timelets

Only 13% of those arrested at the beginning of 2025 didn’t have either a conviction or a pending charge.

Since October, 73% taken into ICE custody had no criminal conviction and only 5% had a violent criminal conviction, according to a Cato Institute review of ICE data.

Many of the criminal immigrants the Administration counts among those in detention are convicted criminals culled from prisons.

Syracuse professor Austin Kocher, who tracks official ICE data, finds that between Sept. 21, 2025, and Jan. 7, 2026, single-day ICE detentions increased 11,296. But only 902 of those were convicted criminals, 2,273 had pending criminal charges and 8,121 were other immigrant violators. ICE arrests have been trending upward since January 2025, but criminal arrests have plateaued.

White House aide Stephen Miller’s undisciplined mass deportation and zero-immigration policy is building distrust, and the White House pitch that public safety justifies its enforcement is losing credibility.

https://www.wsj.com/opinion/mass-deportation-trump-administration-ice-criminals-minnesota-tim-walz-kristi-noem-7f3bb88b

It’s hard to know what Mr. Trump might do next, which feeds public anxiety. But as his popularity ebbs, so does his political capital. His approval rating has sunk, his mass deportations are seen as excessive, tariffs are unpopular, and even GOP voters disliked his Greenland demands. Democrats took November’s races in Virginia and New Jersey in a rout. The GOP House majority is in peril, and the Senate is competitive. Mr. Trump’s attempts to gerrymander a safer House majority have backfired as Democrats have done the same.

The ultimate check on power is an election, and on that score Mr. Trump’s bull-dozing governance may be building the opposition that costs his party its majority in November.

https://www.wsj.com/opinion/donald-trump-greenland-congress-supreme-court-restraints-84dbc858

September 11 - 02:50 - Harris has Trump where she wants him
It's been an explosive 20 minutes in the Presidential debate, and Kamala Harris has performed strongly, especially around the January 6th insurrection at the Capitol building in Washington DC.

The market has reacted, with more than £300k wagered in the past 10 minutes, and Harris is now the even money favourite.

upd: £700k

upd: September 11 - 04:00 - £1m matched around the Presidential debate
A whopping £1m has been wagered on the Betfair Exchange US Election winner market around the Presidential debate, which has seen the market flip in favour of Kamala Harris.

https://betting.betfair.com/politics/us-politics/us-election-odds---daily-betting-updates-tips-on-the-2024-race-in-betfairs-live-blog-290724-6.html

It’s difficult to overstate how bad Joe Biden looked in the first presidential debate. He stumbled over his answers, sounded confused, and sometimes even forgot what he was saying halfway through. On the biggest and most important stage, Biden just couldn’t perform. It was easily the most disastrous debate performance I have ever seen.

Which is not to say Trump did well; against an alert, well-spoken opponent, he would have come off very badly. He seemed manic and incoherent; his answers to questions resembled unhinged rants, skipping from topic to topic and full of obvious falsehoods. He is obviously going mentally downhill in his old age as well — just not as much as Biden.

https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/time-to-think-about-a-second-trump