TIL: (Bad Mood x Prior Exposure to Trolls) -> Trolling

Through an experiment simulating an online discussion, we find that both negative mood and seeing troll posts by others significantly increases the probability of a user trolling, and together double this probability.

A predictive model of trolling behavior shows that mood and discussion context together can explain trolling behavior better than an individual’s history of trolling. These results combine to suggest that ordinary people can, under the right circumstances, behave like trolls.


Cheng J, Bernstein M, Danescu-Niculescu-Mizil C, Leskovec J. Anyone Can Become a Troll: Causes of Trolling Behavior in Online Discussions. CSCW Conf Comput Support Coop Work. 2017;2017:1217-1230.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5791909/

As it says in Psalms 1, "Happy is the man that hath not walked in the counsel of the wicked,
nor stood in the way of sinners, nor sat in the seat of the scornful."

(no subject)

“...Japan, Korea, Taiwan and China perfected ways to marry subsidies and protection for manufacturers – so as to nurture their development – with competition and ‘export discipline’, which forced them to sell their products internationally and thereby become globally competitive. This overcame the traditional problem with subsidy and protection policies, whereby entrepreneurs pocketed financial incentives but failed to do the hard work of producing competitive products. Firms were not able to hide behind tariff and other barriers and sell only to a protected domestic market because protection, subsidies and credit were conditioned on export growth. Firms that did not meet the export benchmark were cut off from state largesse, forced to merge with more successful companies, or occasionally even bankrupted.”

Joe Studwell. “How Asia Works.”

- On the one hand, you want to subsidize(finance) and protect promising unprofitable companies, so that they overcome the initial biz/tech handicap;
- On the other hand, you don't want to subsidize and protect unprofitable companies, so that they grow inefficient and require either direct or indirect subsidies/tariffs.

This dilemma is inherent in startups as well, and it's addressed through a similar (isomorphic!) VC solution. It also helps understand what enabled Amazon to solve the Innovator's Dilemma.

BTW, it shows that Russian industrial policy is doomed because of sanctions imposed on the country due to Putin's stupid foreign policy.