Here it goes again.

[timelets]

TOKYO — President Trump has scaled back U.S. military exercises with South Korea, but that apparently was not enough to satisfy North Korea.
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Trump canceled Foal Eagle [joint US-South Korea military exercises] last year at the time of his first summit with Kim in Singapore.
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“It is a violent violation of the joint declarations and statements that North Korea reached with the U.S. and South Korea,” KCNA wrote." This also represents a frontal challenge to the aim and desires of all [Korean] people and the international community for peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula.”

It looks like the Dual Suspension agreement reached in Singapore might come to an end. After the resumption of US military exercises, North Korea started rebuilding its missile launch pads.

How would we calculate the probability that NK conducts a ballistic missile or a nuclear test before the next elections?

"OK Go - Here It Goes Again" (Watch on YouTube)