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The real alignment problem:

The federal government will stop working with Anthropic and designate the artificial intelligence company a supply-chain risk, a dramatic escalation of the government’s clash with the company over how its technology can be used by the Pentagon.

The company’s red lines had been domestic mass surveillance and autonomous weapons, areas the Pentagon said Anthropic didn’t need to worry about because the military would never break the law with AI. Defense Department officials said Anthropic needed to fully trust the Pentagon to use the technology responsibly and relinquish control.

“We cannot in good conscience accede to their request,” Anthropic Chief Executive Dario Amodei said on Thursday.

https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/trump-will-end-government-use-of-anthropics-ai-models-ff3550d9

Trump and his administration are threatening to either kill or confiscate the best US AI model because Amodei adheres to some basic human norms.



Compared to that the war with Iran is small potatoes.
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Powered by encrypted messaging apps, anonymized platforms and a growing pool of people willing to move money for a cut, the system is agile, scalable and disturbingly hard to shut down. What began a decade ago as a fringe trend on dark-web bazaars is fast evolving into a sprawling global ecosystem of freelance money movers. Even the biggest criminal groups, long reliant on in-house laundering, are starting to tap it.

This is happening while the Trump administration is shifting funding and priorities away from money laundering investigations while also clearing the way for crypto to take a larger role in global finance. That raises the dangerous possibility that laundering operations could slip entirely beyond the government’s ability to police them, several watchdogs and crypto enforcement agents say.





https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2026-02-11/drug-cartel-money-laundering-shifts-to-crypto-and-the-gig-economy


Speaking of the Trump administration,

Both the Trumps and Witkoffs began cashing out during the run-up to the inauguration.

On Jan. 16, two lieutenants for Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the U.A.E. president’s brother, signed the deal to purchase a 49% stake in World Liberty for half a billion dollars—a huge sum for a company that at that time had no products. Of the upfront installment, $187 million was directed to Trump family entities, while $31 million was slated to flow to entities affiliated with the Witkoff family. The deal didn’t give the Tahnoon-backed entity any rights to the proceeds of future WLFI token sales, preserving the Trumps’ and Witkoffs’ income stream.

World Liberty stopped selling its WLFI token to the public in March. By then, the company said it had taken in $550 million from the token sales, in addition to the U.A.E. investment money.



https://www.wsj.com/finance/currencies/trump-sons-crypto-billions-1e7f1414
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Federal prosecutors in Washington sought and failed on Tuesday to secure an indictment against six Democratic lawmakers who posted a video this fall that enraged President Trump by reminding active-duty members of the military and intelligence community that they were obligated to refuse illegal orders.

It was remarkable that the U.S. attorney’s office in Washington — led by Jeanine Pirro, a longtime ally of Mr. Trump’s — authorized prosecutors to go into a grand jury and ask for an indictment of the six members of Congress, all of whom had served in the military or the nation’s spy agencies.

But it was even more remarkable that a group of ordinary citizens sitting on the grand jury in Federal District Court in Washington forcefully rejected Mr. Trump’s bid to label their expression of dissent as a criminal act warranting prosecution.

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/10/us/politics/trump-democrats-illegal-orders-pirro.html

It's really remarkable because the standard for a grand jury indictment is rather low:

Threshold: Probable cause (not "beyond a reasonable doubt").
Requirement: At least 12 of 16-23 members must agree.
Evidence: Based solely on evidence presented by the prosecutor.
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South Texas is a heightened example of what contractors are facing across the country in areas where U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement activity has intensified. Home builders in Minnesota relayed similar experiences of raids picking up whole work crews, even those with legal documentation, said Grace Keliher, executive vice president of the Builders Association of Minnesota. Nationally, a third of commercial contractors reported being affected by immigration-enforcement actions in the past six months, according to a January report by trade group Associated General Contractors of America.

Two guards at a nearby immigration detention center said they frequently see detainees come in still wearing dusty work clothes from construction jobsites. A significant portion of the men they now guard have valid work permits, they said, which they haven’t seen in previous administrations, but those detainees still wait weeks to see a judge before being released.

Because of that, people are afraid to work whether they have legal authorization or not, a reality that has hit the industry and broader regional economy hard. Paul Rodriguez, CEO of Valley Land Title, estimated that residential construction activity fell 30% in recent months in Hidalgo County.

https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/texas-immigration-raids-economy-87e23e2e

ICE/DHS agents have quotas for daily arrests and they are highly incentivized to fulfill the quotas. Moreover, arrests counted against the quotas are not revised down even if a person arrested during the raid is released later. Therefore, doing the right thing, i.e. arresting only illegals, puts an honest and conscientious agent at a disadvantage because a) he'd have to spend more time doing verification; b) his numbers would be lower than average because they would not include lawful immigrants. This is a clear case of government corruption, where doing the right thing is disincentivized.

