant corruption

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TIL: The Repeal of the Fairness Doctrine (1987)

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Authoritarian kleptocracy

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