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May. 14th, 2014 05:16 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
timeletsLet's run another thought experiment and imagine an American president who could make a credible deal with Putin. What kind of political power s/he should have and what kind of circumstances the country should be in?
1. The president should have an overwhelming public mandate to get the deal through the Congress.
2. The president should present a compelling case to Nato; particularly, to the Central European countries and Baltic states.
3. The president should be willing to expend his political power on Russia, as opposed to some other national or international issue (opportunity cost).
What would that be? Economy, Military conflict, Terrorism or something else?
Economy-wise, Russia is not a major player. China or SE Asia would be a better candidate for investing one's political capital.
Militarily, Russia is a nuclear power, although, she is not strong enough to force the kind of a sweet deal Putin wants on Crimea.
Terrorism might become a serious issue, if Putin starts arming MidEast and African crazies with nuclear technology. I doubt that would happen; but should that happen, I doubt the president would try to accommodate Putin. To the contrary, the president would prefer to look strong, resisting blackmail, rather than succumbing to it.
Anything else?
To summarize, unless something extraordinary happens, I don't see any rational American president making a personal deal with Putin.
1. The president should have an overwhelming public mandate to get the deal through the Congress.
2. The president should present a compelling case to Nato; particularly, to the Central European countries and Baltic states.
3. The president should be willing to expend his political power on Russia, as opposed to some other national or international issue (opportunity cost).
What would that be? Economy, Military conflict, Terrorism or something else?
Economy-wise, Russia is not a major player. China or SE Asia would be a better candidate for investing one's political capital.
Militarily, Russia is a nuclear power, although, she is not strong enough to force the kind of a sweet deal Putin wants on Crimea.
Terrorism might become a serious issue, if Putin starts arming MidEast and African crazies with nuclear technology. I doubt that would happen; but should that happen, I doubt the president would try to accommodate Putin. To the contrary, the president would prefer to look strong, resisting blackmail, rather than succumbing to it.
Anything else?
To summarize, unless something extraordinary happens, I don't see any rational American president making a personal deal with Putin.
