Individual-1

[timelets]

Let's say, Covfefe loses 2020 elections. Will he pardon himself to prevent pending prosecution? Or will he resign, so that Pence pardons him?

Comments

[juan_gandhi]

he has no reason to trust Pence, I think.

[timelets]

You can make transactions without trust. For example, he can have Pence sign papers prior to resigning.

[gracheeha]

Он забаррикадируется в Белом Доме и будет кричать, что выборы были совершенно нечестными!

[timelets]

Он будет кричать, что выборы были нечестными в любом случае :) Если выиграет, то "несмотря на", а если проиграет, то "из-за."

[ecreet]

I agree, he will claim that that not electing him is an illegal power grab by the Democrats, and incite his armed supporters to violence.

In fact, the claim has already been made: https://twitter.com/AdamSerwer/status/1187773046658076672 (the quote is from Mollie Hemingway's article in The Federalist, where she is a "senior editor". I don't want to give them traffic).

[timelets]

He will incite something for sure. And quite likely there will be some nuthead who'll do something violently stupid. But I bet that there will be no pro–Trump armed rebellion in 2020, even on the scale of Baltimore riots.

[ecreet]

By November 2020 that quote will be common knowledge among the right wing media and its consumers: a Democratic candidate winning the election equals a coup. The logical development would be for Trump to declare that the election has been subverted and is therefore void, and become a de-facto dictator backed by the army, the National Guard, and the police. This would be presented by everybody (including NYTimes) as very legitimate measures taken to protect the country. The only thing that makes me doubt this scenario is that I suppose (and hope) Trump has pissed off the military enough that they wouldn't go this far to protect him. In this case, we will probably not see an organized rebellion, but a spike in mass shootings and a lot of obstruction and sabotage.

[timelets]

Not going to happen. American people, including the military, know that the body that makes decisions about validity of elections is the Supreme Court. It's quite possible that Trump will sue, though. That's what he does every time he loses or about to lose.

[ecreet]

Oh, on that I am 146% sure the current Supreme Court will find a reason if not to declare the elections invalid, then to withhold their judgement. After all, there is partisan politics happening, and they cannot go near partisan politics (as we see from their decision about gerrymandering).

[timelets]

Then, it'll be decided by district courts, which is even simpler. He'll make a lot of noise — nasty, obnoxious, etc — but nothing would come out of it. There will be no Trump rebellion because the country is old and, more importantly, his supporters are old.

[ecreet]

Tl;dr: I think we are further down the drain than you think.

[dmm]

This is why there are active state investigations, where there is no Federal power of pardon, e.g. in New York State...

[timelets]

I think in state investigations he can get away by paying fines, instead of going to jail.

[dmm]

Depends on how hard they dig (what about state tax fraud, for example)...

[timelets]

Most likely there will be a deal to give him some leniency if he goes away quietly. Rudy G. would be a good indicator of things to come.

[dmm]

Actually, his best bet might be insanity defense ;-)

Some 25th amendment proceedings might be a good way to start a path in that direction...

[timelets]

This is not going to happen though.

[malobukov]

There will be no point in prosecuting Trump after he loses 2020 elections.

[timelets]

Why? He won't commit suicide if he loses.

[malobukov]

Because he won't have any political power. He could still fire managers of his golf courses or hotels, but that's hardly a problem that requires government intervention.

[timelets]

What if he committed tax fraud?

[malobukov]

No different from anyone else committing tax fraud.