Win-Win-Win-Win
May. 12th, 2018 12:29 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
timeletsThe upcoming meeting b/w Un and Trump can be turned into an interesting game theory problem.
1. Kim has a broken nuclear test system that can't be repaired in the foreseeable future. He's also under sanctions. His strategy is to sell the broken system to the West; his payoff is to remove the sanctions and get additional benefits from S.Korea, China, etc.
2. With nuclear N.K. and belligerent Trump, Xi faces a challenge to China's ability exercise military and economic control over the Asia-Pacific region. His strategy is to demonstrate his "peaceful power" in the region; his payoff is to replace the belligerent US as the regional superpower.
3. Trump faces domestic challenges exacerbated by Kim's ability to explode a nuclear bomb over a US territory. His strategy is to play a tough guy and show that his aggressive approach to diplomacy works; his payoff is to be seen domestically as a shrewd dealmaker.
4. Lee sees the diminishing role of Singapore as the US withdraws from TPP and China dominates the region. His strategy is to show relevance of East-West ties; his payoff is to remain an "honest intermediary" in the changing region.
1. Kim has a broken nuclear test system that can't be repaired in the foreseeable future. He's also under sanctions. His strategy is to sell the broken system to the West; his payoff is to remove the sanctions and get additional benefits from S.Korea, China, etc.
2. With nuclear N.K. and belligerent Trump, Xi faces a challenge to China's ability exercise military and economic control over the Asia-Pacific region. His strategy is to demonstrate his "peaceful power" in the region; his payoff is to replace the belligerent US as the regional superpower.
3. Trump faces domestic challenges exacerbated by Kim's ability to explode a nuclear bomb over a US territory. His strategy is to play a tough guy and show that his aggressive approach to diplomacy works; his payoff is to be seen domestically as a shrewd dealmaker.
4. Lee sees the diminishing role of Singapore as the US withdraws from TPP and China dominates the region. His strategy is to show relevance of East-West ties; his payoff is to remain an "honest intermediary" in the changing region.
