Quote of the Day: forecasting

“If the forecast said there was a 70% chance of rain and it rains, people think the forecast was right; if it doesn’t rain, they think it was wrong. This simple mistake is extremely common. Even sophisticated thinkers fall for it. In 2012, when the Supreme Court was about to release its long-awaited decision on the constitutionality of Obamacare, prediction markets—markets that let people bet on possible outcomes—pegged the probability of the law being struck down at 75%. When the court upheld the law, the sagacious New York Times reporter David Leonhardt declared that “the market—the wisdom of the crowds—was wrong.”

Philip E. Tetlock. “Superforecasting.”

Time, sex, and money

I searched google scholar for articles on post-election trends, to figure out whether Trump was going to have a "honeymoon" period during the first 100 days of his administration. The answer appears to be "no" (duh).

In the process, I've found some interesting articles on major issues that new couples experience during the first 5 years of marriage. It turns out that resource constraints dominate early family life. First, there's not enough time for each other (given work and social obligations). Second, there's not enough sex (mostly, from the husband's perspective). Third, money is short because of debt and increased family-related consumption.

I wonder whether immigrant Indian families are successful in the US because they are debt-free and have extended family support when they move into the country.

https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-relationships-research/article/change-in-disagreements-about-money-time-and-sex-and-marital-outcomes/6D4B48A49A88D84ADB724AA17F28EA81
http://strongermarriage.org/divorce-remarriage/time-sex-and-money-the-first-five-years-of-marriage

and a cup of coffee

"" (Watch on YouTube)

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It's funny, technology promises (and delivers!) incredible time savings but ends up chewing up everything it saves.

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an opposite of the survivor bias:

...indeed people could scarcely believe that those who had surrendered were of the same stuff as the fallen; and an Athenian ally, who some time after insultingly asked one of the prisoners from the island if those that had fallen were men of honour, received for answer that the atraktos- that is, the arrow- would be worth a great deal if it could tell men of honour from the rest; in allusion to the fact that the killed were those whom the stones and the arrows happened to hit.

--- Thucydides. The History of Peloponnesian War. Book 4.

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David Gelernter on a connection between creativity and emotion:

it's a general observation--that creativity often hinges on inventing new analogies. ... Now, what makes me come up with a new analogy? What allows me to do that? Generally, it's a lower-spectrum kind of thinking, a down-spectrum kind of thinking, in which I'm allowing my emotions to emerge. And, I'm allowing emotional similarity between two memories that are in other respects completely different.
...
Emotion is a tremendously powerful summarizer, abstractor. We can look at a complex scene involving loads of people rushing back and forth because it's Grand Central Station, and noisy announcements on [?] to understand, loudspeakers, and you're being hot and tired, and lots of advertisements, and colorful clothing, and a million other things; and smells, and sounds, and--we can take all that or any kind of complex scene or situation, the scene out your window, the scene on the TV (television) when you turn on the news, or a million other things. And take all those complexities and boil them down to a single emotion: it makes me feel some way.

To me, coproducts feel like the Grand Central Station in Gelernter's description - a mess, with some unknown undercurrents that I may be able to figure out. Continuing with this analogy, products feel like night. That is, a moment in time when (most) everybody and everything find their places: people in their houses, animals in their holes, trains in their depots, etc. The mess turns into a world of neat pairs and triplets. It would be cool to eavesdrop on their dreams and see where they actually want to be. That would show us a potential innovation path.

Another interesting way to use his thought would be to apply the emotional approach in workshops proactively and think about various topics with different emotions.

"TRUMP TARIFFS: President Signs Tariffs On Steel and Aluminium Imports (FNN)" (Watch on YouTube)

"On Getting Creative Ideas" (Watch on YouTube)

Cuban Jazz - Buena Vista Social Club

"13. Nationalism" (Watch on YouTube)