Here it goes again.

[timelets]

TOKYO — President Trump has scaled back U.S. military exercises with South Korea, but that apparently was not enough to satisfy North Korea.
...

Trump canceled Foal Eagle [joint US-South Korea military exercises] last year at the time of his first summit with Kim in Singapore.
...

“It is a violent violation of the joint declarations and statements that North Korea reached with the U.S. and South Korea,” KCNA wrote." This also represents a frontal challenge to the aim and desires of all [Korean] people and the international community for peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula.”

It looks like the Dual Suspension agreement reached in Singapore might come to an end. After the resumption of US military exercises, North Korea started rebuilding its missile launch pads.

How would we calculate the probability that NK conducts a ballistic missile or a nuclear test before the next elections?

"OK Go - Here It Goes Again" (Watch on YouTube)

Comments

Re: Not enough information

[timelets]

Good info. Do you think NK will launch a missile, either ballistic or "space test", before in the next 18 months?

Re: Not enough information

[malobukov]

It’s more likely than not, but nowhere near certain.

Re: Not enough information

[timelets]

Is it highly likely, or just likely?

Re: Not enough information

[malobukov]

Not highly. 60% if you want a point estimate.

Re: Not enough information

[timelets]

Thanks.