(no subject)

[timelets]

Before the war with Iran, strategically minded people even within MAGA movement complained that the US is stretched too thin to confront China. In particular, they cited US commitments in Europe as a major drain on our military assets.

Now, after the Iran war, unless there's a dovish regime change, the US would have to extend its military umbrella over the Persian Gulf countries: SA, UAE, Qatar, etc. In short, the US will be stretched thinner than before. That would be the price we would end up paying for Netanyahu winning the next elections in Israel.

Comments

[ppk_ptichkin]

Well, what *can* happen with the Hormuz strait?

1. Whoever controls Iran will be able to collect tolls - all it takes is landing a single hit on a supertanker.

2. The folks now in charge in Iran, courtesy of Bibi, don’t give a shit about Iran’s standing in the world, etc. - and in any case, they now have a pretty strong argument against diplomacy. So they will negotiate by extortion. Best leverage of all, as our stable genius will tell you. They do need money to rebuild.

3. The strait will need to open soon, there’s just too much money involved.

So Hormuz will likely be open in a couple months, on the understanding that Iran gets to do its thing, including these “death to Israel” chants, tolls are paid on time, the US presence in the Gulf is scaled down to (eventually) zero, and the rapprochement between Arab states and Israel is rolled back. That would work for everyone.