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OMFG, Trump can't deliver Donbas to the Russians as promised.
Another factor in Putin’s decision to fight on is that the Russian leader has lost faith in Donald Trump’s ability to pressure Kyiv into surrendering territory as part of a deal, according to one source close to Putin and another involved in backchannel talks.

“There was this widespread optimism in Moscow that Trump could deliver the Donbas after his election. It has largely evaporated,” one source in contact with Putin said.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2026/may/24/there-is-profound-disappointment-in-him-mood-in-russia-turns-against-putin

He can't deliver Iran to the Israelis either.
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Trump’s Deal With His Administration Also Ends His Tax Audits

WASHINGTON—President Trump’s extraordinary agreement with the federal government expanded Tuesday to end all pending tax audits of him and his businesses, according to a document posted by the Justice Department.

In the document, signed by Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche, the government said it would be “FOREVER BARRED and PRECLUDED” from pursuing certain claims against Trump, his businesses and family members. The agreement specifically blocks the government from taking any action regarding tax returns that already have been filed.

Tuesday’s addendum includes broad language in which the U.S. pledges to cease pursuing any matters that are or could be pending with the IRS and with other agencies or departments. The statement includes family members and “related or affiliated individuals,” although it doesn’t clearly define those terms.

“He gets the money to spread among his friends and allies and also gets immunity for any review or audit. These guys just have no limit to what they’ll try to get away with.”

https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/government-deal-with-trump-expands-to-end-tax-audits-aad8f2bc


Real banana republic stuff.
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For example:
The accounts purchased at least $1.75 million of Nvidia’s stock in the quarter, including $500,000 on Jan. 6. A week later, the administration cleared the way for Nvidia to send its H200 artificial-intelligence chips to China. Last week, Trump invited Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang to travel aboard Air Force One for the state visit to China.


Pure luck, I guess.
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Natalie Harp, Trump’s executive assistant, plays an integral role in Trump’s Truth Social activity. She brings the president stacks of printed-out draft social-media posts for his approval. The proposed posts often recycle content from other accounts that Harp or advisers think would appeal to Trump, according to people familiar with the matter.

Harp then logs onto the president’s account—at times outside of normal work hours—and posts batches of Trump-approved messages, the people said. Trump personally signs off on all of the content posted to his account. While Harp often posts content on Trump’s behalf, the president posts some messages himself, White House officials said.

https://www.wsj.com/politics/trump-truth-social-late-night-posts-167cb47a

A thirty-something lady is the most powerful media influencer in the world. And her job, funded by US taxpayers, is to flood the world with shitposts.
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The Fed lowered interest rates three times since August last year, for the total of 0.75%. Nevertheless, because of Trump's stupid war and his overall incompetence the 10Y rate is back up where it was back then. The markets don't believe that the moron can open the strait and now, in addition to TACO, traders have a new term for that — "NACHO", No Chance Hormuz Opens.

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Пару дней назад Яков сделал пост о том, как RFJ jr, один из трамповских жополизов (по совместительству наш министр здравоохранения), объясняет, что Трамп был по-своему прав, когда заявлял о снижении цены лекарств на 600%, если она, по его словам, падала с $600 до $100.
https://yakov-a-jerkov.dreamwidth.org/2386697.html

"Логика" объяснения в том, что снижение в 6 раз можно каким-то образом представить как снижение на 600%. Объяснение потребовалось потому, что на слушаниях в Конгрессе сенаторы публично высмеяли трамповские заявления о 600%, и RFK jr., как и положено лояльному жополизу, пришлось Трампа защищать.

Я прочитал пост Якова и удивился, потому что накануне, в день слушаний в Конгрессе, в твиттере была ссылка на оригинальное видео, где RFK jr защищал 600% Трампа, но там были другие числа. Тогда он говорил про снижение с $600 до $10 и тоже объяснял, что у Трампа своя логика. https://x.com/krassenstein/status/2046991286649884740

Вопрос в том, почему вдруг понадобились отдельное публичное выступление RFK jr, теперь уже в присутствии самого Трампа, но с новыми числами. Оба объяснения 600% абсурдны с точки зрения не только математики, но и Американского Свода Коммерческих Правил (The Uniform Commercial Code). Если бы компания рекламировала в интернете или газете снижение цены на товар на 600%, ей бы пришлось сделать соответствующую скидку по требованию покупателя, т.е. доплатить за покупку.

