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We've reached a different stage in the new cold war between Russia and the West: the West has regained the ability to initiate events.
During the Crimea phase, Putin had the initiative, dictated the pace of events: "зеленые человечки", captured government offices, local militias, the referendum, etc. At the time, various Western leaders called Putin often to get an idea what he wants or intends to do next.
For a month or so he seemed unstoppable. The зеленые человечки started showing up in Eastern Ukraine, although the general population didn't support them en masse. Moreover, the threat of Western sanctions and possible negative economic consequences of Putin's Crimea adventure began sinking in. Finally, some time in mid-April, the Russian anti-Maidan march ground to a halt, which was marked by the Geneva agreements.
From being a military confrontation, the war moved into its political and economic phase, where the West has a stronger position. Economically, Russia is a 2-nd world country at best. The growing threat of economic sanctions and diversification of energy consumption in Europe are going to have a major impact on Russian capital investment. The country's economy is already in stagflation; a further escalation in Ukraine is going to make Russia's economic position even weaker.
Should the May 25 elections in Ukraine turn into a successful democratic event, Putin's land and power grab attempt would be contained. The Ukrainians will have a legitimate government and everything will depend on how good they are at getting their own act together.
Unfortunately for the Russians, their rulers don't know how to modernize the country, which will be lurching between the West and China, looking for a way forward. What a shame!
During the Crimea phase, Putin had the initiative, dictated the pace of events: "зеленые человечки", captured government offices, local militias, the referendum, etc. At the time, various Western leaders called Putin often to get an idea what he wants or intends to do next.
For a month or so he seemed unstoppable. The зеленые человечки started showing up in Eastern Ukraine, although the general population didn't support them en masse. Moreover, the threat of Western sanctions and possible negative economic consequences of Putin's Crimea adventure began sinking in. Finally, some time in mid-April, the Russian anti-Maidan march ground to a halt, which was marked by the Geneva agreements.
From being a military confrontation, the war moved into its political and economic phase, where the West has a stronger position. Economically, Russia is a 2-nd world country at best. The growing threat of economic sanctions and diversification of energy consumption in Europe are going to have a major impact on Russian capital investment. The country's economy is already in stagflation; a further escalation in Ukraine is going to make Russia's economic position even weaker.
Should the May 25 elections in Ukraine turn into a successful democratic event, Putin's land and power grab attempt would be contained. The Ukrainians will have a legitimate government and everything will depend on how good they are at getting their own act together.
Unfortunately for the Russians, their rulers don't know how to modernize the country, which will be lurching between the West and China, looking for a way forward. What a shame!