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Oct. 13th, 2016 09:57 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
timeletsIt appears that Trump supporters, including Trump himself, bet heavily on the email server scandal*. Then, when the bet didn't pan out they started blaming everybody and everything, instead of rethinking their betting strategy.
By contrast, Mitt Romney in his March 3 speech focused on Trump's chances to win independently of the scandal. He based his calculations on Trump's own credibility holes and concluded that the holes, e.g. the tax return, represented a greater risk. Romney's evaluation turned out to be correct.
I think this is the most important lesson of the 2016 presidential campaign: one has to diversify political risks the same way portfolio managers diversify investment risks.
* Democratic primaries showed that the scandal was a non-factor. At the time, it would be rational to adjust expectations accordingly.
By contrast, Mitt Romney in his March 3 speech focused on Trump's chances to win independently of the scandal. He based his calculations on Trump's own credibility holes and concluded that the holes, e.g. the tax return, represented a greater risk. Romney's evaluation turned out to be correct.
I think this is the most important lesson of the 2016 presidential campaign: one has to diversify political risks the same way portfolio managers diversify investment risks.
* Democratic primaries showed that the scandal was a non-factor. At the time, it would be rational to adjust expectations accordingly.