Anyone running a business knows that incentives matter because wrong incentives lead to wrong outcomes. When people voted for Trump in 2024 they partially justified their choice by the fact that in their opinion he was a good (rich!) businessman. What we see now is that he is a good businessman when maximizing his own profits and/or advantages, not pursuing public good. Ultimately, private business and public governance are completely different domains of expertise. I only hope is that the clique of scoundrels (Trump, Witkoff, Lutnick) and morons (RFK jr) will not do too much damage to the country.

upd. One more thing: Trump keeps touting the growing value of people's assets in 401Ks due to the stock market rise. Of course, as a businessman he knows the difference between value of assets and cash flow/liquidity: he himself went bankrupt several times because he was "assert rich and cash poor". This divide — assets vs cash flow — comes loud and clear in surveys, both formal and informal. https://www.wsj.com/economy/consumers/americans-rate-trump-economy-21b85459
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Two months after the March meeting, the administration committed to give the tiny Gulf monarchy access to around 500,000 of the most advanced AI chips a year—enough to build one of the world’s biggest AI data center clusters. The framework agreement called for roughly one-fifth of the chips to go to G42, The Wall Street Journal previously reported.

The agreement was widely viewed as a coup for the emirate’s ruling family, overcoming longstanding U.S. national security concerns and allowing the country to compete with the most powerful economies in the world at the cutting edge of AI advances. Proponents hailed the deal for unlocking a flood of investment into the U.S. and for helping entrench American technology as the global standard.

What wasn’t publicly known: Tahnoon’s emissaries had signed the deal to purchase 49% of World Liberty that January.

At the time of the investment, World Liberty had no products. It had raised $82 million by selling a token called WLFI. Aryam’s investment, though, didn’t give it the rights to future WLFI token sales, leaving the Tahnoon-backed entity out of what was then the company’s only source of revenue, the documents said.

https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/spy-sheikh-secret-stake-trump-crypto-tahnoon-ea4d97e8

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We don't need AI to see that ICE, when not parasitizing on the work of regular police, with probability 95% are not doing their job of capturing criminals Trump promised to deport during his election campaign.
Only 13% of those arrested at the beginning of 2025 didn’t have either a conviction or a pending charge.

Since October, 73% taken into ICE custody had no criminal conviction and only 5% had a violent criminal conviction, according to a Cato Institute review of ICE data.

Many of the criminal immigrants the Administration counts among those in detention are convicted criminals culled from prisons.

Syracuse professor Austin Kocher, who tracks official ICE data, finds that between Sept. 21, 2025, and Jan. 7, 2026, single-day ICE detentions increased 11,296. But only 902 of those were convicted criminals, 2,273 had pending criminal charges and 8,121 were other immigrant violators. ICE arrests have been trending upward since January 2025, but criminal arrests have plateaued.

White House aide Stephen Miller’s undisciplined mass deportation and zero-immigration policy is building distrust, and the White House pitch that public safety justifies its enforcement is losing credibility.

https://www.wsj.com/opinion/mass-deportation-trump-administration-ice-criminals-minnesota-tim-walz-kristi-noem-7f3bb88b
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«Полицейские не ходили по квартире, они ездили по льду»

Пережившая Холокост киевлянка замерзла в центре города, обесточенного российскими ракетами.

Никто не знает точно, когда умерла баба Женя. Знают только, от чего: от холода. Пережившая Холокост киевлянка умерла от Холодомора — в историческом центре города, на Подоле, в многоквартирном доме на улице Почайнинской. День памяти жертв Холокоста пополнился еще одним именем в мартирологе: Евгения Михайловна Бесфамильная.

Полиция отказывалась заходить в ее квартиру еще и потому, что «запаха нет — значит, и трупа нет». Был бы труп — вы бы уже почувствовали, объясняли полицейские. А соседи еще полночи сидели и придумывали аргументы, как заставить полицейских открыть дверь.

