If you really think the probability of Trump dying this year is zero (which follows from your initial statement), then the bet you offered is unfair. You should be able to bet $1,000,000 to $0.01 and still expect to make money.
The point of this exchange is not to shut you up. If we were narrow versions of a human computer, arriving at some number — 100, 3, 0.03/365, etc — might be enough. When people, especially business people, estimate odds, they do it for the sake of evaluating and managing risks associated with a particular [type of] transaction. Moreover, while managing risks, they try to eliminate rather than multiply uncertainty. In our case, if we were to bet on Trump's claim about the coronavirus, the assumption of him being alive would be written into a contract, rather than left hanging out there and clouding an already uncertain picture. And while you are bringing a valid point that he must still be alive, it's _managed_ into irrelevancy in the context of the underlying transaction.
Furthermore, my offer to you to bet $100 vs $3 on him being alive on Jan 1, 2021, is unfair to me, not to you. That is because when business people make deals in the real world they have to take into account relevant costs, e.g. transaction costs, opportunity costs, reputation costs. My upside on the bet is $3, which doesn't cover my opportunity costs at all. If you wanted to punish me for being a closed-minded liberal living in an echo chamber, you would've taken it any time. But I guess you are a kind person who doesn't want to inflict financial harm on people because of their political views.
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timelets
no subject
Date: 2020-02-02 12:49 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2020-02-02 01:33 am (UTC)Just to make sure: I’m not asking you for an advice on what I should or should not do. I’m offering you a bet.
no subject
Date: 2020-02-02 01:44 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2020-02-02 04:56 am (UTC)Furthermore, my offer to you to bet $100 vs $3 on him being alive on Jan 1, 2021, is unfair to me, not to you. That is because when business people make deals in the real world they have to take into account relevant costs, e.g. transaction costs, opportunity costs, reputation costs. My upside on the bet is $3, which doesn't cover my opportunity costs at all. If you wanted to punish me for being a closed-minded liberal living in an echo chamber, you would've taken it any time. But I guess you are a kind person who doesn't want to inflict financial harm on people because of their political views.