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People in the persuasion business know very well that the best way to get someone to pull your chestnuts out of the fire would be to convince them that doing so was their own idea in the first place. That is, if you care about the outcome it doesn't matter to you who gets the attribution for the original idea and its execution. Moreover, а vain person is an easy target for such _inception_ manipulation because they crave flattery.

When a couple of days ago both Rubio and Johnson stated publicly that Netanyahu forced Trump's hand in starting the Iran war and the next day Trump said NO-NO-NO it was _my_ idea in the first place, it became obvious to knowledgeable people that Trump's _denial_ was actually a confirmation of the Rubio/Johnson story. Exploiting Trump's vanity is a big business now — from presidential pardons, to tariff exemptions, to foreign wars; those with access to the president send and receive strong signals about how to get things done.

upd: once, a successful litigator explained to me the difference between an ok lawyer and a good one. An ok lawyer, while presenting evidence, tells the jury what conclusion they should make. A good lawyer doesn’t tell the jury what they should conclude until they have already come to that conclusion on their own.

upd1: WSJ, March 7, 2026:
His focus on winning over Trump was a departure from his long-held view that the path to influence in Washington ran through American voters. Netanyahu was a frequent guest on cable news, arguing Israel’s case directly to the public.

This time, he has taken an unusual back-seat role in driving the public rhetoric in the U.S. Netanyahu has emphasized Trump’s central role in the war and credited the president with key decisions, portraying him as the driving force behind the effort against Iran. In television interviews and public statements, Netanyahu has stressed that Trump acts in America’s interests and makes his own decisions.

That approach is playing to Trump’s instincts. “He has figured out how to persuade and partner with and flatter Trump in ways that have been extremely effective in advancing his goals,” said Daniel Shapiro, a former deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East.

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/netanyahu-finally-got-what-he-wanted-on-iran-by-appealing-to-an-audience-of-one-a0d39c7b
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South Texas is a heightened example of what contractors are facing across the country in areas where U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement activity has intensified. Home builders in Minnesota relayed similar experiences of raids picking up whole work crews, even those with legal documentation, said Grace Keliher, executive vice president of the Builders Association of Minnesota. Nationally, a third of commercial contractors reported being affected by immigration-enforcement actions in the past six months, according to a January report by trade group Associated General Contractors of America.

Two guards at a nearby immigration detention center said they frequently see detainees come in still wearing dusty work clothes from construction jobsites. A significant portion of the men they now guard have valid work permits, they said, which they haven’t seen in previous administrations, but those detainees still wait weeks to see a judge before being released.

Because of that, people are afraid to work whether they have legal authorization or not, a reality that has hit the industry and broader regional economy hard. Paul Rodriguez, CEO of Valley Land Title, estimated that residential construction activity fell 30% in recent months in Hidalgo County.

https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/texas-immigration-raids-economy-87e23e2e

ICE/DHS agents have quotas for daily arrests and they are highly incentivized to fulfill the quotas. Moreover, arrests counted against the quotas are not revised down even if a person arrested during the raid is released later. Therefore, doing the right thing, i.e. arresting only illegals, puts an honest and conscientious agent at a disadvantage because a) he'd have to spend more time doing verification; b) his numbers would be lower than average because they would not include lawful immigrants. This is a clear case of government corruption, where doing the right thing is disincentivized.

Anyone running a business knows that incentives matter because wrong incentives lead to wrong outcomes. When people voted for Trump in 2024 they partially justified their choice by the fact that in their opinion he was a good (rich!) businessman. What we see now is that he is a good businessman when maximizing his own profits and/or advantages, not pursuing public good. Ultimately, private business and public governance are completely different domains of expertise. I only hope is that the clique of scoundrels (Trump, Witkoff, Lutnick) and morons (RFK jr) will not do too much damage to the country.

upd. One more thing: Trump keeps touting the growing value of people's assets in 401Ks due to the stock market rise. Of course, as a businessman he knows the difference between value of assets and cash flow/liquidity: he himself went bankrupt several times because he was "assert rich and cash poor". This divide — assets vs cash flow — comes loud and clear in surveys, both formal and informal. https://www.wsj.com/economy/consumers/americans-rate-trump-economy-21b85459
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When it comes to honesty assessments of the Trump administration, Democrats are much closer to Independents than Republicans. Essentially, Republicans are opposite of Independents, not Democrats.

