Natural experiment: results

Outline of the experiment:
https://timelets.dreamwidth.org/883301.html
Lucky for me, the number of comments >100 and the number of participants >20.

Relevant links:
1) https://www.lawfareblog.com/pretrial-detention-hearing-summary-united-states-v-butina
2) https://www.lawfareblog.com/no-mariia-butina-wasnt-charged-violating-fara

My ex ante estimate for attempts to provide a non-biased answer - 5%. Null hypothesis - 33% (equally distributed bias for; against; neutral).

Results:
Number of unique participants - 21;
Attempts at a non-biased legal answer - 1.
Actual probability = 4.7%

Outcome:
As predicted, in a politicized journal politically neutral relevant answers are rare and overwhelmingly rejected. An instance of Danning-Kruger effect confirmed.

(no subject)

A good introductory book on Category Theory:

F.W. Lawvere & S.H. Schanuel, A first introduction to categories, 2009. Cambridge Univ. Press.

The book has many easy to understand examples, based on sets. I haven't gotten that far to see whether the set-based approach is a limiting or enabling constraint.