timelets | A Maria Antoinette moment

Wilbur Ross, a billionaire and the current Commerce Secretary, doesn't understand why federal workers who don't get paid can't get a loan from a bank.

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From:

gomberg

It is more than culture. It is incentives they, actually, face. As of two years ago doing anything else would have been simply stupid.

From:

timelets

Of course, if a person doesn't have any aspirations beyond day-to-day survival the incentives would be limited to day–to–day survival.

From:

gomberg

And if a person has no incentives beyond avoiding the risk of facing a once-in-a-hundred-years shock, the incentives will be limited to saving for that particular occurance.

But I am not sure I would take the savings behavior of certain Chinese immigrants in the US as something I would necessarily want to imitate in my life. Would you?

From:

timelets

People don't have retirement savings either, although they know they are going to face this shock eventually. It's just something they prefer not to think about.

I read a paper recently that said Americans tend to blow their budgets and gain weight, while eating out. Do you think they are going to eat out less frequently or buy an exercise tracking device? A certain Chinese immigrant would chose the former and I would want to imitated that kind of rational behavior in my life.

From:

gomberg

If anything, in the US it is more expensive not to gain weight than to gain it. Bread and sweets do not cost much.

I am overweight and would never be seen near an exercise tracking device. I rationally choose this. And, BTW, I doubt it increases my lifetime chances of suffering from a severe medical crisis that would exhaust my savings. True, I might suffer such crisis earlier - well, that, if anything, helps my retirement planning, as there would be less (in expectation) to plan for. But everybody, eventually, dies and nobody has, yet, died from perfect health (I will disregard, if you do not mind, the possibility of rapture). The fact that most people prefer not to think about it does not make it any less true.

From:

timelets

Maybe the weight thing is more about signaling than actual heath. I've never been to Latin America, but in the US when you go to college campuses you can see a big difference in student demeanor between elite and second-tier universities. On elite campuses students seem to show off their fitness level. Clothing and cars used to be the signaling mechanism, but now it's not cool, especially, among liberals, so people find other ways to signal class status (which is an improvement, I must say).

From:

gomberg

Sure, my students are half the girth of an average guy on the street (though, at least partially, it would be a racial difference). I choose not to signal anything that way - I like my pastries and hate vegetables. And I have never cared about being cool - not even when I was a teenager.

And I have no doubt about health impact (I am a son of a doctor). I know, I will likely die earlier than if I ate salads. All I am saying is that it does not change my probability (and expense) of, actually, dying.

Edited Date: 2019-01-25 02:01 am (UTC)

From:

timelets

I'm lucky because I don't have a strong preference for pastry and love my vegetables, esp. in the form of salsa :) In any case, nowadays, living too long could be a problem too. As a result, people tend to focus on quality vs quantity (longevity) of life. Demographic trends coupled with budget deficits are going to be a major economic factor down the road.

Does Mexico have a Social Security system like the US or people rely on their own savings/pensions in retirement?

From:

gomberg

I understand about the quality. But one should include not merely the high-quality years, but also the low quality period thereafter. I would give up a few years of good-quality life not to then go slowly and torturously. I do not want to suffer.

Mexico has a complicated mixture. Those outside of the formal sector, really, have had no pension at all (though in recent years very small old-age pension has been introduced and is being expanded by the new government, but even that it is on the order of 100 USD/month after the age of 70). As for those employed in formal sector, there is a combination of various social security schemes: one for public-sector employees, another for formal private sector, with different systems for those who started working before and after 1997. For those, like me, in private sector, who started working in Mexico after 1997, it is an individual account - I can choose with which of the private funds to invest my mandatory contributions. If I am lucky and there is not much inflation and no confiscatory reform within the next 20 years, I will, probably, have about 1000 USD/month from that when I retire, or a bit less. However, I would not count on that. But my (private) university has another (defined benefit) pension plan in addition - alas, if I leave before I turn 60, I get nothing, but I would be modestly ok if I stay till then.

