Is Putin the next Gaddafi?
Jul. 1st, 2015 04:49 pmLet's say the Dutch prove that a Russian BUK crew shot down MH17. Obviously, there will be a trial, which will take at least a couple of years to complete. Overall, the investigation and the trial are going to take — roughly — 5 years. It will probably take another couple of years to negotiate extradition of the guilty party; all of it to no avail because Putin refuses to give up his henchmen on constitutional grounds.
Question: will Europe be in a position to impose oil and gas embargo on Russia in 2022-3? This is unlikely, but the pressure may be sufficient enough to kick Putin out of the 2024 presidential elections cycle. Then what? I'd venture to say that Putin will transfer his power to one of his KGB stooges who is also involved in sponsoring the war in Ukraine today and, by association, guilty of the downing of MH17. Unless the преемник sells out to the West, Russia's going to find itself in a situation somewhere in between Iran and Libya.
The outcome of the Litvinenko trial this year is going to be an interesting indicator of where things might go with the MH17 inquiry.
Question: will Europe be in a position to impose oil and gas embargo on Russia in 2022-3? This is unlikely, but the pressure may be sufficient enough to kick Putin out of the 2024 presidential elections cycle. Then what? I'd venture to say that Putin will transfer his power to one of his KGB stooges who is also involved in sponsoring the war in Ukraine today and, by association, guilty of the downing of MH17. Unless the преемник sells out to the West, Russia's going to find itself in a situation somewhere in between Iran and Libya.
The outcome of the Litvinenko trial this year is going to be an interesting indicator of where things might go with the MH17 inquiry.