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Betting markets are firmly behind Trump.
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All polls point to Trump's win. It was very smart of his campaign to drop the second debate. Now, the public debate is no longer about issues, but rather about penises, stupid dances and other clownish acts. Against this background the fucking moron looks quite harmless and fun.


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The map of government spending also helps explain the rise of Donald Trump. He not only has promised to revive America’s economically stagnating communities, but to protect Social Security or Medicare from “even a single penny’’ of cuts.

https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/americans-government-aid-social-security-medicare-unemployment-34e92b19
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At this point Trump requires sane-checking, not fact-checking. That train left the station years ago.

https://x.com/7Veritas4/status/1835786783117967429

A guy tries to follow Trump's answer about coordination of national security and trade issues. It's impossible.
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Kamala Harris won the debate.

September 11 - 02:50 - Harris has Trump where she wants him
It's been an explosive 20 minutes in the Presidential debate, and Kamala Harris has performed strongly, especially around the January 6th insurrection at the Capitol building in Washington DC.

The market has reacted, with more than £300k wagered in the past 10 minutes, and Harris is now the even money favourite.

upd: £700k

upd: September 11 - 04:00 - £1m matched around the Presidential debate
A whopping £1m has been wagered on the Betfair Exchange US Election winner market around the Presidential debate, which has seen the market flip in favour of Kamala Harris.

https://betting.betfair.com/politics/us-politics/us-election-odds---daily-betting-updates-tips-on-the-2024-race-in-betfairs-live-blog-290724-6.html
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American institutions took major hits in just two decades:
1. Misguided, expensive wars in the Middle East.
2. The financial Crisis and the bailout.
3. Covid & vaccinations.

In the background we had globalization and major demographic changes that impacted jobs, voting patterns and racial relations. If Trump wins he'll try and at least partially succeed in further eroding public trust in American institutions.

Top U.S. officials shared a batch of evidence to support their claims that the Kremlin is engaged in an active and aggressive push to influence the vote in favor of Trump. In a rare move, the Justice Department disclosed internal Russian strategy meeting notes that U.S. intelligence agencies had obtained, which reveal granular details about the Kremlin’s strategy.

One Russian document listed “target audiences” including residents of swing states, such as Arizona and Pennsylvania, Hispanic and Jewish Americans, gamers, and users of the social-media site Reddit. It also detailed efforts to create online communities to unite voters who shared perceived Republican values.
https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/u-s-accuses-russia-of-spending-millions-to-influence-u-s-voters-be531b99
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I'm quite confident* that Kamala Harris will win the elections this year. Why? Because I've been correctly predicting elections for many many years now, using a highly subjective indicator, which I call "entertainment value." That is, fun candidates always win presidential elections in the US. Obviously, Kamala Harris is more fun than Trump** and she's going to be our #47.

* it no longer makes sense for me to monitor election polls, etc., b/c the game is over.
** back in 2016, I thought Trump had more entertainment value for the public, but I decided that Americans would not vote for an obvious clown with sketchy business experience. Boy, was I wrong!
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Current betfair odds:

Harris - 2.02
Trump - 2.06

upd: no former Republican presidents and vice-presidents at the Republican convention. FWIW, the Republican party is dead; it's all MAGA now.
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Harris is 1.89 (a 53% chance to win) and Donald Trump 2.22 (45%) to win as the market reaches a significant milestone in what could another recor-breaking election on the Betfair Exchange.

A total of £95m has been wagered on all the Betfair Exchange US election markets and there is still a long way to go before America goes to the polls on 5 November.

https://betting.betfair.com/politics/us-politics/us-election-odds---daily-betting-updates-tips-on-the-2024-race-in-betfairs-live-blog-290724-6.html
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Betting odds:

Harris 2.0, Trump 2.16.

https://betting.betfair.com/politics/us-politics/us-election-odds---daily-betting-updates-tips-on-the-2024-race-in-betfairs-live-blog-290724-6.html

 

Trump

Harris

Thurs Aug 1st

1.84 (54%)

2.3 (43%)

Fri Aug 2nd

1.89 (53%)

2.24 (45%)

Mon Aug 5th

1.88 (53%)

2.24 (45%)

Tues Aug 6th

1.9 (53%)

2.26 (44%)

Weds Aug 7th

1.97 (53%)

2.12 (47%)

Thurs Aug 8th

2.16 (46%)

1.97 (51%)

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Betfair odds: Trump – 1.98, Harris – 2.14

Harris is still down, but her odds have improved from 2.24 yesterday.

https://betting.betfair.com/politics/us-politics/2024-presidential-election-betting-the-latest-data-from-the-betfair-exchange-040624-6.html
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It’s difficult to overstate how bad Joe Biden looked in the first presidential debate. He stumbled over his answers, sounded confused, and sometimes even forgot what he was saying halfway through. On the biggest and most important stage, Biden just couldn’t perform. It was easily the most disastrous debate performance I have ever seen.

Which is not to say Trump did well; against an alert, well-spoken opponent, he would have come off very badly. He seemed manic and incoherent; his answers to questions resembled unhinged rants, skipping from topic to topic and full of obvious falsehoods. He is obviously going mentally downhill in his old age as well — just not as much as Biden.

https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/time-to-think-about-a-second-trump
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Rapist Sex abuser in chief:
The gender gap is widening.

Women 58 - 36 percent support Biden, up from December when it was 53 - 41 percent.

Men 53 - 42 percent support Trump, largely unchanged from December when it was 51 - 41 percent.

https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3889
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Asked about the indictments of Trump, more than 60% of Republican primary voters said each was politically motivated and without merit. Some 78% said Trump’s actions after the 2020 election were legitimate efforts to ensure an accurate vote, while 16% said Trump had illegally tried to block Congress from certifying an election he had lost. About half, or 48%, said the indictments made them more likely to vote for Trump in 2024, while 16% said they made them less likely to support him for a second term.

https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/trump-is-top-choice-for-nearly-60-of-gop-voters-wsj-poll-shows-877252b6


No shit.
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In one of the more shocking finds of the survey, a large number of Trump-voting participants expressed that they trusted what Trump would tell them is true (71%) more than they would trust what their friends/family (63%), other conservative media figures (56%), or religious leaders tell them as true.

https://www.jpost.com/american-politics/article-755613
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On betfair gamblers are dumping Trump. I think it's the lowest he's been since summer.



https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.128151441
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https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/115/19/e4330.full.pdf

Read more... )
The 2016 election was a result of anxiety about dominant groups’ future status rather than a result of being overlooked in the past. In many ways, a sense of group threat is a much tougher opponent than an economic downturn, because it is a psychological mindset rather than an actual event or misfortune. Given current demographic trends within the United States, minority influence will only increase with time, thus heightening this source of perceived status threat. Although whites will likely still be the best-educated and most well-off racial group, by 2040, they are unlikely to dominate in numbers. Likewise, despite US status as an extremely wealthy country relative to those countries perceived to threaten it economically, many Americans find that small comfort.
...
Negative attitudes toward racial and ethnic diversity are also correlated with low levels of education. In this election, education represented group status threat rather than being left behind economically. Those who felt that the hierarchy was being upended—with whites discriminated against more than blacks, Christians discriminated against more than Muslims, and men discriminated against more than women—were most likely to support Trump.

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