timelets

timelets @ 2026-06-16T11:11:00

2026-06-16T18:20:22Z

Кажется, израильтяне начинают о чем-то догадываться по поводу трамповского The Art of the Deal.

The U.S. will allow Iran to immediately begin selling oil and fuel under the deal to end the war, offering Tehran an early financial incentive to wind down the conflict, people familiar with the agreement said.

The provision for waivers of sanctions on oil sales takes effect immediately upon signing the agreement this week and also covers necessary services including banking, transportation and insurance needed to facilitate the sales, the people said.

Many lawmakers and political officials in the U.S. and Israel are opposed to giving Iran financial relief and easing the pressure of the American blockade before securing major concessions.

Allowing Iran to export its oil concedes a key point of U.S. leverage, but one the White House felt it probably had to give up to open the Strait of Hormuz, said Farzin Nadimi, an Iran-focused senior fellow with the Washington Institute, a U.S.-based think tank.

etc.

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/the-trump-iran-deal-allows-tehran-to-immediately-sell-oil-37a1ebe5

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timelets @ 2026-06-11T22:17:00

2026-06-12T05:18:57Z

Military historian Phillips O’Brien: There have been no U.S. peace efforts in Ukraine.

There have been efforts to get Putin a very good deal, forcing Ukrainians to give up more territory and people. That is not peace. That is Washington trying to deliver Putin a success.

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timelets @ 2026-06-06T09:43:00

2026-06-06T16:44:30Z

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timelets @ 2026-06-01T20:24:00

2026-06-02T03:29:43Z

"Хорошо ли это для Израиля?"

https://www.axios.com/2026/06/01/trump-netanyahu-israel-lebanon-call

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timelets @ 2026-05-24T22:38:00

2026-05-25T05:42:07Z

OMFG, Trump can't deliver Donbas to the Russians as promised.

Another factor in Putin’s decision to fight on is that the Russian leader has lost faith in Donald Trump’s ability to pressure Kyiv into surrendering territory as part of a deal, according to one source close to Putin and another involved in backchannel talks.

“There was this widespread optimism in Moscow that Trump could deliver the Donbas after his election. It has largely evaporated,” one source in contact with Putin said.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2026/may/24/there-is-profound-disappointment-in-him-mood-in-russia-turns-against-putin

He can't deliver Iran to the Israelis either.

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Trump tax on the US and the rest of the world

2026-04-29T23:42:15Z

The Fed lowered interest rates three times since August last year, for the total of 0.75%. Nevertheless, because of Trump's stupid war and his overall incompetence the 10Y rate is back up where it was back then. The markets don't believe that the moron can open the strait and now, in addition to TACO, traders have a new term for that — "NACHO", No Chance Hormuz Opens.

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timelets @ 2026-04-26T10:43:00

2026-04-26T17:47:58Z

Now, Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, is taking the next step, one that would have been unthinkable even as recently as 2024. By word and deed, he’s showing Europe and the world how the post-American free world can preserve its liberty and independence.
...
No nation can match American might, but for the first time in my adult life, the moral and strategic heart of the defense of liberal democracy doesn’t beat in Washington. It doesn’t beat in London or Paris or Berlin or Ottawa, either. It’s in Kyiv, where a courageous leader and a courageous people have picked up the torch America has dropped.

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Соскочит

2026-04-07T22:06:59Z

President Donald Trump said he was in “heated negotiations” involving the war with Iran after mediator Pakistan asked for a two-week extension of his Tuesday deadline for Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-07/us-strikes-kharg-island-as-trump-says-iran-could-die-tonight

Everyone, except MAGA idiots, knows that the heated negotiations are happening in his own head, as he's desperately trying to get out of this war. The markets are betting that he'll grab the lifeline thrown to him by Pakistan. What a moron.

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50/50

2026-04-07T02:56:36Z

Trump is considering whether to join Putin and Netanyahu in the race to become the next ~~Nobel Peace Prize winner~~ Hitler. The WSJ makes a halfhearted argument against it.

The U.S. has a strong interest in causing chaos for Iran’s military, and targeting can allow it to do so without bombing every power plant in the country.

https://www.wsj.com/opinion/iran-donald-trump-ultimatum-strait-of-hormuz-dan-caine-john-ratcliffe-4f9d3372

"Well, isn't that special."

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timelets @ 2026-04-05T21:58:00

2026-04-06T05:04:56Z

Ah, the good old days when generals were portrayed as crazy warmongers and the president with his staff were presented as intelligent and acting responsibly. Now, it's the other way around and sheer madness is called the art of the deal.

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timelets @ 2026-04-03T10:33:00

2026-04-03T17:38:28Z

In internal deliberations before the war’s launch, Hegseth had pointed to Iran's muted reaction to Trump’s past attacks as evidence that calibrated force could impose costs on Tehran without triggering a broader war. Hegseth “was caught off guard.

