Jan. 3rd, 2016

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Это тоже интересная задачка для точной формулировки вопроса и определения вероятности события.
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Because we [economics] are not an experimental science, we face difficult problems of inference. The same data generally are subject to multiple interpretations. It is not that we learn nothing from data, but that we have at best the ability to use data to narrow the range of substantive disagreement. We are always combining the objective information in the data with judgment, opinion and/or prejudice to reach conclusions. http://sims.princeton.edu/yftp/AngristPischkeJEP/AngristPischkeComment.pdf

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