(no subject)

[timelets]

Well, it looks like the Swedish experiment in COVID-19 herd immunity didn't work out. Most likely, the virus is not subject to short-term natural herd immunity, i.e. it's closer to seasonal flu than, let's say, pox.

Comments

[dmm]

It's not about death, it's about illness being light enough that the carrier does not take precautions not to spread it further (of course, if the illness is severe, even the mobility is limited, so even less spread). This selects those mutations which make the illness milder among all mutations which are going on all the time, so milder varieties gradually saturate (assuming cross-immunity).

(Note that the actual number of cases is probably about 7 times larger than what is recorded, at least in states like MA, if we assume that the Spring observations are still valid; so 6 out of 7 infected people are not tested/diagnosed).

[timelets]

... gradually ... (assuming cross-immunity).

This winter season will show how the virus behaves through one yearly cycle. Before that, it would be premature to make epidemiological decisions based on assumptions about frequency and impact of mutations.

[dmm]

True...

***

I think we should take it as seriously as before for the time being.

Even if the Spring death rate of about 1% of "actual infections" (all infections, not just the recorded ones), dropped to what seemed to be about 0.3% in the Summer and to seemingly about 0.1% now, it's still way too much to just "let this thing be" (especially given long-term complications).

[timelets]

I'm even more concerned with hospitalizations because they are much more frequent and costly than deaths. BTW, one "learning-by-doing" difference in treatment between last spring and now is a dramatic reduction in in-hospital virus transmissions. Both medical staff and [non-COVID] patients learned how to wear PPE, masks, etc. Although it's not rocket science, it's very effective against the virus, especially in close quarters.