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Based on my personal experience, I used to think that misogynists don't exist in real life. Over the years, I met all kinds of bigots: racists, antisemites, anti-LGBT, nationalists, elitists, religious, anti-religious, etc. But never a misogynist. I thought it was an invention of feminist extremists to portray a man as somebody who despises women.

Well, it turns out there's one right here in Vlad's feed (in Russian): https://minsk007.dreamwidth.org/ - quite an amazing character; I even feel somewhat sorry for him.

0->1

Dec. 19th, 2019 12:10 pm
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To me, one meaningful distinction between the left and the right does exist in the world of media: in two newspapers of record — The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal — landing web pages publish news reports on the left and opinion on the right. Since news are valuable, while opinions are a dime a dozen, I'm a consistent leftist reader.
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Parts of the country are dying out. Services they receive are the worst of both worlds: expensive and low quality:

In the medical desert that has become rural America, nothing is more basic or more essential than access to doctors, but they are increasingly difficult to find. The federal government now designates nearly 80 percent of rural America as “medically underserved.”
...

What Van Horn offered was a three-year contract with $300,000 guaranteed for the first year, which was about 50 percent more than Cummings could have earned in a big city. He wanted to practice in a small town where he could get to know his patients. His wife liked the nearby mountains. They would be close enough to drive back to Central Texas to visit family. The federal government would forgive much of his student debt as a reward for his working in a medically underserved area. Van Horn had sealed the deal with a $5,000 signing bonus and a $3,000 monthly stipend during the final year of his residency.
...
Even during his residency in tiny Winnemucca, population 7,400, he had worked with a medical team of emergency physicians, hospitalists and general surgeons. Once he started in Van Horn, he would eventually become the only doctor on call.

https://www.news-journal.com/news/in-the-medical-desert-of-rural-america-one-doctor-for/article_cff7ecda-e2f2-11e9-a269-330f202342cd.html


Transportation costs are high, specialization doesn't make business sense, investment into services infrastructure has no chance of paying off. Model-wise, the problem is the same as phone-based customer support.
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Two years ago I started buying espresso beans online from an artisan roasting house. They charged about $12/lb + $5 shipping, which felt quite reasonable. Now, the same pound of coffee costs $14.75. Should I stay with them or switch to Amazon?
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This is a perfect illustration for the Deleuze's concept of opinion as a proposition designed to divide/ people based on an affection. The tweet contains no scientific, logical (legal) or any other form of provable content. Instead, it expresses how the subject feels about the situation, which makes it impossible to have a meaningful argument about the proposition. As the result, the tweet succeeds in splitting the society into sharing and fighting tribes.

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The journey to a treatment started in 1949, when a British woman named Mary Jones brought her seventeen-month-old daughter, Sheila, to a Birmingham hospital. Sheila couldn’t stand or even sit up. Nor did she take an interest in her surroundings. A doctor at the hospital named Horst Bickel examined Sheila and informed Jones that she had PKU. “Her mother was not at all impressed when I showed her proudly my beautiful paper chromatogram with the very strong phenylalanine (Phe) spot in the urine of her daughter proving the diagnosis,” Bickel later recalled.
Jones wanted to know what Bickel was going to do now that he had discovered Sheila’s disease. There was nothing to do, Bickel explained.”

Jones rejected his answer. She came back the next morning to demand help. When he turned her down, she came back every morning with the same demand.

--- Carl Zimmer. “She Has Her Mother's Laugh.”

It's a good example to use for some early detection techniques.
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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-08-08/the-250-biohack-that-s-revolutionizing-life-with-diabetes

This is a good example of a new tech/biz wave that takes advantage of a cost structure based on intangible assets.

Read more... )
Twenty years ago, internet utopians envisioned scientific innovation gradually becoming more open-source. Instead, most amateur “biohacking” has remained fringe-y and often focused on aesthetics—inserting lights under the skin as a fashion statement, for example. But like the prosthetic arm a teenager built himself out of Legos, the device keeping Sydney alive is a rare example of the idea working out, at least in microcosm. By some estimates, as many as 2,000 people around the world have used a home-built pancreas, cobbled together mostly via social media and the free-code clearinghouse GitHub. Tech support consists of parents and patients who use Facebook Messenger or email to help newcomers fix bugs or revive busted equipment. There are plenty of potential converts: In the U.S. alone, about 1.3 million people have Type 1 diabetes, and there are indications the technology could also help some sufferers of Type 2, the group that accounts for most of the world’s 422 million diabetes cases.
Read more... )
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Если есть граждане, готовые хлопать любому дешевому трюку, то найдутся цирковые жулики, которые этот трюк покажут.

Например, дешевый трюк с торговой войной хорош тем, что войну в любой удобный момент можно прекратить и объявить о собственной победе. Еще эта война хороша тем, что "боевые действия" происходят не на собственные деньги, а на деньги государства и чужого бизнеса. Риска никакого, а аплодисменты любителей дешевых трюков обеспечены, особенно перед выборами.

