(no subject)
Apr. 17th, 2014 04:11 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
timeletsTime to retrace the trajectories outlined earlier this week. It appears that we are branching into (1), with higher probabilities for 1.1. and, especially, 1.4. Amazingly, the situation is developing close to an outcome optimal for all parties, which means the key players are acting rationally.
With economic goals in mind, if I played for Russia I would try to avoid 1.3 and make sure Germany (and the US!) becomes responsible for Ukraine's gas bills. Ultimately, a stable, democratic, anti-corruption government in Ukraine would benefit all the parties involved in the conflict, except pro-Yanukovich groups in the East.
With economic goals in mind, if I played for Russia I would try to avoid 1.3 and make sure Germany (and the US!) becomes responsible for Ukraine's gas bills. Ultimately, a stable, democratic, anti-corruption government in Ukraine would benefit all the parties involved in the conflict, except pro-Yanukovich groups in the East.
