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The financial crisis killed America's Second Industrial Revolution, which started in the early 1960s.



https://www.wsj.com/articles/trumps-promise-to-revive-coal-thwarted-by-falling-demand-cheaper-alternatives-11600269350
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Вчера был в овощном магазине, и у меня сложилось ощущение, что несезонные цены выросли, как минимуму, на 40-50%. Пучки зелени точно стали в два раза меньше.

Decoupling

Jun. 8th, 2020 09:05 am
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Markets are going up, while Trump's rating is going down. This is new.
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Ну, что. Завтра этот мудак, играющий роль американского президента, объявит торговую войну с Китаем, и через десять лет мы будем с ностальгией вспоминать, как дешево — всего каких-то пять или шесть триллионов — Америке обошлись войны в Ираке и Афганистане. Он ведь не успокоится, пока окончательно не обанкротит государственный бюджет.
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https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52644816

A phased region-based approach seems to be the way out.
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... PM Lee said that to exit the circuit breaker, three things must be done.

First, Singapore must open up incrementally, making sure that the country is safe each step of the way. This is what New Zealand and Germany are beginning to do very cautiously, he said.

Singapore must also scale up testing substantially, to quickly detect any new cases that pop up.

"This we are progressively doing, not only by procuring test kits and equipment from other countries, but also by developing and manufacturing our own test kits."
...
The country must also make full use of IT so that contact tracing can take place much more efficiently.

"For these to work, we will need everyone's cooperation to install and use these apps, like what the South Koreans have done.

https://www.straitstimes.com/politics/prime-minister-lee-hsien-loong-to-address-nation-on-covid-19-situation-at-5pm
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Singapore PM seems to be the best source of information about COVID-19's and what could lie ahead for all of us, including here in the US.

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Practically, all international business travel has been cancelled, with very few exceptions. Personal international travel not advised, given the high probability of a mandatory 14-day quarantine upon return. Domestic non-essential travel to be avoided, etc.

All this means that my trip to Europe scheduled for April is not going to happen. Ah, well...
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In an economy booming by the traditional measures of surging stock values and rock-bottom unemployment, a key indicator continues to flash red: 18% of men aged 25 to 54 don’t have full-time work. That’s a vast improvement over the 25% who were idle or working only part-time in 2010. But by pre-Great Recession standards, the present resembles the bottom of a downturn, underperforming the worst points in either the 1990-91 or 2001 recessions.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-to-get-american-men-working-again-11574436197
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According to the Fed, the trade war with China is the greatest risk to the US economy:
“Risks to the outlook associated with global economic growth and international trade were still seen as significant despite some encouraging geopolitical and trade-related developments,” said minutes of the Oct. 29-30 policy meeting, which were released on Wednesday.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-officials-cut-rates-amid-worries-on-trade-global-growth-11574276730
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At the time, the president said a final deal would be finished in three to five weeks.
...
Trade negotiators had originally hoped a deal could be signed by Mr. Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of an economic summit in Chile on Nov. 16-17. But that summit was canceled, effectively removing what had served as a de facto deadline.

Looming now are plans by the Trump administration to impose 15% tariffs on smartphones, toys and other products from China on Dec. 15. The levies are expected to directly hit consumers as Mr. Trump gears up for his 2020 re-election campaign.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/stalled-u-s-china-trade-talks-raise-threat-of-another-impasse-11574202440


Stalled negotiations would explain why Covfefe urgently needed to talk to Powell. They want a backstop if the market reacts negatively to new tariffs and no trade deal in sight.
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"Well, they can’t be too upset, because I gave them $12 billion and I gave them $16 billion this year,” said Trump,

At $28 billion so far, the farm rescue is more than twice as expensive as the 2009 bailout of Detroit’s Big Three automakers, which cost taxpayers $12 billion. And farmers expect the money to keep flowing: In an August survey by Purdue University and the CME Group, 58% said they anticipate another round of trade aid next year.



https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-19/farmers-say-trump-s-28-billion-bailout-isn-t-a-solution
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WSJ shows that Democrats and Republicans live in different economies.
https://www.wsj.com/graphics/red-economy-blue-economy/

Taxation without representation!




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It's not about manufacturing any more:

Brazil, which overtook the U.S. as the world’s biggest soybean exporter several years ago, stands to gain ground. The U.S. share of world soybean exports is expected to drop to 31% this season, the lowest on record, while Brazil’s portion is forecast to swell to 52%, which would be its largest ever.



At an agricultural forum in Beijing last fall, according to Mr. Schickler, China’s deputy agriculture minister said China would not easily forget the current standoff, and China is building alternatives for soybean imports so it will never again be so dependent on a single source.

According to Mr. Sutter, the CEO of the Soybean Export Council, Chinese companies are working to develop soybean production in Russia, where soybeans haven’t yet become a major crop.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/farmers-built-a-soybean-export-empire-around-china-now-theyre-fighting-to-save-it-11562260248

Instead of US farmers making money by selling their goods abroad, the US government gives them a subsidy of $28B to offset its protectionist trade policies.
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“If the US does what it says, then of course, we welcome it,” said Wang Xiaolong, the Chinese foreign ministry’s envoy for G-20 affairs.

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/trump-confirms-us-wont-impose-new-tariffs-on-china


The fucking moron managed to make China look more trustworthy than the US. Overall, the entire Asia, including Japan(!), is rooting for the Chinese because they understand if China caves to covfefe's trade demands they could be next.
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Over the past 10 years, 40 of the largest independent oil and gas producers collectively spent roughly $200 billion more than they took in from operations.

Shale wells produce a lot of oil and gas early on, but taper off quickly, meaning drillers must continuously plow money back into the ground to maintain output. The Journal previously reported that thousands of wells drilled in the last five years are producing less oil and gas than companies forecast to investors.

Infusions of money from Wall Street, eager for a piece of the fracking action, fueled growth at Pioneer and other shale companies. Frackers tapped investors for more than $176 billion in financing from 2015 to 2018, using debt and sales of new shares to continue increasing production.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-leader-of-americas-fracking-boom-has-second-thoughts-11561388670
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Our so-called-president has decided to weaponize trade: now he's threatening to impose escalating tariffs on all Mexican products. Never mind that he just negotiated and signed a trade agreement, including tariffs, with the very same Mexico and submitted it for congressional approval. It looks like the idiot has found his magic weapon — tariffs — and he's willing to use it, with complete disregard for collateral damage to american businesses and consumers.

BTW, remember Larry Kudlow, the president's economic adviser, who about two weeks ago publicly acknowledged the obvious fact that tariffs imposed by the Covfefe adminstration hurt Americans? Guess what, he hasn't spoken publicly ever since because his boss hates it when his people say anything resembling truth.
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Two years ago I started buying espresso beans online from an artisan roasting house. They charged about $12/lb + $5 shipping, which felt quite reasonable. Now, the same pound of coffee costs $14.75. Should I stay with them or switch to Amazon?

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