And the winners are...

What started as a tongue-in-cheek observation that “Trump always chickens out” has become a consistently profitable pattern. It works especially well when there’s a specific deadline like Tuesday night’s Strait of Hormuz ultimatum since there’s less danger of being right but getting the timing wrong.

Over the 300-plus trading sessions since Trump took the oath of office last year, nine of the S&P 500’s 10 biggest gains have had to do with relief over tariffs or Iran. Owning stocks on just those days would have earned an investor 52% on their money compared with 12% for buying and holding an index fund throughout. Wednesday’s cease-fire rally might crack the top six.

https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/iran-bounce-these-tacos-are-getting-stale-1f69dd3a

Also of interest:

A Trump insider opened a $51,000,000 oil short position — hours before Trump announced a ceasefire with Iran. This guy is now 16 for 16. $170 million in profit. A perfect streak.

"We placed the bet." "The ceasefire dropped." "We cashed out." Sixteen times in a row.
https://x.com/JamesTate121/status/2041908860576002256