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(no subject)
Apr. 10th, 2026 09:20 pmPeggy Noonan:
_Hick_ is the right term for describing Trump's supporters of the Art-of-the-deal flavor.
They [two Trump's posts on Iran: 1. open the f-ing strait; 2. civilization will die tonight] constituted hitting a new bottom, a new and infernal, face-lit-by-flames bottom, in world communications. The posts weren’t showbiz, they were sinister. You destabilize the world when, as the American president, you say such things. You make all the babies in this delicately poised, always knock-down-able world less safe. You rob your own nation of a claim to moral seriousness in the military action in which it’s engaged: You are saying we’re not trying to protect life but plan to attack, and in the attacking kill noncombatants who are members of the targeted civilization. The moral high ground is relinquished. You lower the bar for all potential response. You encourage violent action by trumpeting your readiness for it.
It bolsters the position of your enemies—their animus is justified, their commitment deepened. It allows them to pretend they’re fighting for the continuation of their people and not only the continuation of their regime.
Donald Trump plays the part of the madman every day. His head fake would be sanity. If his advisers thought this was a good negotiating tactic—“Give ’em a little madman theory, Mr. President”—they really are hicks.
Mr. Trump’s trust in his gut seems to have grown overwhelming—not in his reasoning power, not his analysis of intelligence data, but gut.
A lot of gut instinct is pattern recognition—I’ve lived long, experienced much, and know how this movie ends. But that means gut is weighted toward past experience.
Sometimes gut is mere emotion dressed up as instinct. Sometimes it’s wishful thinking that feels like conviction. Sometimes it conveniently pre-empts hard reasoning.
You can trust your gut straight into catastrophe.
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/in-gut-we-trust-dde164b6
_Hick_ is the right term for describing Trump's supporters of the Art-of-the-deal flavor.
And the winners are...
Apr. 8th, 2026 12:39 pmWhat started as a tongue-in-cheek observation that “Trump always chickens out” has become a consistently profitable pattern. It works especially well when there’s a specific deadline like Tuesday night’s Strait of Hormuz ultimatum since there’s less danger of being right but getting the timing wrong.
Over the 300-plus trading sessions since Trump took the oath of office last year, nine of the S&P 500’s 10 biggest gains have had to do with relief over tariffs or Iran. Owning stocks on just those days would have earned an investor 52% on their money compared with 12% for buying and holding an index fund throughout. Wednesday’s cease-fire rally might crack the top six.
https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/iran-bounce-these-tacos-are-getting-stale-1f69dd3a
Also of interest:
A Trump insider opened a $51,000,000 oil short position — hours before Trump announced a ceasefire with Iran. This guy is now 16 for 16. $170 million in profit. A perfect streak.
"We placed the bet." "The ceasefire dropped." "We cashed out." Sixteen times in a row.
https://x.com/JamesTate121/status/2041908860576002256
President Donald Trump said he was in “heated negotiations” involving the war with Iran after mediator Pakistan asked for a two-week extension of his Tuesday deadline for Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-07/us-strikes-kharg-island-as-trump-says-iran-could-die-tonight
Everyone, except MAGA idiots, knows that the heated negotiations are happening in his own head, as he's desperately trying to get out of this war. The markets are betting that he'll grab the lifeline thrown to him by Pakistan. What a moron.
Trump is considering whether to join Putin and Netanyahu in the race to become the next Nobel Peace Prize winner Hitler. The WSJ makes a halfhearted argument against it.
"Well, isn't that special."
The U.S. has a strong interest in causing chaos for Iran’s military, and targeting can allow it to do so without bombing every power plant in the country.
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/iran-donald-trump-ultimatum-strait-of-hormuz-dan-caine-john-ratcliffe-4f9d3372
"Well, isn't that special."
(no subject)
Apr. 5th, 2026 09:58 pmAh, the good old days when generals were portrayed as crazy warmongers and the president with his staff were presented as intelligent and acting responsibly. Now, it's the other way around and sheer madness is called the art of the deal.
(no subject)
Apr. 3rd, 2026 10:33 amIn internal deliberations before the war’s launch, Hegseth had pointed to Iran's muted reaction to Trump’s past attacks as evidence that calibrated force could impose costs on Tehran without triggering a broader war. Hegseth “was caught off guard.
The Administration also appeared to be taken by surprise when Iran reached for a source of leverage: control over the Strait of Hormuz, which roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply passes through each day. In response to U.S. strikes, Tehran implemented a de facto blockade, declaring the channel effectively closed and restricting passage to non-hostile vessels. The resulting economic shock had domestic reverberations that went beyond the expectations of Trump’s inner circle.
https://time.com/article/2026/04/02/trump-iran-off-ramp/
Now, Hegseth is firing generals because they know he is the clueless amateur who got the country into a quagmire.
(no subject)
Mar. 29th, 2026 09:08 pmI think these old farts will try to capture Iranian islands next weekend because "it's easy", just like the healthcare reform or tariffs.
