Impeachment
Jan. 4th, 2017 10:32 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
timeletsWhat would be the probability of Trump being impeached during his first or second term?
We need three components:
1. A major blunder or public offense.
2. A major exposure of the blunder or the offense, so that the Congress can't ignore it.
3. The Congress (House) has the votes to appoint a special prosecutor and impeach. Maybe I should split this item it into two separate ones.
#2 is the easiest because Trump has antagonized the press, the intelligence agencies, and will have antagonized government workers. Therefore, we can set the probability at 100%.
#1 is a bit harder because, in general, it's difficult for a US president to commit an impeachable offense. I'd put it at 10% for now.
#3 is even harder because the House will be controlled by the Republicans during Trump's first term, or at least until 2018. Therefore, the question becomes: a) what's the probability of the Democrats taking over the House in 2018? b) what's the probability of Trump being re-elected in 2020? c) what's the probability of the Democrats taking over the House in 2020?
So far, Trump's impeachment looks highly unlikely.
We need three components:
1. A major blunder or public offense.
2. A major exposure of the blunder or the offense, so that the Congress can't ignore it.
3. The Congress (House) has the votes to appoint a special prosecutor and impeach. Maybe I should split this item it into two separate ones.
#2 is the easiest because Trump has antagonized the press, the intelligence agencies, and will have antagonized government workers. Therefore, we can set the probability at 100%.
#1 is a bit harder because, in general, it's difficult for a US president to commit an impeachable offense. I'd put it at 10% for now.
#3 is even harder because the House will be controlled by the Republicans during Trump's first term, or at least until 2018. Therefore, the question becomes: a) what's the probability of the Democrats taking over the House in 2018? b) what's the probability of Trump being re-elected in 2020? c) what's the probability of the Democrats taking over the House in 2020?
So far, Trump's impeachment looks highly unlikely.