Тем не менее, в администрации Трампа посчитали необходимым публично защитить дурака-начальника с версией расчетов, которые бы выглядели более правдоподобно, чем в выступлении RFK jr. в Конгрессе. Они поменяли числа и организовали новое выступление для прессы, теперь уже в присутствии самого Трампа, чтобы RFK jr. унизился и вылизал боссу задницу у всех на виду еще раз. Интересно, сколько людей в правительстве, кроме самого Президента и министра здравоохранения, занимались всей этой херней. (Но даже для них изначальнoe $600 -> $10 выглядело еще более необъяснимо, чем $600 -> $100, поэтому пришлось менять одну липу на другую.)

В свое время, когда после перестройки были опубликованы материалы ЦК КПСС и КГБ, люди с удивлением обнаружили, какой херней занимались советские руководители на самом высшем уровне. Похоже, в трамповской администрации царит тот же маразм, что и в брежневской.
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Peggy Noonan:
They [two Trump's posts on Iran: 1. open the f-ing strait; 2. civilization will die tonight] constituted hitting a new bottom, a new and infernal, face-lit-by-flames bottom, in world communications. The posts weren’t showbiz, they were sinister. You destabilize the world when, as the American president, you say such things. You make all the babies in this delicately poised, always knock-down-able world less safe. You rob your own nation of a claim to moral seriousness in the military action in which it’s engaged: You are saying we’re not trying to protect life but plan to attack, and in the attacking kill noncombatants who are members of the targeted civilization. The moral high ground is relinquished. You lower the bar for all potential response. You encourage violent action by trumpeting your readiness for it.

It bolsters the position of your enemies—their animus is justified, their commitment deepened. It allows them to pretend they’re fighting for the continuation of their people and not only the continuation of their regime.

Donald Trump plays the part of the madman every day. His head fake would be sanity. If his advisers thought this was a good negotiating tactic—“Give ’em a little madman theory, Mr. President”—they really are hicks.

Mr. Trump’s trust in his gut seems to have grown overwhelming—not in his reasoning power, not his analysis of intelligence data, but gut.

A lot of gut instinct is pattern recognition—I’ve lived long, experienced much, and know how this movie ends. But that means gut is weighted toward past experience.

Sometimes gut is mere emotion dressed up as instinct. Sometimes it’s wishful thinking that feels like conviction. Sometimes it conveniently pre-empts hard reasoning.

You can trust your gut straight into catastrophe.

https://www.wsj.com/opinion/in-gut-we-trust-dde164b6

_Hick_ is the right term for describing Trump's supporters of the Art-of-the-deal flavor.
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What started as a tongue-in-cheek observation that “Trump always chickens out” has become a consistently profitable pattern. It works especially well when there’s a specific deadline like Tuesday night’s Strait of Hormuz ultimatum since there’s less danger of being right but getting the timing wrong.

Over the 300-plus trading sessions since Trump took the oath of office last year, nine of the S&P 500’s 10 biggest gains have had to do with relief over tariffs or Iran. Owning stocks on just those days would have earned an investor 52% on their money compared with 12% for buying and holding an index fund throughout. Wednesday’s cease-fire rally might crack the top six.

https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/iran-bounce-these-tacos-are-getting-stale-1f69dd3a


Also of interest:

A Trump insider opened a $51,000,000 oil short position — hours before Trump announced a ceasefire with Iran. This guy is now 16 for 16. $170 million in profit. A perfect streak.

"We placed the bet." "The ceasefire dropped." "We cashed out." Sixteen times in a row.
https://x.com/JamesTate121/status/2041908860576002256
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President Donald Trump said he was in “heated negotiations” involving the war with Iran after mediator Pakistan asked for a two-week extension of his Tuesday deadline for Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-07/us-strikes-kharg-island-as-trump-says-iran-could-die-tonight

Everyone, except MAGA idiots, knows that the heated negotiations are happening in his own head, as he's desperately trying to get out of this war. The markets are betting that he'll grab the lifeline thrown to him by Pakistan. What a moron.