Exhibit 1:
Exhibit 2:
As if drones don't exist yet. Humiliating my foot! What if Iran decides to destroy oil and desalination facilities in other Gulf countries in response? We just saw how Ukraine hit Russia's oil shipping infrastructure on the Baltic sea. We just saw how Iran destroyed multiple US planes on a military base in SA. The fucking moron seem to think every ground operation is a just another Venezuela excursion.
Exhibit 1:
Trump said: “To be honest with you, my favourite thing is to take the oil in Iran but some stupid people back in the US say: ‘why are you doing that?’ But they’re stupid people.”
Asked about the state of Iranian defence on Kharg Island he said: “I don’t think they have any defence. We could take it very easily.”
https://www.ft.com/content/3bd9fb6c-2985-4d24-b86b-23b7884031f5?syn-25a6b1a6=1
Exhibit 2:
Retired Gen. Frank McKenzie, the former commander of U.S. Central Command (Centcom), said Sunday... some of those islands you could seize and hold.
“First of all, it would be profoundly humiliating for Iran and would give us great weight in negotiations. The second, the example of Kharg Island, which everyone talks about, if you seize Kharg Island, you really can shut down the Iranian oil economy completely. And the beauty of seizing it is, you’re not destroying it,” he said.
https://thehill.com/policy/defense/5806811-mckenzie-us-iran-raids/
As if drones don't exist yet. Humiliating my foot! What if Iran decides to destroy oil and desalination facilities in other Gulf countries in response? We just saw how Ukraine hit Russia's oil shipping infrastructure on the Baltic sea. We just saw how Iran destroyed multiple US planes on a military base in SA. The fucking moron seem to think every ground operation is a just another Venezuela excursion.
(no subject)
Mar. 23rd, 2026 08:16 pmSince last summer, the Fed lowered interest rates three times, for the total of 0.75%. Nevertheless, the risk premium didn't change much because the fucking moron keeps creating unnecessary risks and stimulates inflation.
upd 3/28/26: https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/battered-by-stock-losses-investors-find-little-relief-in-bonds-af3f8a14?mod
..falling bond prices have driven up the yield on the 10-year Treasury note by almost 0.5 percentage point, lifting borrowing costs throughout the economy. Rates on 30-year mortgages jumped to 6.38% last week, reversing a slide that had carried them to their lowest levels since 2022 and threatening the spring home-buying season.
upd 3/28/26: https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/battered-by-stock-losses-investors-find-little-relief-in-bonds-af3f8a14?mod
..falling bond prices have driven up the yield on the 10-year Treasury note by almost 0.5 percentage point, lifting borrowing costs throughout the economy. Rates on 30-year mortgages jumped to 6.38% last week, reversing a slide that had carried them to their lowest levels since 2022 and threatening the spring home-buying season.
(no subject)
Mar. 22nd, 2026 01:38 pmTwo thirds of Americans don't buy into Trump's "imminent threat" narrative. 68% think that the administration has yet to explain clearly the goals of the war. 69% of Independents disapprove of the war. Ultimately, it's a Trump cult war.
MAGA remains behind Trump and the war. They have confidence in him, even when they think it might last a long time, and they overwhelmingly approve of how he's handling the situation.
Contextually, this pattern of support from MAGA is in keeping with what we've seen on other matters — across all subjects, including military ones — over the years.
(no subject)
Mar. 22nd, 2026 11:37 amPresident Trump threatened to “hit and obliterate” Iran’s power plants if the country doesn’t reopen the Strait of Hormuz in the next two days.
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/iran-us-israel-war-updates-2026/card/trump-threatens-to-obliterate-iran-s-power-plants-if-it-doesn-t-open-hormuz-strait-ZLzqUBs1JUhKGS1M76xc
Trump aspires to become a war criminal just like his Russian role model, the khuilo.
(no subject)
Mar. 21st, 2026 10:47 amIt's amazing to see how well the Japanese, esp. women, communicate without words. You always have to pay attention to it during negotiations. For example, here the Japanese prime minister Sanae Takaichi reacts to Trump's recent "Perl Harbor" comment. Watch the changing expression of her eyes, their movement, the turn of her head, the lips, the breathing pattern - all of it is classic Japanese theater without words. Can you read and interpret it?
https://x.com/AdamJSchwarz/status/2034668157718130718
If I'm not mistaken, there was a study during the pandemic that showed a difference in understanding of facial expressions between Western and Eastern people. In short, a mask on someone's face completely destroyed communications West–West, West-East, and East-West. By contrast, communications East-East were minimally affected because they were mostly through eye expressions, which is common in the culture.
