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Jul. 2nd, 2014 10:41 amDuring his first presidential term, Putin focused on creating one kind of public good - "law and order." The good was also beneficial for consolidating Putin's personal power, esp. during the second term. In combination with market reforms introduced by the Eltsin government in the 1990s, the new policy brought back some of the balance b/w production of private and public goods.
At the same time, social and business innovations in China as well as the financial bubble in the US produced an enormous demand for raw materials, which raised prices for Russian exports, e.g. oil and gas, dramatically. As the result, production of private and public goods in Russia was amplified by major world events. That, in turn, allowed Russia to escape the financial crisis of 2008 relatively unscathed.
During his third term, Putin started again with the law and order agenda, which served him well in the beginning of his career. This time, he focused on political suppression ( esp. the new media - see the Navalny case), further consolidation of executive power, and attempts to export his brand of "law and order" to Ukraine. Unfortunately for Russia, the world's growth of the early 2000s is not going to repeat within the next few years. Therefore, the same policies that were a recipe for success in Putin's first term are likely to become a recipe for disaster in his third and forth terms. His efforts to tap directly into China's growth are also late by 10 years.
Although there will be little economic growth in Russia, most of her people will not experience a major decline in living standards due to the country's access to cheap and flexible labor force from Central Asia. Demographics also favor the upcoming generation, which was born in the 1990s. Unless Putin and his friends do something really dumb, he or his proxies will stay in power for another decade.
At the same time, social and business innovations in China as well as the financial bubble in the US produced an enormous demand for raw materials, which raised prices for Russian exports, e.g. oil and gas, dramatically. As the result, production of private and public goods in Russia was amplified by major world events. That, in turn, allowed Russia to escape the financial crisis of 2008 relatively unscathed.
During his third term, Putin started again with the law and order agenda, which served him well in the beginning of his career. This time, he focused on political suppression ( esp. the new media - see the Navalny case), further consolidation of executive power, and attempts to export his brand of "law and order" to Ukraine. Unfortunately for Russia, the world's growth of the early 2000s is not going to repeat within the next few years. Therefore, the same policies that were a recipe for success in Putin's first term are likely to become a recipe for disaster in his third and forth terms. His efforts to tap directly into China's growth are also late by 10 years.
Although there will be little economic growth in Russia, most of her people will not experience a major decline in living standards due to the country's access to cheap and flexible labor force from Central Asia. Demographics also favor the upcoming generation, which was born in the 1990s. Unless Putin and his friends do something really dumb, he or his proxies will stay in power for another decade.
