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Nov. 9th, 2016
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Nov. 9th, 2016 10:43 amInteresting. The markets are betting on cheap money (banks), government spending (defense, construction equipment), rising costs in healthcare (pharma), slowdown in the overall economy (low interest rates), big oil, somewhat against tech (flight from risk) and strongly against green tech.
Carl Icahn Left Trump Victory Party To Bet $1 Billion On U.S. Stocks
Every sector that he mentions in the conversation as over-regulated gained 2-5% today. Is this insider trading? Of course, not. But it does make sense to be at the right party at the right time.
Every sector that he mentions in the conversation as over-regulated gained 2-5% today. Is this insider trading? Of course, not. But it does make sense to be at the right party at the right time.
Eight years of Trump
Nov. 9th, 2016 07:21 pmTrump's biggest beef with the "financial elites" was that after a number of his spectacular bankruptcies nobody would lend him any money. For a person who loved to speculate with "other people's money" it was a disaster and he hated the Wall Street for that.
Now, the voters of the Rust Belt entrusted Trump with the entire United States Treasury. The early indications are that he's going to spend the money with abandon and the Congress will not mind it at all because Trump's "infrastructure investments" mandated by the government will be laden with pork. In combination with major tax reductions, the plan is likely to produce large budget deficits and inflation (remember Milton Friedman's work?). Typically, the Fed tries to curtail the inflation by raising interest rates. But here's the catch: in 2018 Trump plans to appoint a new Fed Chairman who would help promote Trump's expansionary economic agenda. Given Trump's track record, we know what to expect: rapid growth for the first 2-4 years (morons will be happy to re-elect Trump in 2020), troubles during the next 2-3 years, then a blowup. Although, in this case it'll be the taxpayers, not Trump Airline investors, who will hold the empty bag.
As an individual investor, I don't have a problem with that because I win both with low taxes and access to quality investment opportunities. On the other hand, an average citizen, including the poorly educated morons in the Rust Belt who voted Trump into the office yesterday, will end up with no pension, no medical care and a huge deficit hanging over their children and grandchildren. Unfortunately, it'll be too late to teach them that you can't make something great again, because you can only make something great anew.
Now, the voters of the Rust Belt entrusted Trump with the entire United States Treasury. The early indications are that he's going to spend the money with abandon and the Congress will not mind it at all because Trump's "infrastructure investments" mandated by the government will be laden with pork. In combination with major tax reductions, the plan is likely to produce large budget deficits and inflation (remember Milton Friedman's work?). Typically, the Fed tries to curtail the inflation by raising interest rates. But here's the catch: in 2018 Trump plans to appoint a new Fed Chairman who would help promote Trump's expansionary economic agenda. Given Trump's track record, we know what to expect: rapid growth for the first 2-4 years (morons will be happy to re-elect Trump in 2020), troubles during the next 2-3 years, then a blowup. Although, in this case it'll be the taxpayers, not Trump Airline investors, who will hold the empty bag.
As an individual investor, I don't have a problem with that because I win both with low taxes and access to quality investment opportunities. On the other hand, an average citizen, including the poorly educated morons in the Rust Belt who voted Trump into the office yesterday, will end up with no pension, no medical care and a huge deficit hanging over their children and grandchildren. Unfortunately, it'll be too late to teach them that you can't make something great again, because you can only make something great anew.
Посадят Хилари Клинтон в тюрьму или нет?
Nov. 9th, 2016 10:27 pmПо логике затрампистов, теперь, когда их неподкупный и справедливый Лидер пришел к власти, он должен добиться торжества закона и постараться посадить crooked Hillary в тюрьму. Вся эта свистопляска с мыльным сервером и фондом Клинтонов должна быть тщательно расследована и передана в суд. Иначе получается, что избирательная кампания неподкупного и справедливого Лидера была построена на обмане избирателей. Этого же не может быть!
Who is responsible for educating adults?
Nov. 9th, 2016 11:59 pmLet's sketch out some thoughts on education.
- Trump won because a large portion of whites without a college degree voted for him;
- They voted for him because they felt that their jobs are disappearing (China, Mexico, Robots, AI etc.);
- The disappearance of those jobs leaves the workers without good economic opportunities;
- There are other opportunities in the economy, but the workers don't have enough education to take advantage of them;
- When they originally took their disappearing jobs their level of education was sufficient;
- At some point in their careers they had a decision to make whether to spend their time on re-educating themselves or continue working;
- If they decide to re-educate themselves they lose current earnings from working;
- If they decide to continue working they lose future earnings due to the disappearance of jobs;
- This is a difficult problem for an individual to solve and s/he can make a mistake;
- On the one hand, the individual is responsible for his/her own mistakes;
- On the other hand, the individual who made a mistake becomes a burden on the society after his/her job disappears;
- On a yet another hand, the individual (e.g. as a citizen voting for Trump) can force the society to supply him/her with a job;
- If the individual makes a mistake by voting for Trump due to his earlier mistake, he imposes a cost on the society, e.g. due to inefficiency;
- If Trump supplies the job to the individual using public resources, he creates another inefficiency;
- To avoid all these inefficiencies, it would be rational for the society to re-educate its members at the right time during their working careers;
- Education for children is mandatory; education for adults is voluntary;
- When an adult makes a wrong re-education decision, the society bears the cost of the mistake;
- As technology cycles shorten, the probability of mistakes increases, which causes an increase in costs, both economic and political.
Question 1: How should we treat individuals who make educational mistakes in their own careers?
Question 2: Who should bear the costs of re-educating the individual?
Question 3: Should we eliminate the need for re-education by preventing jobs from disappearing?
Question 4: Should we mandate individuals to re-educate themselves during their working careers?
Question 5: Is re-education a negative externality imposed by innovation on the society?
- Trump won because a large portion of whites without a college degree voted for him;
- They voted for him because they felt that their jobs are disappearing (China, Mexico, Robots, AI etc.);
- The disappearance of those jobs leaves the workers without good economic opportunities;
- There are other opportunities in the economy, but the workers don't have enough education to take advantage of them;
- When they originally took their disappearing jobs their level of education was sufficient;
- At some point in their careers they had a decision to make whether to spend their time on re-educating themselves or continue working;
- If they decide to re-educate themselves they lose current earnings from working;
- If they decide to continue working they lose future earnings due to the disappearance of jobs;
- This is a difficult problem for an individual to solve and s/he can make a mistake;
- On the one hand, the individual is responsible for his/her own mistakes;
- On the other hand, the individual who made a mistake becomes a burden on the society after his/her job disappears;
- On a yet another hand, the individual (e.g. as a citizen voting for Trump) can force the society to supply him/her with a job;
- If the individual makes a mistake by voting for Trump due to his earlier mistake, he imposes a cost on the society, e.g. due to inefficiency;
- If Trump supplies the job to the individual using public resources, he creates another inefficiency;
- To avoid all these inefficiencies, it would be rational for the society to re-educate its members at the right time during their working careers;
- Education for children is mandatory; education for adults is voluntary;
- When an adult makes a wrong re-education decision, the society bears the cost of the mistake;
- As technology cycles shorten, the probability of mistakes increases, which causes an increase in costs, both economic and political.
Question 1: How should we treat individuals who make educational mistakes in their own careers?
Question 2: Who should bear the costs of re-educating the individual?
Question 3: Should we eliminate the need for re-education by preventing jobs from disappearing?
Question 4: Should we mandate individuals to re-educate themselves during their working careers?
Question 5: Is re-education a negative externality imposed by innovation on the society?