Back to the Perl Harbor comment, what the MAGAsphere interpreted as a clever reply, the rest of the world perceived as a gaffe. Why? Because the question was about why Trump did not warn his allies about the impending attack on Iran, so that they could prepare for its consequences — oil shock, etc. Trump replied that "you" (Japan, who was a military adversary of the US in 1941) didn't warn "me" (the US) about Perl Harbor. It's a blunder on two levels:
1) The question is about a relationship between allies, while the answer is about a relationship between enemies. Instead of an meaningful answer, Trump produced a superficial brain fart. Obviously, warning one's allies about a pending military action is different from warning one's enemies.
2) Trump answer shows that he still thinks about Japan not as an ally, but as an enemy. Saying it in front of the Prime Minister of Japan is ugly and rude.
In any case, the episode was another Rorschach test that showed the gap between MAGA people and the rest of the world.
https://x.com/AdamJSchwarz/status/2034668157718130718
If I'm not mistaken, there was a study during the pandemic that showed a difference in understanding of facial expressions between Western and Eastern people. In short, a mask on someone's face completely destroyed communications West–West, West-East, and East-West. By contrast, communications East-East were minimally affected because they were mostly through eye expressions, which is common in the culture.
Back to the Perl Harbor comment, what the MAGAsphere interpreted as a clever reply, the rest of the world perceived as a gaffe. Why? Because the question was about why Trump did not warn his allies about the impending attack on Iran, so that they could prepare for its consequences — oil shock, etc. Trump replied that "you" (Japan, who was a military adversary of the US in 1941) didn't warn "me" (the US) about Perl Harbor. It's a blunder on two levels:
1) The question is about a relationship between allies, while the answer is about a relationship between enemies. Instead of an meaningful answer, Trump produced a superficial brain fart. Obviously, warning one's allies about a pending military action is different from warning one's enemies.
2) Trump answer shows that he still thinks about Japan not as an ally, but as an enemy. Saying it in front of the Prime Minister of Japan is ugly and rude.
In any case, the episode was another Rorschach test that showed the gap between MAGA people and the rest of the world.
Соскочит или нет?
Mar. 20th, 2026 03:28 pmPresident Donald Trump said he was considering “winding down” US military efforts against Iran, saying that the US was close to achieving its objectives as the conflict, which has roiled financial markets and the region, nears a fourth week.
“The Hormuz Strait will have to be guarded and policed, as necessary, by other Nations who use it — The United States does not!” Trump said. “If asked, we will help these Countries in their Hormuz efforts, but it shouldn’t be necessary once Iran’s threat is eradicated. Importantly, it will be an easy Military Operation for them.”
Trump, a little over an hour before his social media post, had rejected the idea of declaring a halt to hostilities and expressed confidence Hormuz would reopen “itself” despite allies’ reluctance to offer assistance.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-20/trump-says-he-doesn-t-want-ceasefire-in-iran-conflict
(no subject)
Mar. 18th, 2026 01:35 pmBefore the war with Iran, strategically minded people even within MAGA movement complained that the US is stretched too thin to confront China. In particular, they cited US commitments in Europe as a major drain on our military assets.
Now, after the Iran war, unless there's a dovish regime change, the US would have to extend its military umbrella over the Persian Gulf countries: SA, UAE, Qatar, etc. In short, the US will be stretched thinner than before. That would be the price we would end up paying for Netanyahu winning the next elections in Israel.
Now, after the Iran war, unless there's a dovish regime change, the US would have to extend its military umbrella over the Persian Gulf countries: SA, UAE, Qatar, etc. In short, the US will be stretched thinner than before. That would be the price we would end up paying for Netanyahu winning the next elections in Israel.
(no subject)
Mar. 16th, 2026 06:18 pmКогда Трамп потребовал от Европы и Азии обеспечить безопасность в проливе Ормуз, я по ассоциации вспомнил детский анекдот:
- Что такое сверхнаглость?
- Насрать под дверь соседу, позвонить и попросить бумажку.
- Что такое сверхнаглость?
- Насрать под дверь соседу, позвонить и попросить бумажку.
(no subject)
Mar. 14th, 2026 09:37 pmTrump built his perfect war echo chamber, so that his ego doesn't get challenged even in matters of life and death.
The Constitution explicitly forbids the echo chamber on war-related matters, but the pompous lying moron found a way around the prohibition by making this laughable claim : "the imminent threat was that we knew that if Iran was attacked, and we believed they would be attacked, that they would immediately come after us."
Preparations for a major military operation typically involve weeks or months of deliberations, written options papers, dissenting views from officials across different agencies, and meetings with the National Security Council. But according to administration officials, planning for the Iran operation was handled by a much smaller circle.
This included Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. While this allowed Trump to limit leaks and move quickly as events shifted, it also narrowed the range of advice and dissent that reached the president as he weighed the risks of attacking Iran.
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/five-takeaways-from-wsjs-reporting-on-trumps-decision-to-launch-a-war-in-iran-8ac226eb
The Constitution explicitly forbids the echo chamber on war-related matters, but the pompous lying moron found a way around the prohibition by making this laughable claim : "the imminent threat was that we knew that if Iran was attacked, and we believed they would be attacked, that they would immediately come after us."