Democrats (93 - 2 percent) and independents (65 - 20 percent) think the Trump administration has not given an honest account of the incident, while Republicans (60 - 19 percent) think the Trump administration has given an honest account of the incident.

https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3947
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Россия ударила беспилотниками рядом со служебным автобусом одного из предприятий в Павлоградском районе, сообщил глава Днепропетровской области Александр Ганжа. По данным энергетической компании ДТЭК, которой принадлежал автобус, погибли по меньшей мере 12 человек, еще 16 получили ранения.

Операторы с территории России 100% видели и распознавали цель как гражданскую, видели, что это не военные, и приняли сознательное решение об атаке.

В воскресенье в результате удара российского дрона также пострадал роддом в Запорожье, сообщили местные власти.
Отдел Би-би-си по верификации информации BBC Verify подтвердил, что эти кадры были действительно сделаны в роддоме № 3Ю, который находится на улице Бочарова, в восточной части Запорожья.

https://www.bbc.com/russian/articles/cd0y8lpk244o
via svensk_vanja

Часто, когда вспоминаю покойную маму, в голове начинает звучать одна из ее любимых песен "По улице моей..." Taм есть две строчки, которые я не мог понять долгие годы: "И ощутить сиротство, как блаженство." Как так можно относиться к сиротству? Почему вдруг блаженство? Ведь потеря родителей, даже одного из них - это трагедия, или хотя бы часть трагедии.

Но недавно я увидел дискуссию добрых русских людей о Родине-матери. И тут до меня наконец-то дошло. Я мгновенно вспомнил то острое чувство, которое испытал уезжая из СССР. Это было именно оно — блаженство от того, что у меня уже нет и не будет той проклятой Родины-матери, которую мне вбивали в голову с детского сада. Все. Нет ее. Я теперь безродный космополит по-настоящему. Вот оно сиротство как блаженство!

mini-Musks

Jan. 27th, 2026 10:12 pm
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Women who were surveyed by Obi were essentially evenly split when it comes to choosing Waymo or Tesla, with Zoox a distant third at 8%. But 56% of men surveyed preferred Tesla to Waymo (25%) or Zoox (7%).

https://techcrunch.com/2026/01/27/the-price-gap-between-waymo-and-uber-is-narrowing/
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Хороший пример того, что "понять" означает не выяснить факты, а придумать себе нарратив, который соответствует какому-то внутреннему пониманию мира.

Человек начинает с намерения найти видео о конфликте. Задача необыкновенно простая, потому что таких видео в нормальных СМИ очень много, включая источники, на которые дается ссылка.
Впрочем нигде не могу найти видео начала конфликта: везде показывают, как он сопротивляется повалившим его полицейским.

Но некоторые СМИ утверждают, что есть какие-то видео, где он якобы подходит к ним не с пистолетом, а телефоном.

https://xaxam.dreamwidth.org/1333814.html?thread=8634422#cmt8634422

Что происходит дальше? Каким-то образом, она приходит к нарративу, в котором все факты неверные (разбор после цитаты):
Я так поняла, что они задерживали нелегала, а этот чудик решил зачем-то вмешаться.
Ну и получил, как пелось в той песне маслину.

А тот, кого они пытались задержать - удрал.
То есть мужик жизнь потерял из-за какого-то нелегального криминала.
Чистая премия Дарвина.
Да.

https://julinona.dreamwidth.org/494833.html?thread=5830385#cmt5830385

1. задерживали нелегала -- ICE не задерживал нелегала. Айсовец толкнул в снег женщину, которая снимала его на телефон.
2. чудик -- Мужчина, который решил помочь женщине был совершенно нормальным человеком. Он работал медбратом в системе VA, медицинских учреждений для помощи ветеранам, и у него была безупречная рабочая репутация.
3. получил ... маслину -- Мужчина получил 10 выстрелов в спину после того, как на него набросилось пять или шесть айсовцев.
4. тот, кого они пытались задержать - удрал. -- Женщина, которой помогал убитый, была американской гражданкой. Она никуда не удрала, а продолжала снимать сцену убийства.
5. жизнь потерял из-за какого-то нелегального криминала. -- В происходящем не было не только нелегалов, но и криминальных нелегалов.

