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Сегодня слушал Льва Гудкова на Живом Гвозде по поводу протестных настроений в России. Настроения есть, протестов нет и не будет.

Зато узнал важную вещь, почему в стране за 30 лет так и не выросло "непоротое поколение." Оказывается, перелом к конформизму в России происходит в возрасте 25-28 лет, когда молодежь начинает встраиваться в систему. Из этого я делаю вывод, что оттуда надо уезжать сразу после получения образования. Если не уехал(а), то стал циником и путинистом; в лучшем случае - с фигой в кармане.

Putin delenda est.
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https://www.levada.ru/2022/06/30/konflikt-s-ukrainoj-3/

Если предположить, что из России со временем уезжают западники, то было бы интересно посмотреть на результаты такого же опроса в диаспоре. В любом случае, российское общество в оптимистическом(!) сценарии не будет ничего делать, чтобы остановить войну. В. Пастухов пишет, что в России произошла революция черносотенцев, поэтому надо приготовиться к затяжному противостоянию. Думаю, на это уйдет два поколения.
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To plug the widening demographic gap, Germany needs more than 400,000 net immigrants a year, the country’s Federal Employment Agency estimates. However, economists expect half that level amid limited social and political willingness to accept high immigration in the aftermath of the 2015 refugee crisis. Language, professional qualifications and bureaucratic hurdles are also obstacles.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/aging-germany-is-running-out-of-workers-putting-europes-largest-economy-at-risk-11640180607


Indians and Africans are going to rule the world.
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Good luck getting a date on campus if you are a Republican.
https://twitter.com/nrothschild3/status/1468393783863783430


71% of Democrats wouldn't go on a date with someone with opposing views, versus 31% of Republicans.

https://www.axios.com/poll-political-polarization-students-a31e9888-9987-4715-9a2e-b5c448ed3e5a.html
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Well, 2/3 of Trump voters consider him honest and trustworthy. https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/4yijjbkc2z/econTabReport.pdf

The good news is that it used to be 3/4. Ten Republicans who voted in the House to impeach Trump reflect this change among their constituency.
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Just a thought while browsing news from Russia: historically, emigrating from Russia/USSR has always been the right decision, esp. long-term.
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Over 30 percent of children in the postcolonial Northeast were born out of wedlock. An unmarried woman who became pregnant sued the alleged father for financial support. Marriage might follow, but the community’s concern focused on the child’s financial well-being.
...
Ballard chronicles her bachelor son being accused of paternity. As a midwife, Ballard represented the community and questioned women at the height of labor to identify the child’s father. The society believed that a woman could not lie at that precise moment, and childbirth statements were legally binding.
...
Ballard lost five mothers out of 998 career deliveries. In comparison, London hospitals at the time reported the deaths of between 30 and 200 women per every 1000 deliveries. Ballard also recorded fewer stillbirths and neonatal deaths than her male counterparts. Some historians believe that the trend away from traditionally trained midwives and toward male physicians, considered to be more scientifically educated, negatively impacted women’s health until the mid-20th century.

--- R. Welch & P.A. Lamphier, Technical Innovation in American History. 2019. Vol 1, p 85.
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https://www.niskanencenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/Wilkinson-Density-Divide-Final.pdf

Self-selected migration has segregated the national population and concentrated economic production into megacities, driving a polarizing wedge between dense diverse populations and sparse white populations—the “density divide.”



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But the joy of the city was most apparent in the honour and loving favour which both the senate and the whole people bestowed upon the women, declaring their belief that the city's salvation was manifestly due to them. When, however, the senate passed a decree that whatsoever they asked for themselves in the way of honour or favour, should be furnished and done for them by the magistrates, they asked for nothing else besides the erection of a temple of Women's Fortune, the expense of which they offered to contribute of themselves, if the city would undertake to perform, at the public charge, all the sacrifices and honours, such as are due to the gods.

