Mar. 10th, 2014

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When it comes to the Crimea issue, out of three Hirschman strategies — voice, exit, and loyalty — only the latter two are available to the Russian public. The decision-making process takes place behind the Kremlin's closed doors and we can't even be sure who, besides Putin and his closest friends, has influence over the decision. The public can argue (either for or against the annexation of Crimea) as much as they want but it will not have any effect on the outcome. Therefore, rational arguments become useless and the discussion deteriorates into largely emotional outbursts against the opponent. Thus, being rational on a great, internationally important issue is irrational for a Russian citizen loyal to his/her country.

Under the circumstances, it's easy to predict that this year's Victory Day (9 мая, День Победы) in Russia will become another milestone in dividing the society along loyalty lines. Those who disagree with the official position on Crimea and Ukraine will be branded traitors, who among many other anti-government sins have betrayed the memory of their Russian ancestors. The celebration of one of the greatest collective achievements in the country's history is likely to further divide, rather than unite the nation.

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