Несмотря на то, что в нарративе нет ни одного верного факта (что проверяется элементарно), он является внутренне непротиворечивым рассказом о событиях. Она не врет, не создает спин, а искренне верит, что разобралась в происшедшем наилучшим способом. Никакие последующие обсуждения, не меняют ее нарратив.

Раньше я такое видел у часовщика, когда он по мотивам обсуждения в ЖЖ создавал себе фальшивый нарратив о том, как присяжные неправильно признали Трампа уголовным преступником. Сейчас не могу найти ссылку.
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Вот и Пастухов заметил (внезапно!), что Трамп и Путин - две стороны одногo хуйла.

К сожалению, мы достигли той черты, за которой не замечать существенного сходства политико-философских оснований идеологии MAGA и идеологии “Русского мира” более не представляется возможным. ... blah-blah-blah

https://t.me/v_pastukhov/1791

Опыт наблюдения за канадскими трампистами показывает, что, как правило, люди не меняют свое отношение к Трампу, пока события не коснутся их лично. Теперь в Европе симпатизанты Трампа начинают чувствовать*, что их мнение о Трампе расходится с реальностью. Израильтяне следующие.

* https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-18/uk-s-right-wing-parties-criticize-trump-greenland-tariff-threat
*https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-17/trump-s-greenland-play-is-a-step-too-far-for-europe-s-far-right

-- Leaders from the right of the UK’s political spectrum delivered their sharpest criticism yet of US President Donald Trump, after he threatened tariffs on European allies unless a deal is reached for the US to buy Greenland from the Kingdom of Denmark.

-- Alice Weidel, co-leader of the nationalist Alternative for Germany party — which German authorities classified as a far-right extremist movement and has developed close ties with the US administration — said Trump was acting no differently from Russia’s Vladimir Putin in breaching international law in Venezuela and threatening to do so in Greenland.
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Россия становится все подлее и подлее в атаках на гражданское население Украины во время зимы. Как говорил покойный психолог sapojnik, наиболее распространенное отношение русских людей - Надо Быть Скотом (НБС).

В ночь на 9 января российские войска нанесли массированный удар по Киеву, после которого ситуация с теплом, светом и водоснабжением в городе резко ухудшилась. В тот же день мэр украинской столицы Виталий Кличко заявил, что без тепла осталась почти половина многоквартирных домов — около шести тысяч — и призвал тех киевлян, у кого есть такая возможность, уехать из города.

https://meduza.io/feature/2026/01/15/v-kieve-posle-rossiyskih-udarov-sotni-mnogoetazhek-ostayutsya-bez-tepla-i-sveta
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Research shows real names curb toxicity. While not immune to misinformation and scams, LinkedIn lured people leaving X and Facebook as content moderation and fact-checking there declined. Many concluded it was worth trading rage bait on other platforms for earnest monologues about why getting laid off was a blessing in disguise.

The real-name rule doesn’t just stop jerks. It also pressures people to perform... the need to look professional has a hidden upside: smarter conversations.

https://www.wsj.com/tech/personal-tech/three-reasons-we-cant-get-enough-of-linkedin-31333eff


Although the article doesn't mention it, on LinkedIn people rarely mix politics and work, which lowers the temperature of the discourse.
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Your Key Survival Skill for 2026: Critical Ignoring

A pioneering 2021 study found that just 30 minutes of phone scrolling tires us out psychologically, actually reducing our ability to exercise. One 2022 paper concluded that a half-hour of social-media use before training caused enough mental fatigue to affect the hand-eye coordination of elite volleyball players.

https://www.wsj.com/tech/personal-tech/critical-ignoring-social-media-7e236f52
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A new crop of AI coaches promise the kind of personalization, expertise and encouragement that would come from a personal trainer, without the high price tag. I was intrigued. Could a robot fix my very human issues?
...
My ideal digital fitness platform would combine all of the above: Fitbit’s personalization and flexibility, Peloton’s accountability and Apple’s motivation. That perfect mix doesn’t exist yet, but workout apps have only just begun to embrace AI.

