(no subject)

In the end an edifice of knowledge was erected that nobody had really foreseen or intended. Indeed, it stood in opposition to the anticipations and intentions of the individuals who had helped build it. For Wassermann and his co-workers shared a fate in common with Columbus. They were searching for their own "India" and were convinced that they were on the right course, but they unexpectedly discovered a new "America.
...
What they achieved was not even their goal. They wanted evidence for an antigen or an amboceptor. Instead, they fulfilled the ancient wish of the collective: the demonstration of syphilitic blood.

--- Ludwik Fleck, Genesis and Development of a Scientific Fact.

Quote of the Day: the four horses of feeblemindedness

Deficiency of understanding we call stupidity: deficiency in the application of reason to practice we shall recognise later as foolishness: deficiency of judgment as silliness, and lastly, partial or entire deficiency of memory as madness.


-- Arthur Schopenhauer, The World As Will And Idea.
https://www.gutenberg.org/cache/epub/38427/pg38427-images.html

(no subject)

How would we approach calculating the probability of destruction of Hamas in Gaza until, let's say, the end of 2024?