50/50

Apr. 6th, 2026 07:41 pm
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Trump is considering whether to join Putin and Netanyahu in the race to become the next Nobel Peace Prize winner Hitler. The WSJ makes a halfhearted argument against it.
The U.S. has a strong interest in causing chaos for Iran’s military, and targeting can allow it to do so without bombing every power plant in the country.

https://www.wsj.com/opinion/iran-donald-trump-ultimatum-strait-of-hormuz-dan-caine-john-ratcliffe-4f9d3372

"Well, isn't that special."
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Ah, the good old days when generals were portrayed as crazy warmongers and the president with his staff were presented as intelligent and acting responsibly. Now, it's the other way around and sheer madness is called the art of the deal.
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In internal deliberations before the war’s launch, Hegseth had pointed to Iran's muted reaction to Trump’s past attacks as evidence that calibrated force could impose costs on Tehran without triggering a broader war. Hegseth “was caught off guard.

The Administration also appeared to be taken by surprise when Iran reached for a source of leverage: control over the Strait of Hormuz, which roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply passes through each day. In response to U.S. strikes, Tehran implemented a de facto blockade, declaring the channel effectively closed and restricting passage to non-hostile vessels. The resulting economic shock had domestic reverberations that went beyond the expectations of Trump’s inner circle.

https://time.com/article/2026/04/02/trump-iran-off-ramp/

Now, Hegseth is firing generals because they know he is the clueless amateur who got the country into a quagmire.
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Better late than never, I guess.

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I think these old farts will try to capture Iranian islands next weekend because "it's easy", just like the healthcare reform or tariffs.

Exhibit 1:

Trump said: “To be honest with you, my favourite thing is to take the oil in Iran but some stupid people back in the US say: ‘why are you doing that?’ But they’re stupid people.”

Asked about the state of Iranian defence on Kharg Island he said: “I don’t think they have any defence. We could take it very easily.”

https://www.ft.com/content/3bd9fb6c-2985-4d24-b86b-23b7884031f5?syn-25a6b1a6=1


Exhibit 2:
Retired Gen. Frank McKenzie, the former commander of U.S. Central Command (Centcom), said Sunday... some of those islands you could seize and hold.
“First of all, it would be profoundly humiliating for Iran and would give us great weight in negotiations. The second, the example of Kharg Island, which everyone talks about, if you seize Kharg Island, you really can shut down the Iranian oil economy completely. And the beauty of seizing it is, you’re not destroying it,” he said.

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/5806811-mckenzie-us-iran-raids/

As if drones don't exist yet. Humiliating my foot! What if Iran decides to destroy oil and desalination facilities in other Gulf countries in response? We just saw how Ukraine hit Russia's oil shipping infrastructure on the Baltic sea. We just saw how Iran destroyed multiple US planes on a military base in SA. The fucking moron seem to think every ground operation is a just another Venezuela excursion.
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Since last summer, the Fed lowered interest rates three times, for the total of 0.75%. Nevertheless, the risk premium didn't change much because the fucking moron keeps creating unnecessary risks and stimulates inflation.



upd 3/28/26: https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/battered-by-stock-losses-investors-find-little-relief-in-bonds-af3f8a14?mod

..falling bond prices have driven up the yield on the 10-year Treasury note by almost 0.5 percentage point, lifting borrowing costs throughout the economy. Rates on 30-year mortgages jumped to 6.38% last week, reversing a slide that had carried them to their lowest levels since 2022 and threatening the spring home-buying season.
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Two thirds of Americans don't buy into Trump's "imminent threat" narrative. 68% think that the administration has yet to explain clearly the goals of the war. 69% of Independents disapprove of the war. Ultimately, it's a Trump cult war.
MAGA remains behind Trump and the war. They have confidence in him, even when they think it might last a long time, and they overwhelmingly approve of how he's handling the situation.

Contextually, this pattern of support from MAGA is in keeping with what we've seen on other matters — across all subjects, including military ones — over the years.


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