Here it goes again.
Mar. 7th, 2019 10:47 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
timelets
TOKYO — President Trump has scaled back U.S. military exercises with South Korea, but that apparently was not enough to satisfy North Korea.
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Trump canceled Foal Eagle [joint US-South Korea military exercises] last year at the time of his first summit with Kim in Singapore.
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“It is a violent violation of the joint declarations and statements that North Korea reached with the U.S. and South Korea,” KCNA wrote." This also represents a frontal challenge to the aim and desires of all [Korean] people and the international community for peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula.”
It looks like the Dual Suspension agreement reached in Singapore might come to an end. After the resumption of US military exercises, North Korea started rebuilding its missile launch pads.
How would we calculate the probability that NK conducts a ballistic missile or a nuclear test before the next elections?
Not enough information
Date: 2019-03-07 08:51 pm (UTC)It’s hard to say when because material science work required for that does not leave many traces detectable from orbit, and their scientists do not post much on vk or instagram.
By the way, they are rebuilding engine test stand, not launch pads. They launch from wheeled TELs. So that is pure PR.
Re: Not enough information
Date: 2019-03-07 08:57 pm (UTC)WSJ says they are rebuilding their missile launch site. PR could be enough to trigger a US response, especially before the elections.
Re: Not enough information
Date: 2019-03-07 09:13 pm (UTC)There is work on the space launch pad (unrelated to military missiles), but it started before the summit.
As usual, Jeffrey Lewis has juicy details.
Re: Not enough information
Date: 2019-03-07 10:14 pm (UTC)Re: Not enough information
Date: 2019-03-07 10:28 pm (UTC)Re: Not enough information
Date: 2019-03-07 10:29 pm (UTC)Re: Not enough information
Date: 2019-03-07 10:33 pm (UTC)Re: Not enough information
Date: 2019-03-07 11:30 pm (UTC)