Получается, что главный вредный внешний эффект (negative externality) от существования большого количества Рыцарей Свободы (fka трамповатников) в том, что они создают рынок для рыжих жуликов типа Кофефе. У таких жуликов есть сильные стимулы (moral hazard) придумывать и показывать все новые и новые трюки за чужой счет.


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The upcoming meeting b/w Un and Trump can be turned into an interesting game theory problem.

1. Kim has a broken nuclear test system that can't be repaired in the foreseeable future. He's also under sanctions. His strategy is to sell the broken system to the West; his payoff is to remove the sanctions and get additional benefits from S.Korea, China, etc.

2. With nuclear N.K. and belligerent Trump, Xi faces a challenge to China's ability exercise military and economic control over the Asia-Pacific region. His strategy is to demonstrate his "peaceful power" in the region; his payoff is to replace the belligerent US as the regional superpower.

3. Trump faces domestic challenges exacerbated by Kim's ability to explode a nuclear bomb over a US territory. His strategy is to play a tough guy and show that his aggressive approach to diplomacy works; his payoff is to be seen domestically as a shrewd dealmaker.

4. Lee sees the diminishing role of Singapore as the US withdraws from TPP and China dominates the region. His strategy is to show relevance of East-West ties; his payoff is to remain an "honest intermediary" in the changing region.
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В прошлом декабре познакомился с группой шведских предпринимателей; обсуждали всякие идеи технологий и способы создания новых продуктов. Понравился один из практических способов: позвать на мозговой штурм успешного дурака из отдела маркетинга/продаж. Успешного, потому что он хорошо знает, как достичь успеха на сложившемся рынке. Дурака, потому что он считает невозможным все, что находится за пределами этого рынка (т.е. его знаний и воображения).
Идеи нового продукта проверяются "от дурака": если у него зашкаливает оценка невозможности, то это может стать перспективным направлением в будущем.

В комментариях у angerona таким успешным дураком регулярно выступает yostrov. По поводу борьбы с глобальным потеплением он пишет: Если Вы хотите пользоваться моими деньгами для борьбы с Глобальным чем-то, то потрудитесь объяснить. Если не можете - не требуйте с меня денег. Второй вариант предпочтительнее."

Тут сразу две хорошие задачи для анализа классической free rider problem:
1) у человека есть сильный стимул не понимать объяснения, потому что это освобождает его от необходимости давать деньги на решение проблемы;
2) даже если он не дает деньги, он выигрывает, когда другие люди решают проблему на их собственные деньги.
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Polanyi’s well-known example of tacit knowledge is the skill associated with bicycle riding. The formal dynamics of balance on a bicycle do not comprise the rules of riding. A rider may know nothing of centers of gravity and gyroscopic forces yet can still ride, whereas the most expert bicycle engineer may not be able to do so. The rider knows how to ride but without being able to say how; indeed, too much self-conscious attention tends to be counterproductive.

The same tacit qualities apply equally to nonphysical cultural skills, such as recognizing significant objects in a “noisy” environment.



H.M. Collins, ibid.
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2016 YTD Anisimov - Kane - Panarin -> 17 (rank 2) - 16 (4) - 13 (17)

During the summer of 2017, Chicago trades Panarin to CBJ.

2017 YTD Anisimov - 7 (196); Kane - 14 (47); Panarin - 12 (78)
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Imagine that you have access to best experts in the field, and time and money is not a problem. Who should you ask for advice if you have to console a family of a recently killed soldier?

Here's some of your choices:
- a psychologist;
- a priest;
- a specially trained military officer with some help from volunteers (like they do it in the Israeli Army);
- a high-ranking retired general.

Picking the general is probably your worst choice because he's been trained in how to appeal to one's sense of duty when sending soldiers to their potential deaths (see Kahneman-Klein discussion on expertise). A bereaved family may specifically resent the general's appeal to duty in sending their husband/son/father to die. Gegetting an advice from a wrong expert may blow up in your face and discredit the expert.

This is exactly what happened to General Kelly. His informal advice to our so-called-president ended up in a public fiasco. Moreover, he was compelled to defend his poor advice, which exposed his lack of judgement on the subject.

We can draw two learning moments from this example:
- having money and access to expert services doesn't guarantee a high-quality outcome if the person procuring the expertise is incompetent;
- if you are an expert you should refuse provide services to incompetent clients.
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The hero ventures into a different world, obtains a valuable object and bestows its benefits on the entire humanity. People love him for that and make him the king.

The merchant ventures into a different world, obtains a valuable object and sells it to the few who can afford to buy. People hate him for that and tax his unfair profits.

upd. the nature of the goods obtained is different wrt their rival and excludable properties.
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Trump said: "If you get along and if Russia is really helping us, why would anybody have sanctions if somebody’s doing some really great things?"


The president is an agent of the american people in charge of, among other things, enforcing american laws. If the agent thinks that hacking a political opponent "is really helping us" and decides not to enforce sanctions, we have a classic Principal – Agent problem because the agent acts in his own interests, instead of the interest of the people (including those who didn't vote for him).
Principal agent.png

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