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1. [perception] Data (causal efficacy).
2. Possibilities.
3. Decision

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Make Ukraine Putin-proof—and Trump-proof

Short of an explicit treaty that will be hard, but not impossible. America, for instance, has legal commitments that oblige it to provide Israel and Taiwan with the arms they need to defend themselves. The guarantees should cover weapons systems, ammunition, training and support to beef up Ukraine’s own defence industries. The more countries that sign up to them, the more convincing they would become—and the harder they would be to overturn if a Ukraine-sceptic like Donald Trump were elected. After the fighting stops, Western “tripwire” forces could be stationed on Ukrainian soil.

Ukraine’s fear, and Mr Putin’s hope, is that the West will lose focus. Only a successful counter-offensive and credible security pledges can get Russians to realise that Mr Putin’s war is futile—that he will never succeed, but can only fail, or fall.