The good thing is, I am far older than the largest generation in this country. Labor should remain cheap well into my senile years. Hopefully, even a modest income would be enough to hire help.

From:

timelets

Low-quality years are the scariest and most people have no good answer for that, except suicide, hopefully, assisted.

On a brighter note, the size of the new generation and inflation seem to be major factors in Mexico. We have a somewhat opposite situation in the US: competition for caregivers (2040) and low inflation in the foreseeable future. Importing labor from Mexico would make a lot of economic sense, but there's a lot of political pubshback against this solution. Maybe people will be come more pragmatic when we start approaching Medicare/Medicaid bankruptcy. Or maybe we all learn Spanish and move somewhere in Puerto Vallarta :)

Speaking of Puerto Vallarta, what I know as salsa is a recipe a local taught me few years ago when I visited. He said, salsa is like Mexican flag: red tomatoes, white onions, and green cilantro. Most of the time I add various peppers and avocado, but that's pretty much it. I guess, guacamole is a "mole", although I've never ventured to make it.

From:

gomberg

Actually, guacamole is definitely a salsa and not a mole :) No nuts/seeds, no chocolate, you do not make it into a powder/paste to disolve in a consome before using. Fresh vegetables - that is a salsa.

Yeah, assuming we are still stable down here, retiring in Mexico is a possibility. But you would not be able to buy a house in PV - too close to the sea, constitutionally reserved for us Mexicans. You could, of course, create a trust and make yourself its beneficiary. Or else, you could go to one of the inland gringotepecs (say, Ajijic or San Miguel Allende). If you do so, you would not even have to learn Spanish.

From:

timelets

Here we should hope and pray for stability and prosperity in Mexico because if the situation worsens no wall is going to stop the young generation from seeking a better life in the US. Frankly, I don't follow events in Latin America that much. Brazil used to be a bright spot, both politically and economically; then, everything deteriorated and they got a new authoritarian president. Who knows. I'm not even sure the term Latin America is even relevant any more, except that most of people there speak some kind of Spanish :) The entire region is in perpetual funk: sometimes better, sometimes worse.

From:

gomberg

I wouldn't say that the region is in perpetual funk. If anything, there has been a tremendous progress over the years. But this is not the best moment (where is it?). Both Brazil and Mexico have just elected illiberal presidents: it is not likely to be pretty in either, and these are the two largest countries. And, alas, you guys are not helping: having Trump in power in the US reduces the opportunity cost of being stupid down here. And, alas, it seems some of our politicians are taking that as an invitation.

And a word of caution: all Latin American countries are very different.

From:

gomberg

As for the other thing... One of my grandfathers would say: "мое плохое сердце не даст мне страдать". And he was right: he died fairly early (at 74), he had been a sick man for years before that, but he was never helpless. My other granfather lived to be 91... He had a very strong heart, it would not let him go. He had been in perfect health, not even using an elevator in his building till he was 84, and somehow compensating for a couple years after that, but I would give a lot not to have his last few years. He did not deserve to go like that - it was cruel.

From:

timelets

I don't know about Mexico, but in the US heart diseases and even cancer are in broad retreat. Heredity is a factor, but prevention and lifestyle changes are much stronger components of the overall longevity picture. Based on your socio-economic status situation, I wouldn't count on a quick death from a heart attack :)

My grandfather lived until 91, with his last five years dragging out quite miserably for him and his children. If I had an option, I would commit to a hard stop at 80, as long as it does not bring moral hardship to my family. But it's easy to say now...

Btw, did you see "Truman"? https://www.imdb.com/title/tt3754940/ One of the few movies that try to deal with the problem honestly and compassionately.

From:

gomberg

"Salsa" merely means "sauce" in Spanish. I, kind of, conjecture which salsa you have in mind, but one should be more specific :)

Confusingly, there is also something called (in Mexican Spanish) "mole". In English it would also be called "sauce", though no Mexican would ever call a mole a salsa. I much prefer moles. Alas, these tend to be chocolate-based (though quite spicy).