For now, the new Peloton AI is the best bot-powered system of the bunch, if you can stomach the economics.

https://www.wsj.com/tech/personal-tech/ai-fitness-coach-1ca345ec

This technology development has far greater implications for the future than Maduro's capture, esp. long-term; nevertheless, people will pay a lot of attention to images of a wannabe dictator of a very powerful country directing a successful operation against a real dictator of an insignificant country. Why this stupidity? Why people in power or celebrities in general attract more attention than powerful background processes of change?
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Back to the Allison Gopnik interview, she makes two good points about a) school education in general and b) science education in particular:

I think it’s not a coincidence, for instance, that so many kids really want to do music and sports, even though we all say, “No, learn how to code. That’s the thing that will actually be helpful to you.” Because music and sports are among the few examples where we actually do this kind of apprenticeship. You do the thing, you get feedback, you try and do the thing again.

One of the things I say is, imagine if we tried to teach baseball the way that we teach science. How do we teach science? What we would do is, we would tell everybody about great baseball games when they were little. Maybe when they were in high school, they could throw the ball a lot to second base. When they were in college, they could reproduce great baseball plays, but they wouldn’t actually get to play the game until they were in graduate school. If you taught baseball that way, you wouldn’t think that people would be as good at baseball.
...
I think the current way that we do schooling is a good example of Goodhart’s law. We teach kids — because kids are so good at wanting to be skilled — we teach them how to be good at school, which we think is going to be correlated with the ability to do a wide range of things as an adult. Then it ends up being a separate kind of skill.


There's another interesting spot in the conversation where she discusses ADHD, and to me her thoughts rhyme with the Little Red Riding Hood (LRRH) story:
...we know and we just take for granted that little kids like two-year-olds — we say that they don’t pay attention, but what we really mean is that they don’t not pay attention. They’re paying attention to everything at once. That’s why two-year-olds are really distractible.

Then, as we get older, we get this more and more focused kind of attention. People vary in how much they end up within that state of focused attention. I think there’re lots of reasons to believe that an industrial schooled society really pushes people in the direction of having very focused attention. We really want people to have very focused attention.


In the LRRH story, the wolf initially takes advantage of the young girl because she's easily distractible. Ultimately, she overcomes her "distractibility" and develops focused attention skills, partially before and mostly after her resurrection, depending on the version. In essence, the fairy tale presents a recipe for modern education, which took off back in the Charles Perrault days. Is this a coincidence or confluence?
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В западных сказках терпение как черта характера или линия поведения чаще всего принадлежит женщинам/девочкам. По-моему, это противоречит Библии, где Ева, не в состоянии терпеть искушение, срывает запретный плод. С другой стороны, это хорошо согласуется с Одиссеей.
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Regular reminder that Donald Trump’s core competency is not dealmaking with powerful counter-parties. It is duping gullible victims.

-- David Frum.
https://x.com/davidfrum/status/845314898276106240
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What Nagel has discovered is a fascinating architectural feature of the human mind: We are beings who can representationally distance ourselves from ourselves and make this fact globally avail- able through conscious experience.

-- Thomas Metzinger, Being No One. 2004


Nagel's book View From Nowhere is going to be next on my reading list
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Надо еще найти Маска, где он изображает себя с накачанными мускулами.




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I had a really strange meditation experience this morning. In the beginning, it was nice and deep, but after some time it got way deeper than usual. At some point, I felt so much internal warmth that I thought my whole body was going to explode. So I bailed out into reality as soon as I could. I wonder what it was.
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Культурные русские люди пробили очередное дно. Оказывается, в том, что Россия бомбит украинские города виноват "нерациональный" Зеленский. Надо было в самом начале войны капитулировать и разоружиться перед хуйлом.

https://andronic.livejournal.com/1014635.html

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