The Administration also appeared to be taken by surprise when Iran reached for a source of leverage: control over the Strait of Hormuz, which roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply passes through each day. In response to U.S. strikes, Tehran implemented a de facto blockade, declaring the channel effectively closed and restricting passage to non-hostile vessels. The resulting economic shock had domestic reverberations that went beyond the expectations of Trump’s inner circle.

https://time.com/article/2026/04/02/trump-iran-off-ramp/

Now, Hegseth is firing generals because they know he is the clueless amateur who got the country into a quagmire.

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timelets @ 2026-03-29T21:08:00

2026-03-30T04:28:41Z

I think these old farts will try to capture Iranian islands next weekend because "it's easy", just like the healthcare reform or tariffs.

Exhibit 1:

Trump said: “To be honest with you, my favourite thing is to take the oil in Iran but some stupid people back in the US say: ‘why are you doing that?’ But they’re stupid people.”

Asked about the state of Iranian defence on Kharg Island he said: “I don’t think they have any defence. We could take it very easily.”

https://www.ft.com/content/3bd9fb6c-2985-4d24-b86b-23b7884031f5?syn-25a6b1a6=1

Exhibit 2:

Retired Gen. Frank McKenzie, the former commander of U.S. Central Command (Centcom), said Sunday... some of those islands you could seize and hold.
“First of all, it would be profoundly humiliating for Iran and would give us great weight in negotiations. The second, the example of Kharg Island, which everyone talks about, if you seize Kharg Island, you really can shut down the Iranian oil economy completely. And the beauty of seizing it is, you’re not destroying it,” he said.

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/5806811-mckenzie-us-iran-raids/

As if drones don't exist yet. Humiliating my foot! What if Iran decides to destroy oil and desalination facilities in other Gulf countries in response? We just saw how Ukraine hit Russia's oil shipping infrastructure on the Baltic sea. We just saw how Iran destroyed multiple US planes on a military base in SA. The fucking moron seem to think every ground operation is a just another Venezuela excursion.

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Israel is becoming toxic on the right

2026-03-26T17:24:18Z

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Kleptocracy chronicles

2026-03-23T19:52:29Z

At around 6:50 a.m. in New York, S&P 500 e-Mini futures trading on the CME recorded a sharp and isolated jump in volume.
A similar pattern was observed in oil markets.
Roughly 15 minutes later, at 7:05 a.m., Trump posted a market-moving announcement about Iran on Truth Social.

At around 6:50 a.m. in New York, S&P 500 e-Mini futures trading on the CME recorded a sharp and isolated jump in volume, breaking from an otherwise subdued premarket backdrop.
A similar pattern was observed in oil markets. West Texas Intermediate May futures also saw a noticeable pickup in trading activity at roughly the same time, with a distinct volume spike interrupting otherwise quiet conditions.

Roughly 15 minutes later, at 7:05 a.m., Trump said on Truth Social that the U.S. and Iran had held talks and that he was halting planned strikes on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/23/volume-in-stock-and-oil-futures-surged-minutes-before-trumps-market-turning-post.html

Of course, there will be no SEC investigation into insider trading.

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MEGA!

2026-03-23T18:45:47Z

Make Earth Great Again!

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timelets @ 2026-03-22T13:38:00

2026-03-22T20:49:09Z

Two thirds of Americans don't buy into Trump's "imminent threat" narrative. 68% think that the administration has yet to explain clearly the goals of the war. 69% of Independents disapprove of the war. Ultimately, it's a Trump cult war.

MAGA remains behind Trump and the war. They have confidence in him, even when they think it might last a long time, and they overwhelmingly approve of how he's handling the situation.

Contextually, this pattern of support from MAGA is in keeping with what we've seen on other matters — across all subjects, including military ones — over the years.

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timelets @ 2026-03-22T11:37:00

2026-03-22T18:41:20Z

President Trump threatened to “hit and obliterate” Iran’s power plants if the country doesn’t reopen the Strait of Hormuz in the next two days.

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/iran-us-israel-war-updates-2026/card/trump-threatens-to-obliterate-iran-s-power-plants-if-it-doesn-t-open-hormuz-strait-ZLzqUBs1JUhKGS1M76xc

Trump aspires to become a war criminal just like his Russian role model, the khuilo.

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Соскочит или нет?

2026-03-20T22:35:44Z

President Donald Trump said he was considering “winding down” US military efforts against Iran, saying that the US was close to achieving its objectives as the conflict, which has roiled financial markets and the region, nears a fourth week.

“The Hormuz Strait will have to be guarded and policed, as necessary, by other Nations who use it — The United States does not!” Trump said. “If asked, we will help these Countries in their Hormuz efforts, but it shouldn’t be necessary once Iran’s threat is eradicated. Importantly, it will be an easy Military Operation for them.”

Trump, a little over an hour before his social media post, had rejected the idea of declaring a halt to hostilities and expressed confidence Hormuz would reopen “itself” despite allies’ reluctance to offer assistance.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-20/trump-says-he-doesn-t-want-ceasefire-in-iran-conflict

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timelets @ 2026-03-18T13:35:00

2026-03-18T20:47:39Z

Before the war with Iran, strategically minded people even within MAGA movement complained that the US is stretched too thin to confront China. In particular, they cited US commitments in Europe as a major drain on our military assets.

