(no subject)

[timelets]

Well, it looks like the Swedish experiment in COVID-19 herd immunity didn't work out. Most likely, the virus is not subject to short-term natural herd immunity, i.e. it's closer to seasonal flu than, let's say, pox.

Comments

[dmm]

(What I do see however is that it's not due to better testing; in Massachusetts the same levels of detected cases corresponds to the same level of virus detected in sewage - we have a project measuring that.

So I conclude from that that we do not detect a larger fraction of cases than before (I am not sure why).)

[dmm]

Oops, they've just revised the sewage level data, changed the methodology and recomputed everything:

http://www.mwra.com/biobot/biobotdata.htm

The November peak was as high as Spring peak on this graph before they did that.

***

So, if one believes this new curve, and not the old curve, then: the test coverage has improved, so there is less actual Covid cases now compared to Spring (at least, in Massachusetts, where the peaks of confirmed cases are equal now and back then), but its lethality is (therefore) not dropping as fast as I thought...

Boy, do I hate that one can't trust the data out there...