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May. 13th, 2014 09:51 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
timeletsLet's run a thought experiment and imagine for a moment that a reformer of the Deng Xiaoping caliber appears in the Russian-speaking world. In which country he's more likely to succeed: Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, or Belarus?
I'd say Ukraine, followed by Kazakhstan, are our best candidates. Why? Because for a new reform-minded autocratic leader to emerge you need a certain level turmoil in the country, accompanied by a dramatic shift in priorities, e.g. from ideology to economy.
Obviously, this won't happen in Russia or Belarus because their leaders are deeply entrenched in power. Preserving the power, not creating new economic prosperity, is their first priority.
On the other hand, Ukraine is going through a lot of turmoil right now, but they are in a desperate need for economic reforms. Otherwise, they will be stuck in the seesaw pattern of power struggle that hobbled the country for the last 20+ years. Luckily, they do understand their situation and maybe willing to act on the opportunity. Russian political and military pressure adds to the urgency. Kazakhstan also has a good chance, but only after Nazarbayev leaves the office.
I'd say Ukraine, followed by Kazakhstan, are our best candidates. Why? Because for a new reform-minded autocratic leader to emerge you need a certain level turmoil in the country, accompanied by a dramatic shift in priorities, e.g. from ideology to economy.
Obviously, this won't happen in Russia or Belarus because their leaders are deeply entrenched in power. Preserving the power, not creating new economic prosperity, is their first priority.
On the other hand, Ukraine is going through a lot of turmoil right now, but they are in a desperate need for economic reforms. Otherwise, they will be stuck in the seesaw pattern of power struggle that hobbled the country for the last 20+ years. Luckily, they do understand their situation and maybe willing to act on the opportunity. Russian political and military pressure adds to the urgency. Kazakhstan also has a good chance, but only after Nazarbayev leaves the office.
