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Aug. 25th, 2014 02:42 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
timeletsFor Putin, the marginal cost of supporting the war in the Donbass region is much lower than the marginal benefit from the same.
- on costs: Russia has lots of military, industrial, and economic resources;
- on benefits: see "русская мечта и русский ужас" http://belan.livejournal.com/178173.html
Putin has incentives to at least maintain the current level of the war.
For Poroshenko, the marginal cost of supporting the war is higher than the marginal benefit from the same.
- on costs: Ukraine's resources are quite limited;
- on benefits: the public is already united around the current government.
Poroshenko has incentives to stop the war.
Putin is in a stronger position than Poroshenko b/c the former has the pricing power in the conflict.
One way to raise costs for Putin would be to increase western sanctions (i.e. domestic pressure)
Another way - inflict a decisive blow to the separatists, while severing their connection to Russia.
Yet another way - give up the Donbass region, but prevent Putin's expansion beyond it.
???
The third option is the least bloody one, but it will require certain peace guarantees on the Putin's side. The question is whether the other party is going to trust Putin's guarantees. I wouldn't.
The first option could work, but the west is not going to use it.
Most likely, we are stuck in option 2, which is continuation of the war.
- on costs: Russia has lots of military, industrial, and economic resources;
- on benefits: see "русская мечта и русский ужас" http://belan.livejournal.com/178173.html
Putin has incentives to at least maintain the current level of the war.
For Poroshenko, the marginal cost of supporting the war is higher than the marginal benefit from the same.
- on costs: Ukraine's resources are quite limited;
- on benefits: the public is already united around the current government.
Poroshenko has incentives to stop the war.
Putin is in a stronger position than Poroshenko b/c the former has the pricing power in the conflict.
One way to raise costs for Putin would be to increase western sanctions (i.e. domestic pressure)
Another way - inflict a decisive blow to the separatists, while severing their connection to Russia.
Yet another way - give up the Donbass region, but prevent Putin's expansion beyond it.
???
The third option is the least bloody one, but it will require certain peace guarantees on the Putin's side. The question is whether the other party is going to trust Putin's guarantees. I wouldn't.
The first option could work, but the west is not going to use it.
Most likely, we are stuck in option 2, which is continuation of the war.
