TIL: Dator's Law

“Any useful statement about the future should appear to be ridiculous.”

(no subject)

The article helps understand what questions to ask to get a quality answer. Procedure seems to be the best bet.

Cognitive Science 26 (2002) 521–562
The misunderstood limits of folk science: an illusion of explanatory depth.
Leonid Rozenblit∗, Frank Keil.

Abstract
People feel they understand complex phenomena with far greater precision, coherence, and depth than they really do; they are subject to an illusion—an illusion of explanatory depth. The illusion is far stronger for explanatory knowledge than many other kinds of knowledge, such as that for facts, procedures or narratives. The illusion for explanatory knowledge is most robust where the environment supports real-time explanations with visible mechanisms.

One conclusion that can be drawn from this research is that the well-established blanket approach to overconfidence with “general knowledge” is almost certainly misleading. Large inter-domain differences in calibration imply that structural properties of knowledge have a powerful impact on the process of knowledge assessment. “General knowledge” is a chimera— a mythological composite creature.

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Естественный эксперимент:

Наше американское хуйло (нах) по-разному реагирует на нарушение санкций против Северной Кореи. Когда появляется сообщение о возможном нарушении Китаем, нах твитит "Caught RED HANDED." Когда появляется сообщение о возможном нарушении Россией, нах молчит.