Хунта лучше чем Хуйло

[timelets]

Based on historical analysis of autocratic regimes from 1946 to 1996, we can estimate that the probability of a democratic post-Putin regime is lower than if Russia were governed today by a military junta. *


In general, it appears that autocrats are more likely to adapt democratic institutions to support the regime, rather than the other way around.

The authors argue that when authoritarian rulers need to solicit the cooperation of outsiders or deter the threat of rebellion, they rely on political institutions. Partisan legislatures incorporate potential opposition forces, giving them a stake in the ruler’s survival. By broadening the basis of support for autocrats, these institutions lengthen their tenures. An analysis of all authoritarian rulers in power during the 1946-1996 period provides evidence of the effect of nominally democratic institutions on their political survival.*

To summarize, it is highly unlikely that Russia will become a democracy in our lifetime. In contrast, Ukraine is moving in the right direction, albeit through fits and starts.

upd. Should "бессмертный полк" become institutionalized it'll help entrench the khuilo.

* Gandhi, Jennifer, and Adam Przeworski. "Authoritarian institutions and the survival of autocrats." Comparative Political Studies (2007). http://cps.sagepub.com/content/40/11/1279