The Greatest Negotiator of All Time

[timelets]

The breakdown of total U.S. agricultural and related product exports to China over the last 10 years (2016–2025) reveals a distinct rollercoaster pattern: [1, 2]

• 2016: \(20.8\) billion
• 2017: \(19.6\) billion
• 2018: \(9.1\) billion (Dipped sharply due to retaliatory tariffs and trade disputes)
• 2019: \(13.8\) billion
• 2020: \(26.4\) billion (Rebounded following the Phase One Trade Agreement)
• 2021: \(33.0\) billion
• 2022: \(36.4\) billion (All-time high for agricultural prices and resilient demand)
• 2023: \(31.6\) billion
• 2024: \(27.3\) billion (China heavily shifted sourcing toward South America)
• 2025: \(\$8.3\) billion (Deteriorated as the trade dispute ratcheted back up) [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6]

Last year (because of Trump's trade war) US sales of ag products to China fell to the lowest level in more than a decade. Moreover, in 2024 when Biden was the president US sales for 2025 were projected at $25B. Then Trump came in and the actual number for the year was three times lower than the estimate.

Now, the Great Negotiator announced a major achievement of his visit: China promised to buy $17B worth of American ag products. In other words, during Trump's two years (2025-26) China is going to buy as much from the US as it would've bought in one year, had Trump not thrown the tariff tantrum in the first place. A whole year of sales is lost.

Art of the Deal in action!