timelets | (no subject)

I think these old farts will try to capture Iranian islands next weekend because "it's easy", just like the healthcare reform or tariffs.

Exhibit 1:

Trump said: “To be honest with you, my favourite thing is to take the oil in Iran but some stupid people back in the US say: ‘why are you doing that?’ But they’re stupid people.”

Asked about the state of Iranian defence on Kharg Island he said: “I don’t think they have any defence. We could take it very easily.”

https://www.ft.com/content/3bd9fb6c-2985-4d24-b86b-23b7884031f5?syn-25a6b1a6=1

Exhibit 2:

Retired Gen. Frank McKenzie, the former commander of U.S. Central Command (Centcom), said Sunday... some of those islands you could seize and hold.
“First of all, it would be profoundly humiliating for Iran and would give us great weight in negotiations. The second, the example of Kharg Island, which everyone talks about, if you seize Kharg Island, you really can shut down the Iranian oil economy completely. And the beauty of seizing it is, you’re not destroying it,” he said.

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/5806811-mckenzie-us-iran-raids/

As if drones don't exist yet. Humiliating my foot! What if Iran decides to destroy oil and desalination facilities in other Gulf countries in response? We just saw how Ukraine hit Russia's oil shipping infrastructure on the Baltic sea. We just saw how Iran destroyed multiple US planes on a military base in SA. The fucking moron seem to think every ground operation is a just another Venezuela excursion.

Flat | Top-Level Comments Only

Если полезут на Харг, то нефть по 200 за баррель это оптимистичная оценка. Поэтому мне кажется, что скорее полезут на Кешм.
Вывоз урана из Исфахана не кажется реальным (особенно с учётом того, что его там может не быть)

Они вполне могут полезть на Харг, не задумываясь о последствиях. Трамп застрял мозгами в прошлом и повторяет сейчас то же самое, что он говорил 40 лет назад. Вот видео 1987-го, где он агитирует за войну с Ираном, чтобы забрать нефть. https://x.com/Whiplash437/status/2038410203620917538

I suspect this whole “we’ll take the islands” thing is the last bluff before sramp folds, but who knows, of course.

That said, there’s an obvious quid pro quo, a russian tanker making it to Cuba and a few east asian tankers making it through the Hormuz strait. So pujlo is now a party to this conflict.

The Iranians know whether he's bluffing or not because they can compare the real content of their talks with what Trump is saying publicly. Remember a couple of months ago his chief of staff said that Trump reminded her of her alcoholic father who when drunk thought he had the power to do whatever he wanted.
For all intents and purposes, Trump is drunk on Venezuela and he's in a power delirium. There's no one around him who can help him to sober up.