Разгадка оказалась проста: труп был замерзший.

https://novayagazeta.eu/articles/2026/01/27/politseiskie-ne-khodili-po-kvartire-oni-ezdili-po-ldu

После таких новостей не то, что читать, даже открывать русский ЖЖ физически противно. Недавно, в очередном обсуждении котиков там прозвучали вопросы:
Каким способом можно видеть тоску или радость, представлять себе, развеселит нечто другого или напугает?

https://ivanov-petrov.livejournal.com/2632133.html

Как будто трудно себе представить, что Россия своими ракетными и дроновыми атаками на украинские города обрекает людей на холод и смерть. Те, кто запускают ракеты и дроны по тепло- и электростанциям прекрасно знают, чего они добиваются. А культурные русские люди живут в состоянии проклятой неизвестности.
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Хороший пример того, что "понять" означает не выяснить факты, а придумать себе нарратив, который соответствует какому-то внутреннему пониманию мира.

Человек начинает с намерения найти видео о конфликте. Задача необыкновенно простая, потому что таких видео в нормальных СМИ очень много, включая источники, на которые дается ссылка.
Впрочем нигде не могу найти видео начала конфликта: везде показывают, как он сопротивляется повалившим его полицейским.

Но некоторые СМИ утверждают, что есть какие-то видео, где он якобы подходит к ним не с пистолетом, а телефоном.

https://xaxam.dreamwidth.org/1333814.html?thread=8634422#cmt8634422

Что происходит дальше? Каким-то образом, она приходит к нарративу, в котором все факты неверные (разбор после цитаты):
Я так поняла, что они задерживали нелегала, а этот чудик решил зачем-то вмешаться.
Ну и получил, как пелось в той песне маслину.

А тот, кого они пытались задержать - удрал.
То есть мужик жизнь потерял из-за какого-то нелегального криминала.
Чистая премия Дарвина.
Да.

https://julinona.dreamwidth.org/494833.html?thread=5830385#cmt5830385

1. задерживали нелегала -- ICE не задерживал нелегала. Айсовец толкнул в снег женщину, которая снимала его на телефон.
2. чудик -- Мужчина, который решил помочь женщине был совершенно нормальным человеком. Он работал медбратом в системе VA, медицинских учреждений для помощи ветеранам, и у него была безупречная рабочая репутация.
3. получил ... маслину -- Мужчина получил 10 выстрелов в спину после того, как на него набросилось пять или шесть айсовцев.
4. тот, кого они пытались задержать - удрал. -- Женщина, которой помогал убитый, была американской гражданкой. Она никуда не удрала, а продолжала снимать сцену убийства.
5. жизнь потерял из-за какого-то нелегального криминала. -- В происходящем не было не только нелегалов, но и криминальных нелегалов.

Несмотря на то, что в нарративе нет ни одного верного факта (что проверяется элементарно), он является внутренне непротиворечивым рассказом о событиях. Она не врет, не создает спин, а искренне верит, что разобралась в происшедшем наилучшим способом. Никакие последующие обсуждения, не меняют ее нарратив.

Раньше я такое видел у часовщика, когда он по мотивам обсуждения в ЖЖ создавал себе фальшивый нарратив о том, как присяжные неправильно признали Трампа уголовным преступником. Сейчас не могу найти ссылку.
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Under the headline Videos Contradict U.S. Account of Minneapolis Shooting by Federal Agents (See how immigration officers escalated a fatal confrontation Saturday) WSJ gives a detailed account of the shooting:
...
As Pretti and the two other civilians walk away, one of the agents follows them.

That agent then shoved someone who appeared to be with Pretti.

Pretti immediately puts himself between the fallen person and the officer, who appears to spray a nonlethal chemical agent on all three of them.

As a struggle ensues, agents pull Pretti from the others; at least five masked DHS agents surround him and force him to the ground.

Bystander footage shows one agent drawing his firearm and pointing it at Pretti.

Around the same time, a different video verified by the Journal shows Pretti pinned to the ground and agents appear to discover a firearm on him.

In a statement, DHS said, “The officers attempted to disarm the suspect but the armed suspect violently resisted.”

Less than a second later, one of the agents fires his weapon toward Pretti—the first of at least 10 shots within 5 seconds.

As shots are fired, bystander footage shows another officer raising his firearm.

A preliminary analysis of the video’s audio suggests a total of 10 shots were fired from a single semiautomatic firearm, according to Robert Maher, a forensic audio analyst at Montana State University.