Now, after the Iran war, unless there's a dovish regime change, the US would have to extend its military umbrella over the Persian Gulf countries: SA, UAE, Qatar, etc. In short, the US will be stretched thinner than before. That would be the price we would end up paying for Netanyahu winning the next elections in Israel.

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timelets @ 2026-03-14T21:37:00

2026-03-15T19:22:56Z

Trump built his perfect war echo chamber, so that his ego doesn't get challenged even in matters of life and death.

Preparations for a major military operation typically involve weeks or months of deliberations, written options papers, dissenting views from officials across different agencies, and meetings with the National Security Council. But according to administration officials, planning for the Iran operation was handled by a much smaller circle.

This included Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. While this allowed Trump to limit leaks and move quickly as events shifted, it also narrowed the range of advice and dissent that reached the president as he weighed the risks of attacking Iran.

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/five-takeaways-from-wsjs-reporting-on-trumps-decision-to-launch-a-war-in-iran-8ac226eb

The Constitution explicitly forbids the echo chamber on war-related matters, but the pompous lying moron found a way around the prohibition by making this laughable claim : "the imminent threat was that we knew that if Iran was attacked, and we believed they would be attacked, that they would immediately come after us."

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timelets @ 2026-03-14T12:15:00

2026-03-14T19:21:21Z

As usual, Trump will create a lot of mess, proclaim a victory, then get bored, leave and let others cleanup his shit.

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timelets @ 2026-03-06T18:18:00

2026-03-07T02:55:09Z

People in the persuasion business know very well that the best way to get someone to pull your chestnuts out of the fire would be to convince them that doing so was their own idea in the first place. That is, if you care about the outcome it doesn't matter to you who gets the attribution for the original idea and its execution. Moreover, а vain person is an easy target for such _inception_ manipulation because they crave flattery.

When a couple of days ago both Rubio and Johnson stated publicly that Netanyahu forced Trump's hand in starting the Iran war and the next day Trump said NO-NO-NO it was _my_ idea in the first place, it became obvious to knowledgeable people that Trump's _denial_ was actually a confirmation of the Rubio/Johnson story. Exploiting Trump's vanity is a big business now — from presidential pardons, to tariff exemptions, to foreign wars; those with access to the president send and receive strong signals about how to get things done.

upd: once, a successful litigator explained to me the difference between an ok lawyer and a good one. An ok lawyer, while presenting evidence, tells the jury what conclusion they should make. A good lawyer doesn’t tell the jury what they should conclude until they have already come to that conclusion on their own.

upd1: WSJ, March 7, 2026:

His focus on winning over Trump was a departure from his long-held view that the path to influence in Washington ran through American voters. Netanyahu was a frequent guest on cable news, arguing Israel’s case directly to the public.

This time, he has taken an unusual back-seat role in driving the public rhetoric in the U.S. Netanyahu has emphasized Trump’s central role in the war and credited the president with key decisions, portraying him as the driving force behind the effort against Iran. In television interviews and public statements, Netanyahu has stressed that Trump acts in America’s interests and makes his own decisions.

That approach is playing to Trump’s instincts. “He has figured out how to persuade and partner with and flatter Trump in ways that have been extremely effective in advancing his goals,” said Daniel Shapiro, a former deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East.

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/netanyahu-finally-got-what-he-wanted-on-iran-by-appealing-to-an-audience-of-one-a0d39c7b

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timelets @ 2026-03-05T20:28:00

2026-03-06T04:30:10Z

За просчеты нашего хуйла будет расплачиваться Украина.

The US has cleared the way for India to temporarily increase its purchases of Russian oil, reversing months of pressure on the world’s third-largest crude importer as an escalating conflict in the Persian Gulf upends energy flows.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-06/us-issues-license-to-allow-some-russian-oil-sales-to-india-mme5qix4

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Great Negotiator!

2026-03-03T18:17:01Z

President Trump said in the Oval Office that he believed Iran was “going to attack first,” as he discussed his reason for striking Iran.

That perspective developed during negotiations with Tehran, he said.

“We were having negotiations with these lunatics,” he said, referring to Iran. “It was my opinion that they were going to attack first.”

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/iran-israel-us-strikes-2026/card/trump-says-he-thought-iran-was-going-to-attack-first--4ELJsHHebf6NV5Je3uF2

Our stable genius believed that when faced with a historic American and Israeli military buildup in the region and after its air defenses were pummeled in the last year's confrontation Iran would attack first. I hope he's lying as usual. The alternative would be he's dumb as a rock.

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timelets @ 2026-03-01T18:59:00

2026-03-02T03:03:26Z

This time around, the US didn't even try to present any proofs of Iran's nuclear misdeeds. Maybe because nobody would believe Trump anyway.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/just-one-four-americans-support-us-strikes-iran-reutersipsos-poll-finds-2026-03-01/

As before, Republicans are opposite of Independents, not Democrats.

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