--- Plutarch, Lives (Coriolanus: 37).

https://penelope.uchicago.edu/Thayer/E/Roman/Texts/Plutarch/Lives/Coriolanus*.html





https://www.wsj.com/graphics/votecast-2020/
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https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/115/19/e4330.full.pdf

Read more... )
The 2016 election was a result of anxiety about dominant groups’ future status rather than a result of being overlooked in the past. In many ways, a sense of group threat is a much tougher opponent than an economic downturn, because it is a psychological mindset rather than an actual event or misfortune. Given current demographic trends within the United States, minority influence will only increase with time, thus heightening this source of perceived status threat. Although whites will likely still be the best-educated and most well-off racial group, by 2040, they are unlikely to dominate in numbers. Likewise, despite US status as an extremely wealthy country relative to those countries perceived to threaten it economically, many Americans find that small comfort.
...
Negative attitudes toward racial and ethnic diversity are also correlated with low levels of education. In this election, education represented group status threat rather than being left behind economically. Those who felt that the hierarchy was being upended—with whites discriminated against more than blacks, Christians discriminated against more than Muslims, and men discriminated against more than women—were most likely to support Trump.
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https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/1qb5j6pdqd/econTabReport.pdf

Trump voters don't trust most mainstream media outlets, except Fox, because they expose Trump as a liar, which is a practical impossibility in Trumpworld, i.e. "fake news."








"Not trustworthy" is a characteristic function, both for Trump and Biden voters.
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Бросается в глаза резкое размежевание в ответах в зависимости от возраста человека и канала получения информации. Молодежь и активные пользователи интернета, социальных сетей и телеграм-каналов скорее сочувствуют протестующим и возмущены действиями силовиков. Пожилые россияне, они же телезрители, оказались преимущественно на стороне действующей белорусской власти.

https://www.levada.ru/2020/09/07/belorusskoe-zerkalo-pochemu-sobytiya-v-minske-vyzvali-ostruyu-reaktsiyu-v-rossii/
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Как ни странно, у молодежи в России есть будущее. А в Белоруссии нет.
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The most common age among whites in U.S. is 58 – more than double that of racial and ethnic minorities.



https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/07/30/most-common-age-among-us-racial-ethnic-groups/
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https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/trcdohan8j/20200828_yahoo_coronavirus_crosstabs.pdf

The only reason Trump has a chance is the demographic shift toward the aging population.

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Голосование за Трампа в 2020-м году является безошибочным признаком мудака.




https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/cjd35jrh5o/econTabReport.pdf
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“About 60 percent of Americans under age thirty-five live without a spouse or partner. People under thirty-five are more likely to live with a parent than with a partner, an outcome not seen since the nineteenth century.10 It’s not only the young. The middle-aged also live increasingly apart. Almost one-third of middle-aged Americans, aged thirty-five to fifty-four, live without a partner.11 As their lives diverge, as sexual joy recedes, men and women also vote increasingly differently.”

--- David Frum. “Trumpocalypse.”


The WWII and the Pill have changed America.
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Thirty years ago, the world would care a lot less about COVID-19.




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Раньше, общественная мораль была построена так, что талантливому/знаменитому человеку (как правило, мужчине) многое прощалось. Согласно утилитарной арифметике, считалось, что польза от его/ее заслуг намного перекрывает тот вред, который он приносит близким или даже случайным людям. Лауреат Нобелевской премии по литературе, выдающийся философ-логик Бернард Рассел был хамом и бабником. Он мог, например, предложить симпатичной незнакомке сэкономить время на разговорах и сразу заняться сексом. По сравнению с собой, он считал остальное человечество тупыми говорящими животными. И относился к людям соответственно. В общество на это смотрели с пониманием: "у великого человека такие странности." Примерно так же относились к богатым банкирам и индустриалистам.

А вот у нового поколения молодежи, детей бумеров, отношение существенно другое. Они не занимаются утилитарной арифметикой и оценивают человека по критериям близким к моральному императиву Канта. Надо бы подумать, как проверить эту гипотезу.

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