(no subject)

Ух, какой интересный вариант русского православного мистицизма:

А. Русский народ - это не что-то осязаемое, а скорее образ мыслей,
который сложился за всю нашу историю. Кажется, Достоевский писал,
что русский народ жив до тех пор, пока жива хоть одна настоящая
русская семья (тут я могу неправильно цитировать и вообще путать).
Я больше скажу: даже если вообще таковых не будет, русский народ
всё равно будет. И материализуется, например, через века после.
(Но до таких ужасов пока ещё далеко.)

К этому добавляется советская модель интеллигенции с использованием марксистко-ленинской терминологии:

надстройка всегда чувствует себя
надстройкой - проблема в том, что под
ногами базиса не чувствует. Думает, что
и нет никакого базиса. А он есть !

Носителем "русского народа" является мужик (рабочий или крестьянин), который противостоит человеку, получившему высшее образование (интеллигенция).

Интеллигенция и народ действительно живут разными смыслами -
буквально во всём.

Чья же правда важнее? Конечно, народная (мы без них умрём с голоду,
а они без нас вообще не заметят, что нас нет).

Я встречал похожее мировоззрение в фольклоре китайских и японских крестьян, но там оно носило гораздо более языческий, местный характер. Духи умерших сливались с духами/богами реки или леса и в таком виде влияли, или даже вселялись в живых.

С переселением в город и автоматизацией производства, в том числе и аграрного, это мировоззрение исчезает, потому что люди видят, как роботы заменяют "мужика."

P.S. Заодно видно, как из подобного мистицизма рождается Распутинщина. Верующий человек выбирает носителя "русского народа" (мужика), который становится религиозным духовником.

(no subject)

The implications of the events in Ukraine were duly noted in Singapore:

Because we are a small country, we depend on international law, treaties and agreements and the sanctity of these things, and, if they can just be overridden or ignored, well, then we are in serious trouble.” Ukraine, he points out, had had its territorial integrity guaranteed by an agreement, signed by Britain, the US and Russia.
I ask what he makes of the west’s reaction so far and whether it has been strong enough.
“I don’t think you can do a lot more. I think you should have thought of that before encouraging the demonstrators on the Maidan.” So has the west been irresponsible? “I think some people didn’t think through all the consequences. You can understand the emotional sympathies: they share your values, they want to link up with you ... these are idealistic and enthusiastic revolutionaries, in a way, you think back to Les Mis. But can you take responsibility for the consequences and when it comes to grief, will you be there?” He answers his own question. “You can’t be there, you’ve got so many other interests to protect.”

(no subject)

Let's brainstorm several possible scenarios for Ukraine/Russia developments during the next 6-9 months.
The May 25th elections in Ukraine
1. do happen
2. don't happen

if (1)
1.1. the US and EU recognize the new president, even if the East boycotts the elections;
1.2. Russia doesn't recognize the results and tries to destabilize Ukraine either through
1.2.1 direct annexation of the East, or
1.2.2. formation of a puppet East Ukraine Republic;
1.3. Russia starts a new gas war.
1.4. Russia recognizes the results.


if (2)
2.1. the US and EU help Ukraine set up a new elections date, helping the provisional government consolidate its power.
2.1.1. A new provisional government is formed.
2.1.2. A pro-Western peacekeeping force enters Ukraine or at least some of its parts to ensure the elections.

2.2. Russia choses a confrontation ( East/West Germany scenario)
2.2.1. A Russian peacekeeping force enters Ukraine to ensure the elections in the East.

2.3. Russia chooses cooperation ( Yugoslavia?)
2.3.1. An UN peacekeeping force enters Ukraine to ensure the elections across Ukraine.

Possible outcomes and aux. factors:

Economics
1. No additional sanctions against Russia;
2. Additional sanctions against Russia;
3. Gas war;
4. Cooperation on gas issues;
5. Russia reaches an agreement w/China;
6. Russia doesn't reach an agreement w/China;
7. Russian economy improves;
8. Russian economy dives;
9. Ukraine economy improves;
10. Ukraine economy dives;

== Key indicators to watch
The South Stream approval/rejection
The state of economy in Russia in April, May, etc.
Energy substitution options for Europe ( Nabucco)

Politics
1. Ukrainian forces commit an atrocity
2. Pro-Russian forces commit an atrocity
3. Russia commits a verifiable atrocity in Ukraine
4. China supports Russia
5. China doesn't support Russia
6. Crimea integration is a success
7. Crimea integration is a disaster
8. Russia keeps Crimea
9. Russia withdraws from Crimea
10. Putin is dismissed in an internal pro-Westrn coup


Anything else?

On the first glance, the most attractive scenario is (1) with no new sanctions against Russia and no gas war; with the US, EU, Russia, and Ukraine reaching an agreement on gas prices/volumes.

Is this acceptable to Putin? If Russian economy dives he would need a destabilized Ukraine to maintain internal political consensus, while not subjecting Russia to new sanctions. If Russian economy improves or crashes he might play hardball with a full blown gas war, with or without a military intervention.

I tend to think that Russia will play for time, choosing 1.2.2, signing at least a symbolic agreement with China, avoiding new sanctions and an all-out gas war. Putin is a brilliant tactician but poor strategist. He'll look for an excuse to be provoked or dissed. Ultimately, it all depends on the ability of the new Ukrainian government to produce an economic recovery, while facing Russian pressure.

With all the unknowns, Qatar and China stand to be likely winners in the end. Kazakhstan also stands to gain economically, but it's vulnerable politically due to its large Russian-speaking population.