About a minute after the shooting, bystander footage shows officers shouting, “Where is the gun?” as they attempt to apply first aid to Pretti.

https://www.wsj.com/us-news/videos-contradict-u-s-account-of-minneapolis-shooting-by-federal-agents-fbe1e488
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Video clearly shows that Alex Petti is on his knees, pinned to the ground by multiple ICE agents. One ICE agent removes Petti's gun, stored in the holster in his back. After that, another ICE agent pulls out his gun and shoots Petti in the back multiple times.

https://x.com/evanhill/status/2015244452743258324
https://www.instagram.com/p/DT6KrVBFBrz/?hl=en
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Introduced in 1949, the Fairness Doctrine required television and radio stations holding broadcast licenses to present "contrasting viewpoints" on controversial issues of public importance. “The repeal of the Fairness Doctrine did not directly enable Fox News through a change in law for cable. Instead, the 1987 repeal (and subsequent deregulation in the 1990s) encouraged a media environment where, for the first time, a channel explicitly targeting a conservative audience with a specific ideological viewpoint was commercially viable.“
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WSJ Editorial Board is praying for the SCOTUS to grow balls:
The world is waiting for the Supreme Court to rule on the legality of President Trump’s “emergency” tariffs, and Mr. Trump’s weekend tariff spree against European allies underscores again why his abuse of his authority needs to be reined in.

The episode puts in sharp relief how open-ended Mr. Trump’s claim of tariff emergency authority is. He can declare an emergency on his own, he can decide which countries and goods he can hit with the border taxes, and at what rate. This means he can use tariffs essentially whenever he wants for whatever reason he wants. Congress gave him no such expansive power under IEEPA or any other statute.

Tariff apologists will say the Greenland tariffs show the uses of border taxes for foreign policy, but the taxing power is Congress’s under the Constitution unless expressly delegated to the President.

https://www.wsj.com/opinion/donald-trump-tariffs-greenland-ieepa-supreme-court-2a4a6591

On polymarket the current bet is 31% chance they won't.
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Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell plans to attend Wednesday’s Supreme Court hearing over the attempted dismissal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook by President Donald Trump, according to a person familiar with the situation.

Fed watchers and legal analysts say the outcome of the case will have a profound impact on the president’s ability to fire Fed governors and, by extension, on the central bank’s ability to set interest rates free of political interference.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-19/fed-s-powell-plans-to-attend-cook-s-supreme-court-hearing

Powell wants to look the Supreme Court judges in the eyes and see if they have any courage left to practice law at all. Too bad tv cameras are not allowed during the hearings. It's going to be a moment reminiscent of the Godfather II Committee proceedings episode.


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Under Trump, we are moving toward an authoritarian kleptocracy. The latest episode with Jerome Powell shows that money is the last resort against Trump's attacks. That is, the Fed Chairman doesn't appeal to the law because in an authoritarian state the law is on the side of the ruler. Rather, he appeals to the need for the Fed's independence and its importance for the markets.

It would be fun to make a cartoon sketch in the spirit of the Three Little Pigs. The first pig built its house out of norms and Trump easily blew it away. The second pig built its house out of law and Trump easily blew it away. The third pig built its house out of gold and so far we see how Trump is huffing and puffing, but can't make much damage to it, at least internally in the US.
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Remarkable, how hard Trump is trying to turn the US into a banana republic.
The Fed received grand jury subpoenas from the Justice Department on Friday that threaten a criminal indictment relating to Powell’s testimony, the Fed chair said in a video statement on Sunday night.

“This is about whether the Fed will be able to continue to set interest rates based on evidence and economic conditions—or whether instead monetary policy will be directed by political pressure or intimidation,” Powell said in the statement.

The investigation, which is being run out of the office of Washington’s U.S. attorney Jeanine Pirro, a close Trump ally, began in November and is examining Powell’s congressional testimony and the Fed’s spending records, people familiar with it said.

https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/federal-reserve-received-justice-department-subpoena-threatening-criminal-indictment-e9e3f84d



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WSJ review shows that ICE agents intentionally create situations that result in shooting of unarmed civilians in vehicles. They also violate rules of safe engagement taught to police officers.

The Journal identified 13 shootings involving ICE or CBP agents and civilian vehicles since July, using court records, news reports and gun-violence databases.

Footage verified by the Journal and a video shared on Friday by DHS show Ross moving in front of the vehicle while its engine was running, which former and current DHS agents say they are trained not to do.

The Minneapolis shooting shares characteristics with others the Journal reviewed: Agents box in a vehicle, try to remove an individual, block attempts to flee, then fire.

Footage from the shootings also shows officers approaching civilian vehicles with their engines still running—a situation police are trained to avoid. According to Kerlikowske, such training is designed to keep officers out of harm’s way.

Videos reviewed by the Journal show officers trying to open vehicle doors, reaching into vehicles and smashing windows, followed by drivers fleeing.

