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How do we measure fitness of a technology startup as a function of time/stage? Rapid positive changes in fitness would be considered value inflection points.

Also, rapid changes in fitness due to new entrants can be easily detected. For example, in the Three Little Pigs story, the appearance of the wolf impacts fitness distribution and as a result changes ROI of house-construction tech.
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It looks like Vance is a much better politician than a VC, because as a VC he's not good at all, except in raising money from his wealthy political friends.

Vance left Revolution in 2019. Shortly after, he started Narya with Greenspon. The pair raised $120 million in their first fund with backing from Thiel as well as venture capitalist Marc Andreessen and former Google CEO Eric Schmidt, according to a person familiar with the fund’s financials. That fund generated a multiple on invested capital of 1.67 and an internal rate of return of 24.35% after fees as of March 2023, according to an investor document.

Since its founding, Narya has made 14 investments, one of which is in stealth, the person said. They include Rumble, a video platform popular with the political right which went public through a special-purpose acquisition company, better known as a SPAC, while Vance was running for the Senate seat, and Hallow, a Catholic meditation and prayer app. Three others have ties to Vivek Ramaswamy, a businessman who once vied for the Republican presidential nomination and was a law school classmate of Vance’s.

Vance invested again in AppHarvest through Narya and joined the board in July 2020, according to the company’s securities filings. Other board members included Martha Stewart and investor Jeffrey Ubben. In February 2021, the company went public through a SPAC. Vance resigned from the board two months later to make his run for the Senate.

Months after Vance left the board, AppHarvest was sued by individual investors and a county retirement association in five separate lawsuits. These suits alleged that the company had misled regulators and investors and failed to disclose adverse facts about its operations, including a “lack of employee training and an inability to hire and retain employees due to attrition.” The company filed for bankruptcy in mid-2023.

https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/vp-pick-jd-vance-short-career-venture-capitalist-b3d941e1


Return of 24% over five years is effectively a loss for VC investors. We are dealing here with another business faker.
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We haven’t had a new exciting consumer technology in a while. Online meetings/education, although useful, feels imposed and buggy. To many, mRNA vaccines also feel involuntary and somewhat dangerous. ChatGPT doesn’t have any cool apps that a common person can relate to. All of that feeds into a backlash against tech in general. Musk's antics don't help either. The world wants some kind of penicillin or, at least, Angry Birds. None seems to be forthcoming.
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When you put your money in the bank you (your money) provide(s) a service to the bank, not the other way around like the vast majority of people tend to think.

Similarly, investors serve startups, which explains why hype cycle is similar to Turchin's elite-peasants exploitation pattern.
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Если бы русские войска вдруг пришли меня освобождать и в процессе установления своего русского мира сожгли мои любимые фруктовые деревья, я бы их рационально возненавидел. Потому что на выращивание сада уходят годы, которые нельзя взять взаймы у банка или сделать на фабрике. И детей бы научил ненавидеть. И детей их детей.

То же самое относится к выращиванию компаний или городов. Почему-то китайцы и вьетнамцы, прожив под коммунистами 40 лет, это понимают, а русские - нет.

Российские активы стали практически бесполезными для иностранных держателей, поскольку Россия запретила нерезидентам продавать их после введения санкций, отмечает Bloomberg.

Гражданин США Майкл Калви в 1994 году создал фонд Baring Vostok для инвестиций в российские компании. В разные годы он инвестировал в Ozon, «Вкусвилл», «Тинькофф банк», «Яндекс», Avito и другие компании.

https://meduza.io/news/2022/05/09/bloomberg-maykl-kalvi-uehal-iz-rossii

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< a href= https://gutenberg.org/files/3442/3442-h/3442-h.htm#chap07> ALI NUR AL-DIN AND MIRIAM THE GIRDLE-GIRL is one of the best, definitely most poetic, story in the Thousand nights and a nigh.

Read or (listen to) the whole thing.


https://ia600805.us.archive.org/20/items/thousand_nights_and_a_night_volume_8_1708_librivox/thousandnights8_32_anonymous_128kb.mp3

Vol 8. https://librivox.org/the-book-of-the-thousand-nights-and-a-night-volume-8-by-anonymous/

p.s. the story can be used to illustrate the contrast between investment and consumption.
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Here's what we are being distracted from
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/paradigm-shifts-ray-dalio

The enormous amounts of money in no- and low-returning investments won’t be nearly enough to fund the liabilities, even though the pile looks like a lot. That is because they don’t provide adequate income. In fact, most of them won’t provide any income, so they are worthless for that purpose. They just provide a “safe” place to store principal. As a result, to finance their expenditures, owners of them will have to sell off principal, which will diminish the amount of principal that they have left, so that they a) will need progressively higher and higher returns on the dwindling amounts (which they have no prospect of getting) or b) they will have to accelerate their eating away at principal until the money runs out.

That will happen at the same time that there will be greater internal conflicts (mostly between socialists and capitalists) about how to divide the pie and greater external conflicts (mostly between countries about how to divide both the global economic pie and global influence). In such a world, storing one’s money in cash and bonds will no longer be safe.
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A couple of learning points from the NYT article about Covfefe's taxes.

1. The real estate industry is massively subsidized by the government, both on the producer and the consumer sides.
2. Real estate assets perform quite well over the long run. You probably don't have enough of them in your investment portfolio.
https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2019/03/the-case-for-real-estate-as-investment.html

upd: the discussion that Trump is either a real estate genius or a looser doesn't make sense because he is both. The industry is inherently cyclical, highly leveraged and liquidity-sensitive. On average, the market rewards long-term investment in real estate.
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Currently, the government is deficit-financing corporate profits. If the tax reform is working we should see an increase in private investment.



https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=kNpP

also see
Minsky, Hyman P. Ph.D., "Stabilizing an Unstable Economy" (1986). Hyman P. Minsky Archive. Paper 144. h p://digitalcommons.bard.edu/hm_archive/144

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