Fucking Moron (tm)

[timelets]

Our so-called-president has decided to weaponize trade: now he's threatening to impose escalating tariffs on all Mexican products. Never mind that he just negotiated and signed a trade agreement, including tariffs, with the very same Mexico and submitted it for congressional approval. It looks like the idiot has found his magic weapon — tariffs — and he's willing to use it, with complete disregard for collateral damage to american businesses and consumers.

BTW, remember Larry Kudlow, the president's economic adviser, who about two weeks ago publicly acknowledged the obvious fact that tariffs imposed by the Covfefe adminstration hurt Americans? Guess what, he hasn't spoken publicly ever since because his boss hates it when his people say anything resembling truth.

Comments

[chuka_lis]

вы правы.

[timelets]

thanks!

[gomberg]

The unfortunate thing is, the idiots give each other the alibis. Our own idiot is pushing the country into a recession - now he has somebody to blame.

[timelets]

That's exactly why the process is so dangerous – both idiots think that they have everything under control. On top of that, we have an ongoing trade war with China and temporarily suspended wars with Japan and Europe. The Mexico example shows that tariffs can be imposed for whatever reason even after the US agreed to a deal.

[gomberg]

Well, they do have everything they care under control. The one thing they care about is their power, and it helps them both.

[timelets]

I'm pretty sure our idiot will be a one-term president. He's unpopular among voters and his approach to trade irks business leaders outside of his core cheerleading squad.

[garret_lab]

"I'm pretty sure our idiot will be a one-term president."

That is a very strange conclusion. Business leaders outside of his core cheerleading squad could be easily portrayed as "elites". In the moron's scenario-2020, the "people" is going to vote against those "elites", like in 2016. In my opinion, the outcome is highly uncertain, unfortunately.

[timelets]

I'm not claiming any scientific knowledge here. My reasoning is based on the fact that he is generally unpopular among voters and his only strength is economy. In 2016, the "elites" didn't take him seriously and after the tax cuts there was a feeling among business leaders that he could be ok after all. No more. This means that subjectively the "elites" would not make the same mistake the second time. And he won't have support from Russia. And, most importantly, he won't run against overconfident and unpopular Hillary Clinton.

[garret_lab]

I understand your reasoning very well. Nevertheless, we remember the "score" in 2016: 46% for the moron, 48% for "unpopular" Hillary Clinton. To be confident that 2020 is not a repetition of the 2016 disaster, I would expect "the moron v some challenger" polls to show pretty stable results like "42 v 48" among likely voters (or even better, if we add polling error margins and some possibility of systemic polling errors).

What I see in the reality at this moment (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/ as an example) is very different.

[timelets]

Right. But we need to think on the margin, i.e. what's changed for 2020 vs 2016? On the one hand, we've got the incumbent effect; on the other hand, no foreign interference, no surprise factor, no unpopular Hillary.

The race hasn't started yet, and the polls show that the current president is already unpopular. To me, this means the incumbent factor is not that strong.

[garret_lab]

С извинениями перейду на русский.

Что конкретно мы можем понимать под "the incumbent factor"? Разумеется, разное, но, на мой взгляд, это совсем не "президентский пюпитр"; скорее, это возможность начать популярную войну месяца за 4 до выборов, к примеру. Или, скажем, возможность устроить дикий скандал на тему финансирования правительства ("поднимание предела государственного долга") тоже незадолго до даты выборов, при этом максимально замутить воду (чтобы ни один избиратель даже и не подумал читать исходные документы), обвинить во всём демократов, а потом объявить чрезвычайное положение в стране. И насчёт вмешательства в выборы: что помешает действующей администрации сделать заявление о вмешательстве в выборы на стороне демократов какой-нибудь очередной Мексики или Венесуэлы, в связи с чем выборы отменить или объявить их результаты недействительными?

[timelets]

Наверное, мне нужно было выразиться точнее. Я имел в виду Incumbency Advantage.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Incumbent#Incumbency_advantage

Избирательный процесс будет поляризован, грязен и, в целом, противен среднему избирателю, что поможет говнюку, который сейчас занимает место президента.