Military historian Phillips O’Brien: There have been no U.S. peace efforts in Ukraine.
There have been efforts to get Putin a very good deal, forcing Ukrainians to give up more territory and people. That is not peace. That is Washington trying to deliver Putin a success.
Another factor in Putin’s decision to fight on is that the Russian leader has lost faith in Donald Trump’s ability to pressure Kyiv into surrendering territory as part of a deal, according to one source close to Putin and another involved in backchannel talks.
“There was this widespread optimism in Moscow that Trump could deliver the Donbas after his election. It has largely evaporated,” one source in contact with Putin said.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2026/may/24/there-is-profound-disappointment-in-him-mood-in-russia-turns-against-putin
Now, Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, is taking the next step, one that would have been unthinkable even as recently as 2024. By word and deed, he’s showing Europe and the world how the post-American free world can preserve its liberty and independence.
...
No nation can match American might, but for the first time in my adult life, the moral and strategic heart of the defense of liberal democracy doesn’t beat in Washington. It doesn’t beat in London or Paris or Berlin or Ottawa, either. It’s in Kyiv, where a courageous leader and a courageous people have picked up the torch America has dropped.
President Donald Trump said he was in “heated negotiations” involving the war with Iran after mediator Pakistan asked for a two-week extension of his Tuesday deadline for Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-07/us-strikes-kharg-island-as-trump-says-iran-could-die-tonight
The U.S. has a strong interest in causing chaos for Iran’s military, and targeting can allow it to do so without bombing every power plant in the country.
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/iran-donald-trump-ultimatum-strait-of-hormuz-dan-caine-john-ratcliffe-4f9d3372
In internal deliberations before the war’s launch, Hegseth had pointed to Iran's muted reaction to Trump’s past attacks as evidence that calibrated force could impose costs on Tehran without triggering a broader war. Hegseth “was caught off guard.
The Administration also appeared to be taken by surprise when Iran reached for a source of leverage: control over the Strait of Hormuz, which roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply passes through each day. In response to U.S. strikes, Tehran implemented a de facto blockade, declaring the channel effectively closed and restricting passage to non-hostile vessels. The resulting economic shock had domestic reverberations that went beyond the expectations of Trump’s inner circle.
https://time.com/article/2026/04/02/trump-iran-off-ramp/
Trump said: “To be honest with you, my favourite thing is to take the oil in Iran but some stupid people back in the US say: ‘why are you doing that?’ But they’re stupid people.”
Asked about the state of Iranian defence on Kharg Island he said: “I don’t think they have any defence. We could take it very easily.”
https://www.ft.com/content/3bd9fb6c-2985-4d24-b86b-23b7884031f5?syn-25a6b1a6=1
Retired Gen. Frank McKenzie, the former commander of U.S. Central Command (Centcom), said Sunday... some of those islands you could seize and hold.
“First of all, it would be profoundly humiliating for Iran and would give us great weight in negotiations. The second, the example of Kharg Island, which everyone talks about, if you seize Kharg Island, you really can shut down the Iranian oil economy completely. And the beauty of seizing it is, you’re not destroying it,” he said.
https://thehill.com/policy/defense/5806811-mckenzie-us-iran-raids/
At around 6:50 a.m. in New York, S&P 500 e-Mini futures trading on the CME recorded a sharp and isolated jump in volume.
A similar pattern was observed in oil markets.
Roughly 15 minutes later, at 7:05 a.m., Trump posted a market-moving announcement about Iran on Truth Social.
At around 6:50 a.m. in New York, S&P 500 e-Mini futures trading on the CME recorded a sharp and isolated jump in volume, breaking from an otherwise subdued premarket backdrop.
A similar pattern was observed in oil markets. West Texas Intermediate May futures also saw a noticeable pickup in trading activity at roughly the same time, with a distinct volume spike interrupting otherwise quiet conditions.
Roughly 15 minutes later, at 7:05 a.m., Trump said on Truth Social that the U.S. and Iran had held talks and that he was halting planned strikes on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure.
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/23/volume-in-stock-and-oil-futures-surged-minutes-before-trumps-market-turning-post.html
MAGA remains behind Trump and the war. They have confidence in him, even when they think it might last a long time, and they overwhelmingly approve of how he's handling the situation.
Contextually, this pattern of support from MAGA is in keeping with what we've seen on other matters — across all subjects, including military ones — over the years.
President Trump threatened to “hit and obliterate” Iran’s power plants if the country doesn’t reopen the Strait of Hormuz in the next two days.
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/iran-us-israel-war-updates-2026/card/trump-threatens-to-obliterate-iran-s-power-plants-if-it-doesn-t-open-hormuz-strait-ZLzqUBs1JUhKGS1M76xc
President Donald Trump said he was considering “winding down” US military efforts against Iran, saying that the US was close to achieving its objectives as the conflict, which has roiled financial markets and the region, nears a fourth week.
“The Hormuz Strait will have to be guarded and policed, as necessary, by other Nations who use it — The United States does not!” Trump said. “If asked, we will help these Countries in their Hormuz efforts, but it shouldn’t be necessary once Iran’s threat is eradicated. Importantly, it will be an easy Military Operation for them.”
Trump, a little over an hour before his social media post, had rejected the idea of declaring a halt to hostilities and expressed confidence Hormuz would reopen “itself” despite allies’ reluctance to offer assistance.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-20/trump-says-he-doesn-t-want-ceasefire-in-iran-conflict
Preparations for a major military operation typically involve weeks or months of deliberations, written options papers, dissenting views from officials across different agencies, and meetings with the National Security Council. But according to administration officials, planning for the Iran operation was handled by a much smaller circle.
This included Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. While this allowed Trump to limit leaks and move quickly as events shifted, it also narrowed the range of advice and dissent that reached the president as he weighed the risks of attacking Iran.
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/five-takeaways-from-wsjs-reporting-on-trumps-decision-to-launch-a-war-in-iran-8ac226eb
![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
timeasmymeasure
