Natural experiment: results
Jul. 29th, 2018 02:25 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
timeletsOutline of the experiment:
https://timelets.dreamwidth.org/883301.html
Lucky for me, the number of comments >100 and the number of participants >20.
Relevant links:
1) https://www.lawfareblog.com/pretrial-detention-hearing-summary-united-states-v-butina
2) https://www.lawfareblog.com/no-mariia-butina-wasnt-charged-violating-fara
My ex ante estimate for attempts to provide a non-biased answer - 5%. Null hypothesis - 33% (equally distributed bias for; against; neutral).
Results:
Number of unique participants - 21;
Attempts at a non-biased legal answer - 1.
Actual probability = 4.7%
Outcome:
As predicted, in a politicized journal politically neutral relevant answers are rare and overwhelmingly rejected. An instance of Danning-Kruger effect confirmed.
https://timelets.dreamwidth.org/883301.html
Lucky for me, the number of comments >100 and the number of participants >20.
Relevant links:
1) https://www.lawfareblog.com/pretrial-detention-hearing-summary-united-states-v-butina
2) https://www.lawfareblog.com/no-mariia-butina-wasnt-charged-violating-fara
My ex ante estimate for attempts to provide a non-biased answer - 5%. Null hypothesis - 33% (equally distributed bias for; against; neutral).
Results:
Number of unique participants - 21;
Attempts at a non-biased legal answer - 1.
Actual probability = 4.7%
Outcome:
As predicted, in a politicized journal politically neutral relevant answers are rare and overwhelmingly rejected. An instance of Danning-Kruger effect confirmed.
