Кто виноват и что делать?
Jan. 30th, 2019 04:38 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
timeletsDalio writes:
The macro options are isomorphic to:
1 the Austrians;
2 Friedman, more or less;
3. Keynes;
4. Marx.
In Davos this year, many realized that should the developed world hit the next debt crisis, option 4 is quite probable because 2-3 have been exhausted in the previous cycle, while 1 is not feasible given the rise of populism, esp. in its nationalistic version.
upd. Furman and Summers argue that deficit financing is ok in downturns, i.e. 3 is the best option. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2019-01-27/whos-afraid-budget-deficits
There are four types of levers that policy makers can pull to bring debt and debt service levels down relative to the income and cash flow levels that are required to service them:
1) Austerity (i.e., spending less)
2) Debt defaults/restructurings
3) The central bank “printing money” and making purchases (or providing guarantees)
4) Transfers of money and credit from those who have more than they need to those who have less.
The macro options are isomorphic to:
1 the Austrians;
2 Friedman, more or less;
3. Keynes;
4. Marx.
In Davos this year, many realized that should the developed world hit the next debt crisis, option 4 is quite probable because 2-3 have been exhausted in the previous cycle, while 1 is not feasible given the rise of populism, esp. in its nationalistic version.
upd. Furman and Summers argue that deficit financing is ok in downturns, i.e. 3 is the best option. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2019-01-27/whos-afraid-budget-deficits
