Impeachment

[timelets]

What would be the probability of Trump being impeached during his first or second term?

We need three components:
1. A major blunder or public offense.
2. A major exposure of the blunder or the offense, so that the Congress can't ignore it.
3. The Congress (House) has the votes to appoint a special prosecutor and impeach. Maybe I should split this item it into two separate ones.

#2 is the easiest because Trump has antagonized the press, the intelligence agencies, and will have antagonized government workers. Therefore, we can set the probability at 100%.

#1 is a bit harder because, in general, it's difficult for a US president to commit an impeachable offense. I'd put it at 10% for now.

#3 is even harder because the House will be controlled by the Republicans during Trump's first term, or at least until 2018. Therefore, the question becomes: a) what's the probability of the Democrats taking over the House in 2018? b) what's the probability of Trump being re-elected in 2020? c) what's the probability of the Democrats taking over the House in 2020?

So far, Trump's impeachment looks highly unlikely.

Comments

[tijd]

#1: 100%.

If Trump deliberately declines to cure his continuing violation of the emoluments clause upon entering office, Congress has both power and responsibility to enforce the constitution. It would be well within its rights to impeach and remove him for engaging in “high crimes and misdemeanors”.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/dec/19/donald-trump-violate-us-constitution-inauguration-day

(The author is the top expert in the country, the author of the standard textbook "American Constitutional Law".)

[timelets]

An interesting article - thanks! I'd put it at 50% for now, just because it's a one-sided argument. We need to hear some arguments against this POW.