Police are trained to break a window only in specific circumstances, such as if the driver is armed or there is a medical emergency, said Alpert. In footage from the four cases closely reviewed by the Journal, none of the drivers had firearms, but DHS insists they were still dangerous.

Obstructing a moving vehicle
In at least three of the shootings, officers pursued a vehicle on foot. Footage also shows officers moving into the potential path of the vehicle or clinging on to it while it moved.

“It’s like policing 101. Don’t get in front of a car or in their potential pathway, especially if the engine is running,” said Jon Blum, a former North Carolina officer who now develops police training curricula.

Firing into a moving vehicle also creates its own danger, according to Alpert.

“If I shoot you, and I’m successful, now we’ve got an unguided missile,” said Alpert. “What if there are kids playing in the street?”

https://www.wsj.com/us-news/videos-show-how-ice-vehicle-stops-can-escalate-to-shootings-caf17601
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After the shooting, the Minnesota Bureau of Criminal Apprehension agreed to conduct a joint investigation with the Federal Bureau of Investigation, said Drew Evans, the agency’s superintendent. The FBI later notified Minnesota officials it would handle the investigation on its own and would no longer provide state officials with access to case materials, scene evidence or investigative interviews, he said.

Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem said Good had blocked ICE officers with her car and was “stalking and impeding” their work. President Trump described Good as “a professional agitator” in a post on Truth Social, alleging that she “violently, willfully and viciously ran over the ICE Officer, who seems to have shot her in self-defense.

https://www.wsj.com/us-news/minneapolis-shooting-sparks-protests-demanding-ice-leave-the-city-f349f269
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Costco Wholesale Corp. joined a fast-growing list of businesses suing the Trump administration to ensure eligibility for refunds if the US Supreme Court strikes down the president’s signature global tariffs policy.

The nation’s biggest warehouse club chain is among dozens of companies to file lawsuits in a US trade court since late October challenging President Donald Trump’s use of an economic emergency powers law to impose the levies, according to court records. It’s one of the biggest corporate players to jump into a fight largely driven this year by small businesses and Democratic state officials.

White House spokesperson Kush Desai said in a statement that, “The economic consequences of the failure to uphold President Trump’s lawful tariffs are enormous and this suit highlights that fact. The White House looks forward to the Supreme Court’s speedy and proper resolution of this matter.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-01/costco-joins-companies-suing-for-refunds-if-trump-s-tariffs-fall


Attention Costco shoppers: the US Supreme Court is about to decide on prices you pay in your favorite warehouse.
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“under US law, the heavier narrative task is placed on the prosecution, who must not simply tell a story, but tell one that is complete. It must have a central figure, fully equipped “beyond a reasonable doubt” with the motivation, opportunity, means and capability to commit the crime – that is, to engage in a complete action with a beginning, a middle, and an end. ”

-- Abbott, H. Porter. “The Cambridge Introduction to Narrative (Cambridge Introductions to Literature).”
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Though Trump has been in office for more than three weeks, he has yet to send a substantive bill to Congress. Some observers have compared Trump’s flurry of action to Franklin Roosevelt’s first 100 days, or Lyndon Johnson’s Great Society agenda. They are missing the point. FDR and LBJ sent big legislation to Congress. Trump is starting with a pipeline of executive orders. If the courts stymie those, they will be blocking his agenda. His strategy rests on a pliant judiciary.

He believes the US electorate gave him an unchecked mandate. It follows that any interference in his exercise of power — including an Alice-style belief that the US constitution means what he chooses it to mean — amounts to a block on democracy. Could he put 30,000 illegal immigrants beyond legal reach in a refitted Guantánamo Bay? Of course. The American people have spoken. Might he pick which of America’s creditors to repay and which to declare fraudulent? Quite possibly. Trump, not judges, will be the decider.

The Republican-controlled Congress has removed itself from Trump’s path. Unelected judges are the problem. Ultimate among those are the nine justices of the US Supreme Court. It is to their inboxes such dilemmas are heading. At stake is their reason for existing.

Turkeys are allegedly opposed to Thanksgiving. Yet the Supreme Court last July granted the US president sweeping immunity from almost any “official” acts. It takes little imagination to infer that this could be stretched to ignoring the courts. The six justices who put their names to that ruling may now regret their loose phrasing. They could have edited themselves into an advisory body. The problem the court faces is that Trump has a strong wind at his back. Constitutional lawyers warn that he could destroy America’s separation of powers.

https://www.ft.com/content/8e52b5ae-56b4-4571-ba09-103d5799ce9a

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